It's Game 2 of the American League Conference Series between the New York Yankees and Houston Astros. After a 7-0 victory last night, the Bronx Bombers will look to upset the home side and take a commanding 2-0 series lead back to New York.
The Astros send eight-time All-Star Justin Verlander to the mound while the visitors will start left-hander James Paxton. We break down the odds for this postseason matchup and give you our best bets and predictions. **video
NEW YORK YANKEES VS HOUSTON ASTROS (-155, 7.5 @ BETAMERICA)
QUICK HITTER
If the Astros lose this game they would head to New York with an 0-2 deficit to play three-straight games at Yankee Stadium. Considering that the Yankees have gone 59-24 at home this year, that would practically be a death sentence, so count on Houston coming into this game extremely motivated to build an early lead.
Fortunately for the home side, they score 0.68 runs per game in the first inning, a period where Paxton gets absolutely wrecked. Paxton gave up 12 homers and 29 runs during the first inning through 29 starts this season.
Verlander is much better during the first inning, but even his ERA of 3.18 during that period is higher than his ERA during any other of the first six innings. Expect there to be a run in the opening inning.
PICK: Run in the first inning - Yes (+100)
FIRST FIVE INNINGS
Verlander is coming off a rough outing against the Rays but he's considered one of the best in the business for a reason. He absolutely dominated opponents during the regular season going 21-6 with a 2.58 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and a batting average allowed of .172.
Paxton had a solid year going 15-6 with a 3.82 ERA and a 1.28 WHIP but those numbers aren't anywhere near Verlander's stratosphere. When you factor in Paxton's struggles on the road, where he posted a 4.33 ERA and a .274 BAA in 14 starts, the pitching advantage in this game clearly goes towards Houston. Back them get throught the first five innings with a lead.
PICK: First Five Innings Runline Houston -0.5 (-121)
TEAM/PLAYER PROP
Astros second baseman Jose Altuve is one of the best infielders in the game. He's coming off another terrific regular season where he had a slugging percentage of .550, while mashing a career high 31 home runs in just 124 games.
Altuve has been even better in the playoffs, batting .348 with a pair of doubles and three homers in six postseason games. When you consider that in his career he's recorded 10 hits in 30 at bats against Paxton, he looks like a good bet to go Over his total bases.
PICK: Jose Altuve Over 1.5 total bases (+105)
FULL GAME TOTAL
The O/U for this game is set at a low 7.5 because of the caliber of the starting pitchers but there's plenty of reason to back this one going over.
We already discussed Paxton's struggles on the road but Verlander isn't in the greatest position for success either. The Cy Young candidate is vulnerable to the long ball, giving up 38 dingers in 36 total starts this year. And the Yankees dig the long ball, going yard an incredible 306 times during the regular season and another eight times through four games in the postseason.
The Yankees plated 6.2 runs per game on the road this season, while the Astros averaged 5.93 runs per game at home. With two loaded lineups consider the Over.
PICK: Over 7.5 (-115)
FULL GAME SIDE
The Astros have the edge in starting pitching but they also have the edge in relievers. Houston's bullpen had a 3.75 ERA with a BAA of .226, slightly better than New York's 4.08 ERA and .242 BAA.
There are a couple more reasons why the starting pitching will be the deciding factor tonight. Verlander has a history of playoff success against the Yankees going 4-0 with a 2.33 ERA in six postseason starts versus the Bronx Bombers. And the Astros love to hit against lefties like Paxton, recording an OPS of .868 against southpaws.
With the Astros winning 10 of their last 14 home games against the Yankees back them again on Sunday night.
PICK: Moneyline Houston -155
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