The Houston Astros accomplished something truly special when they no-hit the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 4 of the World Series on Wednesday night.
Cristian Javier, Bryan Abreu, Rafael Montero, and Ryan Pressly etched their names into the history book beside Don Larsen and Roy Halladay as the only pitchers to throw a no-hitter in MLB postseason history.
Now Justin Verlander will be asked to follow that act in Astros vs. Phillies Game 5 at Citizens Bank Park, but bettors should be skeptical that he can.
Here are our three favorite Justin Verlander MLB prop picks for Thursday, November 3.
Justin Verlander World Series Game 5 prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Player World Series Game 5 props
Phillies batters get back on track
A good bettor never allows themselves to be a prisoner of the moment. Yes, the Philadelphia Phillies got no-hit in Game 4, but that doesn’t mean that everyone in their lineup suddenly forgot how to swing a bat. Both the line and the price look generous on the Over for hits against Justin Verlander.
While it’s true that Verlander led the AL in hits allowed per nine innings this season (6.0), bettors should realize that he’s allowed 7.1 hits per nine innings in his postseason career. That figure jumps to 8.6 when restricting the sample to World Series affairs.
Philadelphia got to the Fall Classic largely on the strength of their lineup, which was ninth in hits in the regular season. They averaged 7.43 hits per playoff game prior to last night’s historic effort by Houston’s pitching staff.
Bryce Harper is usually integral to the Phils’ success on a daily basis, and Game 5 should be no different. He’s 3-for-8 lifetime against Verlander, so look for him to lead the hit parade.
Prop: Over 4.5 hits allowed (+100)
Another rough World Series start for JV
Verlander has practically tossed an entire season’s worth of innings in his postseason career and has authored a respectable 3.69 ERA over 202 2-3 frames. But for some strange reason, the World Series has proved to be his kryptonite. The vig isn’t very appealing on the Over for earned runs surrendered by the Astros ace, but this looks like a solid addition to any parlay.
Verlander is 0-6 with a 6.07 ERA in eight starts (43 innings) in his World Series career. That includes his disastrous Game 1 start in this year’s Fall Classic, where he coughed up five earned runs over five frames. Verlander held the Yankees to one run over six frames in his lone ALCS start this year but was rocked by the Mariners in the ALDS to the tune of six earned runs allowed over four frames.
The 39-year-old hurler might be running out of gas in his first year back from Tommy John surgery. A quality start could be hard to come by against a Philly lineup that will be more motivated than ever after being embarrassed on a national stage in Game 4.
Prop: Over 1.5 earned runs allowed (-155)
Early exit leads to few strikeouts
If Verlander is giving up early hits and runs, manager Dusty Baker will have to give his ace a quick hook in a pivotal Game 5. Naturally, fewer batters faced will mean fewer chances for strikeouts from the Virginia native, so bettors should be bearish on his reaching six Ks on Thursday night.
Verlander averaged 9.5 strikeouts per nine innings in the regular season, his lowest figure in that department since 2015. The Phillies have been fairly disciplined at the plate in these playoffs, striking out 9.4 times per game.
JV tallied just five strikeouts in Game 1 of the World Series and recorded only three Ks in his ALDS start. His 11-strikeout effort against an overmatched Bombers offense notwithstanding, it’s not been a great postseason for Verlander in this area.
The margin for error looks small for prop players in this market, but the plus-money price on the Under helps make this play appealing.
Prop: Under 5.5 strikeouts (+120)
