Astros vs Phillies World Series Game 4 Predictions, Picks, Odds: Starters Keep First Inning Scoreless

Game 4 of the World Series takes place on Wednesday night with the Houston Astros looking to bounce back from a lopsided loss to the Philadelphia Phillies yesterday.

The Phillies cruised to an easy victory in Game 3 to take a 2-1 lead in this best-of-seven series and they'll send Aaron Nola to the mound tonight to duel Houston's Cristian Javier.

MLB odds opened with the Stros as slim -122 road favorites for tonight with the Over/Under at 7.5. Here are my best free MLB picks and predictions for Astros vs. Phillies Game 4. Also be sure to check out our World Series Game 4 player prop picks!

Astros vs Phillies Game 4 odds: Moneyline, run line, Over/Under

Astros vs Phillies picks and predictions

It says a lot that Houston's bats got to aces Nola and Zack Wheeler in Games 1 and 2, and still trail this series. Nonetheless, the Astros were shut out by Ranger Suarez and Philadelphia's bullpen last night, and I don't expect many runs in the early going this time. 

Keep in mind that the Astros are batting just .225 with a .690 OPS during the postseason. And while Nola struggled in Game 1, his long-term results suggest that he's likely due for a bounceback game today. 

The Phillies right-hander had an expected ERA of 2.74 during the regular season and in his final start, he dominated the Astros by holding them to two hits through 6 2-3 innings of work. 

The Phillies have been hitting for power during the playoffs but they have a modest .233 batting average. They'll be facing off against Javier, who finished the regular season with an xERA of 2.43 and ranked among the best pitchers in expected slugging percentage. 

Expect a tense atmosphere, especially in the early going between these two pitchers, and bet on neither squad to get on the scoreboard in the first inning.

My best bet: First inning Under 0.5 (-122 at FanDuel)

Astros vs Phillies World Series odds

Teams	Odds to win series
Houston Astros	+130
Philadelphia Phillies	-150

Astros vs Phillies moneyline analysis

Last night's 7-0 victory allowed the Phillies to bounce back from a 5-2 loss in Game 2. Thanks to Monday's game being postponed due to rain, they are able to send Nola back to the mound tonight. 

Nola faced off against Cy Young favorite and future Hall of Famer Justin Verlander in Game 1 but both All-Stars pitchers struggled in a 6-5 Phillies victory. 

The Astros were the more dominant team during the regular season, which is why they entered the World Series as -185 favorites. 

After a sluggish start to the season, the Stros went 95-45 and then promptly swept the Mariners and Yankees in the first two rounds of the playoffs. They have a lineup loaded with sluggers along with a deep pitching staff that has high-end talent in both the rotation and bullpen.

It was a much tougher road to the Fall Classic for the Phillies who finished in third place in the NL East and had to play on the road against the Cardinals in the Wild Card round. It is worth mentioning that they were missing their best hitter in Bryce Harper for a large chunk of the season and they also had one of the worst bullpens in the majors. 

With Harper back in the lineup, the Phillies have been mashing and their bullpen has performed much better during the postseason. Relievers Seranthony Dominguez, Jose Alvarado, Connor Brogdon, David Robertson, and Andrew Bellati have all been very reliable.

The Phillies have gone a commanding 11-3 in the postseason with a run differential of +27. 

Astros vs Phillies Over/Under analysis

Normally the Astros tee off on lefties like Suarez, but they mustered just three singles against him last night while generating just two more singles against Phillies relievers. The Phillies scored seven runs of their own thanks to a whopping five dingers which they hit off Lance McCullers Jr. 

Both of these lineups have plenty of power but as we outlined above, both haven't been making the best contact during the playoffs. That could prove especially tough today with these studs toeing the rubber.

While the Phillies decided to use the rain delay to move Nola up in the rotation, the Astros have decided to hand the pill to Javier and give Verlander another day of rest.

Javier pitched to a sizzling 2.54 ERA with an OBA of .170 during the regular season. Although the 25-year-old doesn't have a ton of big-game experience, he was terrific against the Yankees in Game 3 of the NLCS. 

Nola was hit hard and allowed two walks in Game 1 but he ranked in the top tenth percentile of pitchers in hard-hit rate during the regular season and had the second-lowest walk rate in the majors, so positive regression seems likely. 

Astros vs Phillies trend to know

The Under is 7-0-1 in the Astros' last eight games with the total set at 7-8.5. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Phillies

Astros vs Phillies game info

Starting pitchers

Cristian Javier (12-9, 2.49 ERA): After primarily pitching out of the bullpen in 2021, Javier emerged as an integral part of the Astros' rotation this season. He had a 2.54 ERA with a 3.16 FIP, a 0.95 WHIP, and 184 punchouts across 148 2-3 innings. This is his second start of the postseason and he looked very sharp in Game 3 of the ALCS where he held the Yankees to one hit across 5 1-3 innings of shutout ball. 

Aaron Nola (13-14, 3.38 ERA): Nola had an excellent regular season where he pitched to a 3.25 ERA, with a 2.58 WHIP, 0.96 WHIP, and an MLB-best 8.1 strikeout-to-walk ratio across 32 starts. He was brilliant in his first two starts of the postseason as well, allowing just one run (zero earned) across 12 2-3 innings. However, he was crushed by the Padres in Game 2 of the NLCS and also struggled in the opening game of the World Series when he allowed five runs on six hits and two walks before getting the hook in the fifth inning. 

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