It’s all tied up, folks.
The Astros evened things at two games apiece to set up a thrilling finish to the 2022 World Series. Not only did Houston level the playing field, but it did so in impressive fashion by throwing a combined no-hitter in Game 4.
Will Philadelphia’s bats come back alive on Thursday in the final game of the year at Citizens Bank Park?
Check out our MLB picks and predictions for Game 5 between the Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies on Thursday, November 3 to find out.
Astros vs Phillies Game 5 odds: Moneyline, run line, Over/Under
Astros vs Phillies picks and predictions
The last time a team was held hitless in a World Series game? You’d have to go all the way back to 1956 when the New York Yankees’ Don Larsen threw his legendary perfect game against the Brooklyn Dodgers.
The Astros become the second team in history to accomplish this feat during Wednesday’s Game 4, throwing a combined no-hitter en route to a 5-0 win. Cristian Javier got things started with six innings of scoreless, no-hit ball. Bryan Abreu, Rafael Montero, and Ryan Pressley sealed the deal with a scoreless, no-hit inning apiece.
It was a remarkable turnaround after Tuesday’s Game 3 when the Phillies swatted five home runs off Astros starter Lance McCullers Jr. en route to a 7-0 victory. With such a stark contrast between the lineup’s performance over the last two games, everyone’s eyes will be on the most important game of the series: Game 5.
The Astros turn to Justin Verlander, the favorite to win the American League Cy Young. He was hit hard in Game 1, surrendering five earned runs in a no-decision. I expect a bounceback performance here from the veteran, who has pitched in high-leverage situations countless times in his career despite the lumps he's taken in the World Series.
Verlander’s strikeout prop is set at 5.5 with -130 odds to the Over. He’s struck out more than 5.5 batters in six of his last nine starts, with Game 1 being one of the few exceptions. It’s possible that this is his last start as a member of the Astros considering that can become a free agent once the season ends.
After surrendering 12 runs over 15 innings this postseason, Verlander gets a chance for redemption against a lineup that was held hitless just one day ago while striking out 11 times.
We’ll take Verlander to strike out at least six batters as our best bet.
My best bet: Justin Verlander Over 5.5 strikeouts (-130)
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Astros vs Phillies World Series odds
| Teams | Odds to win series |
|---|---|
 Houston Astros |
-190 |
 Philadelphia Phillies |
+165 |
Astros vs Phillies moneyline analysis
The Astros are significant favorites in Game 5. If you’re looking to play Houston, the best price available on the straight moneyline is -154 at WynnBET at the time of this writing. As for Philadelphia, the home team is +143 to win, also at WynnBET.
Although Noah Syndergaard is tabbed as the Phillies starter, this is essentially a bullpen game on their part. Thor has appeared three times in the postseason, with two of those coming out of the bullpen and the other as a glorified opener. It’s not anticipated that he sees a heavy workload on Thursday, considering he’s pitched a total of 5 1-3 innings during the playoffs.
A bullpen game against the likely American League Cy Young winner? That does seem like a dicey proposition, but the Phillies bullpen has been great this postseason with a 2.55 ERA and 1.03 WHIP.
Houston’s starting pitching advantage is the most significant factor in this handicap, making the Astros a deserved road favorite. Its bullpen has been dominant in the postseason as well, posting an absurd 0.76 postseason ERA.
The Astros are 8-1 in their last nine games against a right-handed starter and have been dominant in the postseason, going 9-2 in their last 11 playoff games.
Astros vs Phillies Over/Under analysis
The total for Game 5 is set at 7.5 across all books as of the time of this writing.
Despite posting just a .219 batting average in the postseason, the Phillies have managed a robust .710 OPS — higher than any other team that played in more than one series. It looked like the Phillies were going to fall in Game 1 after going down 5-0 early, but they rallied back for five runs off Verlander en route to a 6-5 win in extra innings.
Verlander stated that he has been dealing with some mechanical issues in the lower half of his body. Considering that he was dealing with a calf injury over the end of the regular season, that’s worrisome news. He’s 0-6 with a 6.07 ERA in eight career World Series starts and looks to get over that hump thanks to some changes he’s made in his mechanics before this game. It’s hard to overlook those career numbers, but Verlander has been lights out this season and a small sample size of results isn’t always indicative of what’s to come.
The Astros have a .230 batting average and .687 OPS in the postseason. Syndergaard’s 4.43 xERA and 3.83 FIP don’t inspire a ton of confidence, but Phillies manager Rob Thomson should be quick to go to his effective bullpen if Thor does struggle.
The Under has cashed in two straight games and that’s the way I’d look in this matchup once again.
Astros vs Phillies trend to know
The Astros are 9-2 in their last 11 postseason games. Find more MLB betting trends for Astros vs. Phillies
Astros vs Phillies game info
| Location: | Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, PA |
| Date: | Thursday, November 3, 2022 |
| First pitch: | 8:03 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Starting pitchers
Justin Verlander (19-4, 2.18 ERA): Verlander has allowed 12 earned runs across 15 innings this postseason. That’s a far drop from the regular season when he posted a stellar 1.75 ERA and 0.83 WHIP en route to an 18-4 record. This will mark his ninth start in the World Series and he is still searching for his first win.
Noah Syndergaard (5-2), 3.90 ERA): Syndergaard is likely to function as a de-facto opener in Game 5. This will mark only his second start of the postseason as he’s thrown only 5 1-3 innings since the playoffs began. In his other start, he allowed one rearned run across three innings against the Altanta Braves.
Astros vs Phillies latest injuries
Astros vs Phillies weather
Astros vs Phillies Game 5 odds and prop bets
| Game 5 run line | Astros -1.5 (+110) / Phillies +1.5 (-130) |
| Game 5 moneyline | Astros -155 / Phillies +135 |
| Game 5 total | Over 7.5 (-110) / Under 7.5 (-110) |
| First score/result | Astros -210 / Phillies +155 |
| A run in the first inning | Over 0.5 (+100) / Under 0.5 (-130) |
| Extra innings | Yes +650 / No -1,100 |
| Astros total runs | Over 4.5 (+105) / Under 4.5 (-135) |
| Phillies total runs | Over 3.5 (+110) / Under 3.5 (-140) |
