Yankees vs Blue Jays Prediction, Picks, & Odds for Tonight’s MLB Game

Things have not gone as planned for the Toronto Blue Jays this season but led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., the bats are starting to come around, just in time for the start of a massive four-game set against the first-place New York Yankees.

The Yanks are also searching for some answers heading into this series but the MLB odds like the Bronx Bombers to strike first in this series. 

With that in mind, my Yankees vs. Blue Jays predictions and MLB picks are focused on tonight’s total. Does the 8.5 stand a chance? 

Yankees vs Blue Jays prediction

My best bet
Over 8.5 (-118 at PROLINE+)

My analysis

The Toronto Blue Jays got an unexpected day off with yesterday’s series finale against the Boston Red Sox getting postponed due to rain. But maybe didn’t want the day off as it looked like their bats were starting to get going, plating five or more runs in three straight games.

Luckily, I think New York Yankees starter Carlos Rodon will help facilitate them. The veteran left-hander hadn’t been giving up many runs this season, however, his advanced numbers said a regression was bound it happen. And it has.

Rodon has been rocked to the tune of 12 runs allowed on a whopping 18 hits in 8 2/3 innings of work over his last two starts. His expected ERA now sits at 4.59 while his opponent's expected batting average is .259. Those rank in the 26^th and 43^rd percentiles among MLB pitchers.

The 31-year-old is a fly-ball pitcher who is getting squared up too much. He ranks in the 16^th percentile or worse in average exit velocity, barrel rate, and hard-hit percentage and while the Blue Jays have battled their consistency at the dish, led by Vladimir Guerrero Jr., things are starting to come around, scoring 20 runs over their last three games.

Rodon’s last start against the Jays was back on April 16, which lasted just four innings after he allowed three runs on five hits and four walks. 

Toronto counters Rodon with this season’s best starter, Jose Berrios. So, we’re taking the Jays as home dogs here, right? Well, not so fast. 

Berrios also comes into this one in a slump. In back-to-back starts against the Cleveland Guardians Berrios has allowed nine runs on 14 hits over 11 innings, and like Rodon, the advanced numbers said something like this was bound to happen. 

The 30-year-old right-hander has an xERA of 4.77, more than a run higher than his ERA while his .277 xBA ranks in the 12^th percentile. Oh, and even though he hasn’t faced the Yanks yet this season, they’ve been a big problem for him in the past.

Current Yankees batters have tagged Berrios for a.280 xBA and a.521 xSLG where it’s not surprising that Aaron Judge has done the bulk of the damage. 

Mix in two sus bullpens that rank 22nd and 23^rd respectively in xFIP and this game has all the makings of an Over. Something that has happened in four of the six meetings between these AL East rivals this season.

Blue Jays star player prop

My best bet
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Over 0.5 RBIs (+145 at PROLINE+)

For all the Blue Jays problems this season, you can’t put any blame on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Toronto’s star first baseman is doing all he can to carry this offense.

Vladdy is hitting .330 with a .898 OPS since May 5 and he’s taken it to the next level lately with the return of his power. He’s upped those numbers to .409 and 1.364 over his last five games which includes three doubles, three dingers and 10 runs batted in and I like him to drive in another one tonight.

For starters, the Jays are at the very least trying to get their hottest hitters ahead of Vladdy in the lineup so he actually has someone to drive in. Second, he has solid numbers in his career vs. Rodon, going 4-6 with three walks. That’s good for a .446 xBA and a .519 xSLG.

Guerrero has driven in at least one run in four of his last five games and at this price, our Covers Prop Projections have this as a five-star play.

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Yankees vs Blue Jays odds

Yankees vs Blue Jays live odds

Yankees vs Blue Jays opening odds

• Run line: New York -1.5 +120 | Toronto +1.5 -140
• Moneyline: New York -135 | Toronto +115
• Over/Under: Over 8.0 | Under 8.0

Yankees vs Blue Jays spread and Over/Under analysis

• The Blue Jays opened this AL East matchup as +115 home underdogs and that's approximately where they remain as of Thursday afternoon.
• The Blue Jays and Yankees have split their six meetings this season. Toronto just snapped a seven-game losing streak before this game, while New York has dropped eight of its last 10 games.
• The total hit the board at an even 8.0 but early bettors quickly jumped on that number driving it up to the current 8.5.
• The Blue Jays have been an Under team with Berrios pitching this season, but his recent slump and numbers vs. the Yankees has me going the other way. Toronto has also cashed the Over in three straight games while New York is 8-2 to the Over in its last 10 games overall.

Yankees vs Blue Jays trend

The Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 25 games for +10.10 Units and a 37% ROI. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Blue Jays

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