Having lost a series to an AL East foe for the first time since April 2023, the Baltimore Orioles are also in danger of losing the top spot to the New York Yankees on Sunday. New York sent the Orioles tumbling to their fifth straight loss, and with a series sweep, could supplant Baltimore at the top of the division in the O’s last game before the All-Star break.
The books aren’t exactly expecting a bounceback, listing Baltimore as a slight -118 favorite in the MLB odds. For our betting purposes, our free MLB picks focus on baseball’s premier long-ball hitter and a favorable matchup.
Yankees vs Orioles prediction
My best bet
Aaron Judge Over 0.5 home runs (+155 at DraftKings)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Aaron Judge has been mashing the Baltimore Orioles pitching in this series. He connected on his second home run in as many games on Saturday, a towering 431-foot drive over the center field wall at Camden Yards. That gives him 34 homers on the campaign. In the heralded history of New York Yankees greats, he's now hit the most long balls before the All-Star break, besting a mark of 33 that he shared with Roger Maris.
After a seven-game homerless drought, Judge has come alive against the Orioles, and now he gets righty Dean Kremer, who’s 4-5 on the year and coming off a shelling last outing against the Cubs. He lasted just four innings, giving up seven hits and five earned runs, including getting taken yard on two occasions, en route to a 9-2 loss.
To be fair, he's had success against the Yankees. In an April start, he tied a season-best by going seven innings, scattering four hits and two runs in a 4-2 win. He kept Judge off the stat sheet that day, as he went 0-for-3.
That was before Judge really took off, though, capping a month where he hit just .207 with six homers. Since then, he’s blasted 27, upped his average to .308, and leads the bigs in homers, RBI, and an impressive 1.114 OPS.
In 12 career at-bats against Kremer, Judge is hitting .333. Of those four hits, three of them have left the ballpark. It just feels like a fitting way for him to put a cap in this momentous series, with big fly No. 35.
Yankees vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)
Aaron Judge Over 0.5 home runs
Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases
Carlos Rodon Over 5.5 hits allowed
Juan Soto has been doing just fine alongside Judge’s work, as he went yard Saturday for his 23rd of the season. He now has hits in four straight games and he’s also grabbed 2+ total bases in each. In a small sample size, Soto has also done very well against Kremer, with two hits in four at-bats, including a home run and RBI. He should continue to mash Sunday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Orioles odds
Yankees vs Orioles live odds
Yankees vs Orioles opening odds
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-200) | Baltimore -1.5 (+165)
- Moneyline: New York +100 | Baltimore -120
- Over/Under: Over 9 | Under 9
Yankees vs Orioles spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Yankees won have three of their last four games.
- The Orioles are just 2-6 in their last eight games as moneyline favorites.
- The Under is 3-6-1 in the last 10 meetings.
- Baltimore has cashed the Under in four straight games.
Yankees vs Orioles trend
The Yankees have lost nine of their last 10 against AL East opponents following a win. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Orioles
Yankees vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Sunday, 7-14-2024 |
| First pitch: | 11:35 a.m. ET |
| TV: | Roku |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Carlos Rodon (9-6, 4.46 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Dean Kremer (4-4, 3.93 ERA) |
Yankees vs Orioles latest injuries
Yankees vs Orioles weather
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