It’s a clash of the AL East titans as the New York Yankees head to Camden Yards to take on the Baltimore Orioles in the first of a four-game series.
My Yankees vs. Orioles predictions expect the cream to rise with so much at stake, even at this early juncture.
Find out which specific bat steps up in my MLB picks for Monday, April 29.
Yankees vs Orioles prediction
My best bet
Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases (+130 at bet365)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
For as good as Grayson Rodriguez has looked on the mound for the Baltimore Orioles at times in his young career, he’s still just 24 years old and adjusting to the big leagues. Coming off a shelling against the Los Angeles Angels — he allowed seven runs on 11 hits in 4 1/3 innings — he’ll have his hands full against the Evil Empire.
The former first-round pick has allowed 31 hits, four of which were homers, in 28 1/3 innings across his five starts. Now he’s got to deal with AL MVP odds favorite Juan Soto.
The New York Yankees outfielder leads the team in hits (35), doubles (six), home runs (seven), and total bases (62). His slash line of .318/.434/.564 puts him first in every primary offensive category on the Yankees.
He’s truly been a Bronx Bomber and Rodriguez should be quivering in his cleats at the thought of having to pitch to him. The righty has three pitches he uses more than 15% of the time with his four-seamer (42.8%), changeup (24.3%), and curveball (15.5%). Those are all pitches Soto loves to see as he’s putting up video game numbers against all three offerings. Rodriguez predominantly goes to his four-seamer, but Soto’s hitting .324 with a .706 SLG against them — not to mention he has five homers and five doubles against fastballs overall. You can't blow Soto away with velocity.
However, he’s somehow been even better against changeups with a jaw-dropping .417 average and .750 SLG. And even if Rodriguez is looking for relief by going to his curve, Soto’s batting .364 against benders.
The only other two pitches he’s even thrown this season are his cutter (13.5%) and sinker (3.8%). Soto has a .583 SLG against cutters plus a .412 average and .588 SLG against sinkers. Pitch to Soto at your own risk.
Yankees vs Orioles same-game parlay (SGP)
Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases
Anthony Rizzo Over 0.5 total bases
Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 total bases
At the ripe age of 34, Anthony Rizzo has been arguably the Yankees' second-most consistent bat after Soto. He’s second on the team in total bases (50) with a more than respectable slash line of .277/.341/.446.
To keep up with Soto and Rizzo, the Orioles will need shortstop Gunnar Henderson to continue his ridiculous pace. The reigning AL Rookie of the Year has been on a heater with 32 hits, nine home runs, and three triples. He leads the team in total bases (68) and the AL in SLG (.613). Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt is going to have a tough time when Henderson is up to bat.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Orioles odds
Yankees vs Orioles live odds
Yankees vs Orioles opening odds
- Run line: New York +1.5 (-180) | Baltimore -1.5 (+150)
- Moneyline: New York +115 | Baltimore -135
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 (-120) | Under 8.5 (+100)
Yankees vs Orioles spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Orioles opened as a -135 to -141 moneyline favorite with most books now hovering around -130 ahead of first pitch.
- Baltimore is 17-10 on the season and sitting second in the AL East, but the Yankees are one game up on them in the division at 19-10.
- The Over/Under opened as low as 8.5 and has since moved up to between 9 and 9.5. The Under can be had at even-money at some books.
- New York hasn’t been a great Over team this season, going just 12-16-1, but Baltimore is the best in the MLB at 16-9-2.
Yankees vs Orioles trend
The New York Yankees have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 20 away games (+8.40 Units / 35% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Orioles
Yankees vs Orioles game info
| Location: | Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Baltimore, MD |
| Date: | Monday, 4-29-2024 |
| First pitch: | 6:35 p.m. ET |
| TV: | YES, MASN |
| Yankees starting pitcher: | Clarke Schmidt (2-0, 3.55 ERA) |
| Orioles starting pitcher: | Grayson Rodriguez (3-1, 4.45 ERA) |
Yankees vs Orioles latest injuries
Yankees vs Orioles weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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