With his first-inning home run on Tuesday night, Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman made history by becoming the first player in MLB history to hit a home run in each of the first four games of a single World Series.
Dating back to his 2020 run with the Atlanta Braves, Freeman has cleared the fence in each of his last six total World Series games.
The inevitable question for our Dodgers vs. Yankees predictions and MLB picks now is, will the favorite in the World Series MVP odds race hit a home run in a fifth straight game in the 2024 Fall Classic?
Freddie Freeman home run odds
Prediction: Under 0.5 home runs (-700 at BetMGM)
Freddie Freeman entered the World Series looking like a shell of himself. A hobbled ankle kept him out of the starting lineup twice during the NLCS vs. the New York Mets, and it seemed entirely possible, if not likely, that he'd be an afterthought in the Fall Classic.
Well, the World Series is a magical time and he has done his best Kirk Gibson impression by homering in all four games against the New York Yankees, all starting with his walk-off grand slam in Game 1 that will be shown in highlight packages for years to come.
IT'S GONE
— MLB (@MLB) October 26, 2024
IT'S GONE
IT'S GONE
IT'S GONE
FREDDIE FREEMAN #WALKOFF GRAND SLAM pic.twitter.com/LlVU1ZGyGx
Magical or not, I'm not banking on the Los Angeles Dodgers star to do it again. Game 4 starter Luis Gil has considerably worse command than Yankees ace Gerrit Cole, who toes the rubber tonight. I expect Cole to do everything in his power to avoid allowing Freeman to get to him.
Freeman was technically awarded a triple in his first AB vs. Cole in Game 1, but he barely made contact, flipping it to left field, where it bounced down the line and caromed off the wall, fooling outfielder Alex Verdugo in the process. At best, it should have been a double... and a fluky one at that.
FREDDIE LEGS OUT A TRIPLE 👏
— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) October 26, 2024
Watch the #WorldSeries in 4K on FOX & the FOX Sports App: https://t.co/ATi1Zc0LHu pic.twitter.com/ECYcJhqOzN
A better betting market to target for Freeman
This is to say Cole won't get beat by Freeman. Not like that, anyway. Instead of going for or against the long ball — no one is betting -700 on Freddie Freeman home run odds and nor should they — I would rather target an MLB player props market like Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI, which can be had at -110 at BetMGM. Conversely, Over 1.5 total bases is a robust +145.
Freeman does not strike out often anyway, and he's been even more consistent at making contact and more aggressive with his swing (walking in 4.0% of his playoff plate appearances compared to 12.2% in the regular season). Small sample size, sure, but he benefits from hitting behind Mookie Betts and Shohei Ohtani. He could drive one of those guys in with a home run, but, more likely, he could get the job done with a clutch single or double.
I'll tip my cap to Freeman if he can find the bleachers once more. He's already cemented his legacy in baseball lore and it's certainly not out of the question. But when banking on probabilities, this has simply never happened before and I'd want longer odds than +500 to make any significant wager on history being made.
Best bets: Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 H+R+RBI (-110 at BetMGM) and Freddie Freeman Over 1.5 total bases (+145 at BetMGM)
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