The World Series continues tonight as the Philadelphia Phillies look to take a commanding 3-1 series lead over the Houston Astros in Game 4 at Citizens Bank Park.
The Phillies were able to wheel back staff ace Aaron Nola on regular rest in this spot thanks to a rainout of Game 3 of the Fall Classic on Monday. Can he bounce back from a bad effort in Game 1?
We've covered the standard MLB odds in our Astros vs. Phillies Game 4 picks and predictions but here, I give you my three favorite Aaron Nola MLB picks and predictions for Wednesday, November 2.
Aaron Nola World Series Game 4 prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Aaron Nola World Series Game 4 props
Houston gets its hits
Aaron Nola giving up five or more hits in Game 4 is priced just right, so we’ll make this prop our top play.
He allowed six hits to the Astros in Game 1, in which he was chased after allowing five earned runs over 4 1-3 innings. Nola also issued two walks in that start, which is somewhat uncharacteristic for him.
The Louisiana native is one of the better pitchers in baseball when it comes to command of his stuff, as he surrendered only 29 free passes all season over 205 innings. His 1.3 walks per nine innings figure was the best in the NL among qualified hurlers.
Nola’s aggressiveness is a double-edged sword, as it can lead to a surplus of hits for the opposition, especially when the opponent has a lineup as talented as the Houston Astros do.
Nola demonstrated his unwillingness to back down when he did not pitch around Kyle Tucker after allowing an early home run in Game 1, and Tucker took him deep a second time with runners on base.
This is the pitching prop that bettors appear to have the biggest edge on in Game 4.
Prop: Over 4.5 hits allowed (+100)
No shutout for Nola
Nola may be the staff ace of the Philadelphia Phillies, but he’s no Bob Gibson. He had a losing record this year, as well as a good-but-not-great 3.25 ERA. In short, he won’t be receiving any first-place votes in the NL Cy Young balloting.
Prop bettors should be unafraid to take Nola to give up at least two earned runs in Game 4 of the World Series. He was hardly a paragon of consistency in 2022, as he allowed at least two earned runs in 15 of 32 starts in the regular season.
Nola was also blitzed for a total of 11 earned runs over his last two playoff outings. He’s made 23 combined starts against teams at .500 or better this year, and surrendered at least two earned runs in 13 of those outings, better than half the time.
The Astros were ninth in runs per game in the regular season (4.52), but second in runs per first five innings (2.83), so they know how to jump on starting pitchers. This is a fairly-priced prop, so let’s add it to the docket.
Prop: Over 1.5 earned runs allowed (-127)
Strikeout stuff isn't there
Nola has yet to reach seven strikeouts in a 2022 postseason game, and the way he’s trending heading into this one, he will probably fail to hit the mark once more.
The 29-year-old righty was usually a safe bet to register a ton of strikeouts in the regular season, as he averaged 7.35 Ks per start. However, he didn’t always face a team like Houston, which accumulated the second-fewest strikeouts in the majors this year.
Nola is struggling to fan batters under the bright lights, striking out only six in each of his first three postseason starts before sitting down just five ‘Stros on Friday.
Manager Rob Thomson has a lot less latitude to leave Nola in if he’s struggling in Game 4 and have him “figure it out” on the hill. He has access to his pitching splits just like everyone else, and he can see that Nola authored a .287 opponent batting average with runners in scoring position in the regular season, compared to an overall average of .219.
The greater the likelihood of a quick hook, the easier it is for Under bettors to cash on a starter’s strikeout prop. Most books are at 5.5 strikeouts, but taking the Under at 6.5 is worth the added juice, especially if you’re building a parlay.
Prop: Under 6.5 strikeouts (-148)
