The Subway Series begins in Queens tonight when the New York Mets host the New York Yankees, and while the Bombers have been much more successful overall this year, it's the Amazins who enter this series on a roll.
Find out why my Yankees vs. Mets predictions and MLB picks for Tuesday, June 25 are focusing on Brandon Nimmo's recent hot streak at the plate.
Yankees vs Mets prediction
My best bet
Brandon Nimmo Over 0.5 runs (+123 at BetRivers)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
June, for whatever reason, has been a miserable month in recent years for the New York Mets. However, that's not been the case in 2024. The Mets are 13-6 since June 1, and that includes consecutive losses to start the month.
The Amazins have been getting the job done with hitting, averaging an even six runs per game in June. And right at the heart of this productive run has been Brandon Nimmo.
Nimmo has typically been the Mets leadoff man in parts of nine years with the team, but he's found a home at No. 2 while flip-flopping with Francisco Lindor. He's hitting .324 this month and has clubbed four homers in his last six games.
He's also been part of many a productive inning of late, as he's crossed the plate at least once in nine of his last 10 overall. That's why I can't figure out why I'm getting this good a price on Nimmo to score a run tonight, but I won't look a gift horse in the mouth.
Nimmo's small sample of at-bats vs. New York Yankees starter Gerrit Cole (2-for-6, no walks) is not something you'll want to hang your hat on, and Nimmo might only face Cole two or three times in just his second start back from major surgery. Cole lasted only 62 pitches vs. the Orioles in his 2024 debut last week.
Nimmo should get a chance or two against a Yankees bullpen that's been horrible in June with the 22nd-ranked ERA (4.54) and 24th-ranked strand rate (67.9%) in baseball. Once Nimmo finds his way on, his teammates should be ready to knock him in. I'm not counting on Nimmo's power surge continuing, but it's nice to have the chance that Nimmo will go yard and record a run without any help in my back pocket.
Yankees vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Brandon Nimmo Over 0.5 runs
Francisco Alvarez Over 0.5 hits
Mets moneyline
Francisco Alvarez has been on a heater over his last six games, going 11-for-22 at the dish with a pair of homers. I won't get too greedy and target the total bases or RBI markets with Alvarez and just settle for him to get a hit at the bottom half of the Mets order tonight.
I'll wrap things up with the Mets moneyline, which is listed as high as +126 as of Tuesday morning. Although I'm not incredibly confident in the abilities of Mets starter David Peterson, I think the Mets bullpen — fourth in ERA this month at 2.67 — can bail him out even with Edwin Diaz suspended.
The Yankees are just 3-7 across their last 10 games, posting a mediocre 4.3 runs per game, down from their season average of 4.99.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Mets odds
Yankees vs Mets live odds
Yankees vs Mets opening odds
- Run line: New York (AL) -1.5 | New York (NL) +1.5
- Moneyline: New York (AL) -143 | New York (NL) +132
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Yankees vs Mets spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Yankees opened as high as -156 moneyline favorites, but that line quickly came down 10-15 cents, and that's where it resides as of Tuesday morning.
- Wagering on the total has been much more active, with the initial line of 8 being bet up to 8.5 in short order. After briefly touching 9 at some shops, the total has come back down to 8.5 across the board.
- Despite the Yankees' recent brown-out at the plate, they're still 14-6-1 to the Over in June. The Mets are an even 9-9-1 to the Over this month.
Yankees vs Mets trend
The Mets have cashed the moneyline in 13 of their last 17 games (+9.05 units / 43% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs Mets.
Yankees vs Mets game info
| Location: | Citi Field, Flushing, Queens |
| Date: | Tuesday, 6-25-2024 |
| First pitch: | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TBS |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Gerrit Cole (0-0, 4.50 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher: | David Peterson (3-0, 3.97 ERA) |
Yankees vs Mets latest injuries
Yankees vs Mets weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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