Rangers vs Diamondbacks World Series Game 5 Predictions, Picks, Odds: Hoist the Trophy, Texas

The Texas Rangers are one win away from claiming their first World Series in franchise history after beating the Arizona Diamondbacks last night.

At the onset of this series, my MLB playoff predictions had the Rangers getting the job done in five. It felt like the youthful Snakes had run their luck and some of their energy dry. I think we’ve seen some of the residual effects in this series — particularly last night. The final score was 11-7, but it was never that close. Texas punched Arizona in the mouth early with homers from Marcus Semien and Corey Seager, and it was over once it led 10-0.

World Series odds have the Rangers pegged to win it all and MLB odds see Game 5 as a virtual pick'em.

What’s the best bet in tonight's matchup? Find out in our MLB picks and our Rangers vs. Diamondbacks player prop picks for Game 5 of the World Series.

Rangers vs Diamondbacks Game 5 odds: Moneyline, run line, Over/Under

Rangers vs Diamondbacks Game 5 odds

Rangers vs Diamondbacks picks and predictions

“It ends tonight” is not just the cry from an early 2000s punk rock song, it’s also the story of Game 5. Getting Texas Rangers odds priced around a coin-flip in this spot, I’m taking them to finish off this series. 

Texas has proven this isn’t just some type of anomaly. It has now won 10 straight road games in the postseason, breaking the record previously held by the 1996 New York Yankees. It’s been too overwhelming not to factor into a handicap, and you must figure it into this one. Of course, that’s a small part of this handicap. The pitching matchup is what takes center stage.

Zac Gallen’s ERA this season was fog in the mirrors. His expected ERA expected FIP, along with a few other deeper underlying numbers, showed that. There was so much made about his home and road splits, but in reality, his hard-hit issues would always catch up with him no matter where he was playing. It’s happened in the postseason, and he’s not delivered any type of start you’d expect from an ace. He’s now on a streak of allowing three or more earned runs in three straight starts this postseason. These aren’t the issues you want when facing an offense that became the first team to score double-digit runs in a World Series game with two outs just one night ago.

The first time Gallen faced this Rangers team, he gave up just three earned runs, but it certainly could have been worse. Texas had several hits north of 100 mph in exit velocity that just ended as unlucky hard outs. A bit more fortunate and the six runs the Rangers finished with is a higher number. Texas will see plenty of fastballs tonight, and it’s thrived against them all season. They enter this matchup with a lineup with six players hitting above .280 against the four-seamer. These are all significant issues for Gallen, and I don’t expect him to have much success navigating it. 

The Arizona Diamondbacks thrived against Nathan Eovaldi when he faced them for the first time in this series, as they plated five runs in just over four innings. It was the worst postseason start for him by a wide margin but he’s much more likely to bounce back. The metrics don’t align with that type of production against him regularly. Eovaldi has been an elite ground ball pitcher all season, and that’s also been an issue for the D-backs. Arizona ranks in the Top 5 in most ground balls in the league and also the Top 10 of “topped” contact. Expect Eovaldi to get back to his bread and butter tonight.

I made the price for the Rangers -121. The way this team is rolling at the moment, there may even be a more significant edge than that. Either way, this is a playable number, and I’ll happily lay it expecting Texas to complete a lengthy journey of winning its first World Series. 

My best bet: Rangers moneyline (-110 at bet365)

Rangers vs Diamondbacks same-game parlay

Rangers moneyline

Josh Jung Over 1.5 total bases

+220 at bet365

We hit our overly simplified same-game parlay yesterday, and we’re looking to do it again with the same thought process. We’re taking our best bet and pairing it with one player to go over his bases total. 

That player is Josh Jung. The star rookie has been almost lost in the shuffle of the ultra-hot Corey Seager and Marcus Semien. He’s gone Over this number in two of his last four games. Tonight, he gets a fastball-heavy pitcher, and he has the second hardest-hit rate against a fastball on this roster. Remember, Jung was potentially on the fast track to winning AL Rookie of the Year before he was sidelined for much of the second half of the season with an injury. He has picked up where he left off in October, slashing .311/.333/.557 with three homers and four doubles in 16 games.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Rangers vs Diamondbacks World Series odds

Team
Rangers	-1,200	<1,200>	-1,100	-1,100	-1,429
Diamondbacks	+850	+850	+700	+700	+800

Rangers vs Diamondbacks moneyline and Over/Under analysis

The Rangers do it tonight. It’s our best bet. 

There are multiple reasons, but one is how massive of a pitching advantage I feel they have. Eovaldi has been a much more consistent pitcher this season and throughout the postseason. I’ll back him here, especially given the aspect of him coming off the worst start he’s made this October.

I lean Under on the total. 

I’ve had the fortune of being a perfect 4-0 on the totals this World Series, and I’m hoping to make it 5-0 with a 1-unit play on the Under of 8.5 at +100. It’s aligned with my projections, but there are a few things that aren’t fully captured.

One of those is Arizona's youth, which I expect to show in an elimination game. There will be some players pressing at the plate, which will likely result in many whiffs. The other will be the quick hook Arizona pitchers will get. It’s win-or-go-home for the Snakes, so any pitcher who can give a few outs is an option. 

Rangers vs Diamondbacks Betting Trend

The Rangers have won three of the last four matchups between these two teams. Find more MLB betting trends for Rangers vs. Diamondbacks

Rangers vs Diamondbacks Game 5 odds and prop bets

Rangers vs Diamondbacks game info

Starting pitchers

Nathan Eovaldi (4-0, 3.52 ERA): The steadying force of the Rangers pitching staff. When other vital parts of the Texas rotation struggled or got hurt, Eovaldi continued to thrive. He’s been good in these playoffs, too. His last start against this Arizona team was an outlier compared to the rest of the postseason. 

Zac Gallen (2-2, 5.27 ERA): Gallen's rough postseason has been closely aligned with his regular season: good at home and bad on the road. He’s only had one home start in this postseason, and he did give up 4 runs, however, they came late, and he generally pitched better than at most any point in these playoffs. The overall issue with Gallen is the hard-hit ball, ranking in the Bottom 5% of baseball in hard-hit rate and exit velocity.

Rangers vs Diamondbacks injury report

Rangers vs Diamondbacks weather

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