Yankees vs Astros Predictions, Picks, Odds: Rare Road Sweep for Bombers

Sunday Night Baseball welcomes us to the conclusion of a series between the New York Yankees and Houston Astros.

To my surprise and oddsmakers alike, the Yankees have taken the first two games of this series and will be looking for the sweep tonight. They won last night by a score of 5-4 when the Bombers plated two runs in the top of the fifth inning, and no runs would be scored the rest of the night.

Though they've given up a bit of leverage in the race, the Astros remain in the hunt for the AL West crown and enter tonight just one game back of the first-place Seattle Mariners.

Find out where the best value lies in our MLB picks and predictions for the New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros on Sunday, September 3.

Yankees vs Astros odds

Yankees vs Astros predictions

A week ago, I certainly didn't envision that I'd be sitting here considering a Yankees moneyline bet against the Astros before Sunday Night Baseball. Had you told me the Yanks would be going for the sweep, I'd have told you that you were crazy. But that's where we're at. And although it's likely all for naught, New York has flipped the script on some emotions surrounding the end of its season in this series.

Last night was the first time since 1970 that the Yankees had four or more players under 24 with RBIs in the same game. The youth moment has sparked some offensive improvement down the stretch, and manager Aaron Boone praised the number of competitive bats last night in the post-game. Considering that, I'm taking the Yankees tonight to complete the sweep as my best bet.

Cristian Javier takes the Astros mound tonight, and his fastball struggles have been at the heart of his issues this season. It was a dominant pitch a season ago and has been through most of his career. Sure, it still produced a run value of 4, which is above the league average, but that's a far cry from what we saw the previous two seasons with numbers of 18 and 10. Also, teams have slugged .482 this season against it, which is easily the worst number of his career.

By any definable metric, the Yankees have not been an excellent offensive team this season. The one bright spot, though? You guessed it, what it's done against the fastball, and particularly players involved in this youth movement. Depending on the lineup we get tonight, the Yankees could have anywhere from four to five players with a run value of +5 against the fastball this season. I'm expecting them to take advantage of this decent mismatch tonight.

I saw this one as a coin-flip game based on my projections. Given the mismatch the Yankees with Javier and his fastball on the mound, I'm pushed over the edge to take the visitors. They don't need much scoring tonight, given the Astros' recent offensive slide, ranking 21st in runs per game over their last five. Conversely, the Yankees offense has played much better lately. Grab New York tonight — it shouldn't be this price.

My best bet: Yankees moneyline (+120 at bet365)

Yankees vs Astros same-game parlay

Yankees moneyline

Anthony Volpe Over 1.5 total bases

Cristian Javier Over 2.5 earned runs

+425 at bet365

We're taking our best bet on the Yankees' moneyline tonight and making a highly correlated parlay.

Rookie shortstop Anthony Volpe has been electric lately and will be the second-best fastball hitter in New York's lineup tonight. He ranks first in wRC+ for the Yankees and has posted a .805 OPS over his last 250 plate appearances. He should continue rolling tonight.

We're finishing things with a bet on Javier to give up three or more earned runs. This should be self-explanatory. His fastball struggles should continue, and the Yankees are in an excellent position to take advantage of it.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Yankees vs Astros moneyline and Over/Under analysis

I didn't mention Yankees right-hander Michael King earlier, but we can discuss him here. King has quietly had an excellent season for the Yankees. The 2.96 ERA is beyond respectable and his 3.45 expected ERA isn't far off.

King's strength has been his ability to induce swings and misses at an extraordinarily high clip. He can have some success with this tonight against the Astros. Houston only strikes out a little, but it's a team that relies on barreling balls and, on occasion, delivering the long ball. King has been able to generate those swings and misses while avoiding being barreled up with a number that's in the Top 10% of baseball.

If you're on either side tonight with this total, you must lean to the Under, but I'm not playing it. My projections directly align with the total we've gotten from MLB odds. A good approach would be to get involved live if a few runs are scored early. Otherwise, it's a firm fade for me.

While they've been fine offensively for the majority of the season, the Astros have taken a recent downswing. There's no value at the current number.

Trend to know

The New York Yankees have hit the first five innings (F5) moneyline in nine of their last 11 games (+7.99 Units / 59% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs Astros

Yankees vs Astros game info

Starting pitchers

Michael King (3-5, 2.96 ERA): King has been elite at producing swings and misses with a whiff rate and K rate in the Top 15% of the league. Despite this, he has struggled with command on occasion, resulting in walks. He has mitigated damage in those instances by being a strikeout-heavy pitcher who can produce many swings and misses.

Cristian Javier (9-2, 4.66 ERA): Given his metrics, it's hard to say that Javier deserves nine wins on the season. Javier has a barrel rate in the Bottom 20% of the league and a hard-hit rate that's just about league average. His fastball went from producing a batting average below .200 a season ago to one above .250 this season.

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