2023 World Series Betting Preview: Texas Takes Us Home

After two roller-coaster Championship Series, the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks emerged from their respective brackets to form one of the most unexpected World Series matchups in recent memory.

The Rangers surely expected to be here, spending a ton of recent money to land stars like Jacob deGrom, Corey Seager, and Marcus Semien. And, while they did lose deGrom, they snagged Max Scherzer at this year’s trading deadline. After starting out hot versus their in-state rivals, they managed to survive a collapse and take two in a row in Houston to eliminate the Astros.

The Diamondbacks also completed a comeback of their own against the Phillies, who were the favorites in World Series odds for a time, coming back from 2-0 down to tie the series and surviving a Game 6 in Philly down 3-2. Their pitching came alive in a big way to drive the team to this point.

Let’s get into how this one will shake out, going over the MLB odds with analysis to go along with our MLB playoff predictions and MLB picks. Game 1 is set for tonight, Friday, October 27 at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas.

2023 World Series odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each team from regulated sportsbooks. Analysis below may not match live odds.

Texas Rangers breakdown

Strengths

The Texas Rangers’ .825 OPS this postseason leads all teams and they’ve swatted 22 home runs in 12 games — a mark that was only topped by the Phillies’ 24 over 13 games.

While pitching isn’t quite a strength, it’s worth noting that Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi have been excellent this postseason, as have Jose Leclerc and Josh Sborz at the back end of the bullpen. It’s also helpful that, while a lot of balls have been put into play, the Rangers sport one of the best infield defenses in all of baseball.

Weaknesses

For as well as Montgomery and Eovaldi have pitched, this pitching staff has had issues getting outs. The Rangers’ rotation has posted a good, not great 3.62 ERA this postseason, but the bullpen has been the real cause of concern. Their ERA stands at an unimpressive 3.72, ranked eighth among the 12 teams to play a game this postseason, and outside of Leclerc and Sborz there is little here that can be trusted.

Cody Bradford has had to pitch much more than the Rangers probably would have wanted, and Aroldis Chapman has fallen of significantly since his early-season renaissance with the Kansas City Royals.

Maybe it's recency bias, but Marcus Semien also has to be considered a big hole in the lineup at this point, hitting a team-worst .192 in 12 games with a measly .507 OPS. He is the leadoff hitter for this team, so that’s of grave concern if he can't emerge from this funk.

X-factor: Max Scherzer

Max Scherzer, the former Diamondback himself, was shelved for most of the late summer due to a shoulder injury. And he’s returned to the Rangers rotation to poor results with seven runs charged to his name in just 6 2/3 innings across two postseason starts.

Now, Scherzer did have a long layoff to deal with following what wasn’t the worst season in the world, and he also had to face a ferocious Astros lineup. Considering his season and his 3.58 postseason ERA prior to the Astros series, there’s certainly a world where he contributes in this series. With how badly the Rangers bullpen has pitched, they need him.

Arizona Diamondbacks breakdown

Strengths

This Arizona Diamondbacks team has few discernable strengths aside from a select few players and great vibes in the playoffs. The Diamondbacks rotation and bullpen as a whole hasn’t been great this postseason — or all year long, really — but Paul Sewald and Kevin Ginkel have been nearly untouchable in relief. This was also a very poor offensive club during the year, but one thing we have seen over the last couple of weeks is the Diamondbacks’ ability to hit home runs with 15 coming in 12 games. That wasn't exactly the name of their game in the regular season, though, as they relied more on speed (led by Corbin Carroll), trailing only the Cincinnati Reds in total stolen bases in 2023.

Weaknesses

Arizona was just 18th in wRC+ this season and unlike what we’ve seen over the last couple of weeks, didn’t pack a punch in the power department. The Diamondbacks offense is built around ground balls and speed, but without many contributions from Carroll up until Game 7 of the NLCS, this was not a lineup worth fearing.

The Diamondbacks rotation posted an ERA near 5.00 in the NLCS and despite three solid starters in Zac Gallen, Brandon Pfaadt, and Merrill Kelly, it has to be considered a question mark. Kelly, specifically, has alternated between looking untouchable and very hittable, sandwiching a rough four-run (on three homers) appearance between two dynamite outings this postseason.  And this bullpen, much like Texas, should break at a certain point after a brutal season.

X-factor: Brandon Pfaadt

Oh, you thought I’d go with a guy like Carroll or Ketel Marte here? Well, this is really the guy who will make or break the series.

Pfaadt, a rookie, had a very volatile season but has now amassed an impressive 2.70 ERA in four starts this postseason, showcasing incredible command of his arsenal and a nasty sweeper. Was it just that the Phillies have trouble with pitchers they’ve never seen before, or is this the level we can expect from Pfaadt? It's worth noting that he came into the season as Arizona's most highly-touted pitching prospect, so he could just finally be finding his footing (and his sweeper).

Given how unevenly Kelly pitched against the Phillies — and how he’s been running for years — two quality starts from Pfaadt could swing this series towards Arizona.

2023 World Series schedule

Date	Matchup	Time
Friday, October 27	Game 1: Arizona at Texas	8:03 p.m. ET
Saturday, October 28	Game 2: Arizona at Texas	8:03 p.m. ET
Monday, October 30	Game 3: Texas at Arizona	8:03 p.m. ET
Tuesday, October 31	Game 4: Texas at Arizona	8:03 p.m. ET
Wednesday, November 1 (if necessary)	Game 5: Texas at Arizona	8:03 p.m. ET
Friday, November 3 (if necessary)	Game 6: Arizona at Texas	8:03 p.m. ET
Saturday, November 4 (if necessary)	Game 7: Arizona at Texas	8:03 p.m. ET

2023 World Series prediction

Under 50.5 runs (-110)

We saw fireworks ensue in the ALCS when the Rangers and Astros engaged in slugfest after slugfest, but it’s important to remember that not only did both teams trot out some questionable pitchers, but every game was played in a hitter’s park.

Home run-happy Texas is going to struggle in the games played in Arizona — one of the hardest parks to clear the fences — and I think a generally poor Diamondbacks offense is going to come crashing back to Earth against what should be a formidable rotation of Eovaldi, Montgomery and Scherzer.

I can see Texas wrapping this series up inside of five games, and I definitely don’t think it’ll go the full seven. Regardless, this series should be filled with low-scoring affairs given the shift to the spacious Chase Field for the middle three games of this series. I don’t even think these teams will return to Texas, which puts a significant amount of value on this number.

Pick: Under 50.5 runs scored in World Series (-110 at DraftKings)

Covers MLB betting tools

Pages related to this topic