The Orioles moved their left field wall back, but will it keep this one a low-scoring affair?
The Yankees are rolling. They’ve won their first two series of the season, exhibiting some excellence at the plate and answering many questions about their offense that arose after a brutal end to the 2022 season.
Meanwhile, the Orioles have been hanging in there at 3-3, but can’t feel too great about their chances here against a bitter rival.
Will Baltimore strike first in this enticing series? Let’s break down Yankees vs. Orioles in our MLB picks and predictions.
Yankees vs Orioles odds
Yankees vs Orioles predictions
The biggest storyline heading into Friday is going to be the new dimensions at Camden Yards. The Baltimore Orioles moved the left field fence back by 26.5 feet and raised the wall six feet, which should take away some of the home runs we’ve been accustomed to seeing in Baltimore. While the team maintains it should remain a hitter’s park, time will tell.
I do think with this narrative, many will be quick to grab some Unders in the first few Orioles home games as sportsbooks watch and adjust. That’s not my thinking on Friday, however.
The New York Yankees are scorching hot at the plate. They’re sixth in wRC+ in the early going with 11 homers. New York is also fourth in barrels per plate appearance and after a slow start, has picked its walk rate back up and put it into the top tier of the league.
Dean Kremer is not a very good pitcher, on the other hand. Not only does he own a 5.34 ERA in six career starts against the Yankees, he simply doesn’t match up well. He pitches to contact and doesn’t induce enough ground balls, resulting in awful lines on a weekly basis. The Bombers are absolutely beastly in the exit velocity department and can be relied upon to make quality contact off of Kremer.
With that, I love the Over. The Orioles have been sneaky-good at the plate as well with a 130 wRC+, which ranks fourth in the game and Top-11 marks in hard-hit rate and barrels per plate appearance.
While the dimensions may be a bit different, I still think the ball will be flying at Camden on Friday afternoon.
My best bet: Over 9 (+100 at bet365)
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Yankees vs Orioles moneyline analysis
I’m siding with the Yankees here if I’m forced to side with one team. I really do not like Kremer in a spot like this where he’s going to be facing a team that's excellent at converting contact into runs. The right-hander is a strike-thrower, and this offense is full of strike-mashers.
Clarke Schmidt (expected) is coming off of a rough opening start against the Giants which saw him surrender three runs on five hits and a walk over 3 1/3 innings, and he allowed two homers in that outing.
Baltimore is mashing right now, but I really just think you need to side with the better pitcher in a situation like this. That’s Schmidt.
The righty also owned a 3.12 ERA in 57 2/3 innings last season with a promising 3.51 xERA. Again, while the offenses are going to be comparable here, I don’t think the pitching matchup is. Schmidt has at least had success at this level; Kremer has not.
Yankees vs Orioles Over/Under analysis
The Over has cashed in four out of six Orioles games, but just twice in the Yankees’ six games. Despite this, I’m pretty confident that we should see runs here.
The main reason the Yankees haven’t been cashing Overs is their pitching staff. They were able to put up six runs in last Sunday’s win over the Giants only to shut out San Francisco and bring the game Under the total. Out of the three offenses they’ve faced to this point, though, the Orioles have to be the most dangerous.
That’s crazy to think, but it’s the truth. Baltimore is walking over 10% of the time, has hit the same number of homers (11) as New York, and boasts a .224 Isolated Power. Couple this with some question marks in the Yankees bullpen such as the slow start of Michael King and I think we’ve got a nice high-scoring game here.
Yankees vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Friday, April 7, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 3:05 p.m. ET |
| TV: | MASN, YES |
Yankees vs Orioles betting preview
Starting pitchers
Clarke Schmidt (0-0, 8.10 ERA): The righty is now 27 years of age, and with that, has shed his prospect pedigree and essentially just become a Quadruple-A pitcher. Injuries to the Yankees forced Schmidt into the rotation one way or another, but he could stick around with some good starts. He allowed two homers to the Giants in his first start, but that’s not looking like such a bad line given their success at the plate since.
Dean Kremer (0-0, 15.00 ERA): Kremer’s first start also saw him allow two homers, but it came against a worse offense in the Red Sox. He struck out three over three frames but allowed five runs on six hits and a walk. Hitters had an expected batting average of .265 against the righty last year.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
The Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings between these two teams in Baltimore. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Orioles
