The Tampa Bay Rays were able to get on the board in this series on Saturday, earning a 3-1 win over the New York Yankees, and now have a chance to finish with a four-game split. These teams are both sending some studs to the mound in this one, so it should be a fun one to watch.
Will Tampa Bay leave this series with the split? Keep reading our MLB betting picks and predictions for Yankees vs. Rays to find out.
Yankees vs Rays odds
This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.
The total in this game opened at 6.5 and remains that number across the board, but there is a little juice on bettors who want to take the Over.
As for the side, the Rays opened at -119 and they’re now all the way up at -140. The best price available on Tampa Bay at the time of writing is -133.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until first pitch and be sure to check out the full MLB odds before placing your bets.
Yankees vs Rays predictions
Picks made on 5/29/2022 at 3:30 a.m. ET.
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Yankees vs Rays game info
• Location: Tropicana Field, St. Petersburg, FL
• Date: Sunday, May 29, 2022
• First pitch: 1:40 p.m. ET
• TV: YES, Bally Sports Sun
Yankees vs Rays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Luis Severino (3-0, 3.02 ERA): Severino has looked great since the start of this season, which is a great sign after the righty had to undergo Tommy John surgery two years ago. Severino was once viewed as the future ace of the Yankees, but they’re fine with him settling in as a No. 2 starter behind Gerrit Cole. The righty is coming off of his best start of the year, as he struck out five in seven shutout innings against the Chicago White Sox.
Shane McClanahan (4-2, 2.06 ERA): McClanahan, the Rays' ace, is really in a groove entering this start. Over his last three outings, McClanahan has allowed only one earned run. He also averaged 9.0 strikeouts per game over those three starts, and he just has some of the most absurd stuff in the league. McClanahan is always a threat to approach double digits in strikeouts.
Weather
Be sure to monitor the gametime conditions with our MLB weather info.
Key injuries
Yankees: Aroldis Chapman P (Out), Aaron Hicks OF (Questionable), Josh Donaldson 3B (Out), Joey Gallo OF (Out), Giancarlo Stanton OF (Out), Chad Green P (Out), Luis Gil P (Out), Domingo German P (Out), Jonathan Loaisiga P (Out).
Rays: Brandon Lowe 2B (Out), Pete Fairbanks P (Out), Chris Mazza P (Out), Shane Baz P (Out), Luis Patino P (Out), Nick Anderson P (Out), Tyler Glasnow P (Out).
Find our latest MLB injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Rays are 82-30 in their last 112 home games against right-handed starters. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Rays
Yankees vs Rays picks and predictions
Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.
Moneyline analysis
Tampa Bay’s offense isn’t quite what it was a year ago, as the Rays finished the season second in runs scored in 2021 and are just 15th in MLB in 2022. The team is, however, dangerous against right-handed pitching, as the Rays are seventh in the league in isolated power, 12th in slugging percentage, and 12th in weighted runs created plus against them.
The chief culprit against right-handers has been outfielder Manuel Margot, who extended his hitting streak to 15 games on Saturday. He's batting .329 with a 165 wRC+ against righties and hasn't missed a beat in his four games since returning from injury. Yandy Diaz, Brett Phillips, and Ji-Man Choi all have a wRC+ north of 130 vs. right-handed pitching as well.
With all that said, Tampa Bay has to be feeling better about its chances of getting a run or two across home plate than New York does about getting to McClanahan.
For as good as Severino has been this season, there’s just no way to say he’s a better pitcher than McClanahan. The lefty seems to have a legitimate chance to win the AL Cy Young Award, as he only has the fifth-shortest odds to do so. McClanahan should have no trouble racking up strikeouts against a Yankees team that will often be swinging big in order to go yard. And while the Yankees hitters are 17th in overall strikeout percentage, that balloons when they face southpaws, as only eight teams go down on strikes more frequently than New York.
The advantage on the mound is too hard to overlook in a game in which Tampa Bay is also playing at the Trop. The team is 62-29 in its last 91 home games, so it does have a true home-field advantage.
Additionally, the Rays are 7-0 in the last seven games they’ve played with a total of 6.5 or lower.
Prediction: Rays moneyline (-133 at WynnBET)
Over/Under analysis
When a total is this low, it’s always going to be tempting to just jump on the Over and hope for the best, but these are two of the best pitchers in the American League right now, so runs may be at a premium.
Tampa Bay is solid against righties, but the team isn’t in a position to completely light up Severino. The righty has looked far too good for that, particularly with his command of the strike zone. Severino hasn't issued more than two walks in a single start this year. It really would be surprising if the winner of this game scores more than four runs. And considering McClanahan has allowed two or fewer earned runs in seven of his nine starts, he’s a guy who Under bettors can really trust.
The Under is 8-2-1 in the last 11 games in which McClanahan has pitched, and a lot of that has to do with his stellar work. The Under is also 13-5-2 in the last 20 games in which the Yankees have been underdogs. And it’s 10-3-2 in the last 15 games that the Rays have played against AL East opponents.
Prediction: Under 6.5 (+100 at WynnBet)
Best bet
The Yankees have been really tough on lefties all season, and they’re just one of the best offensive teams in baseball. However, New York does have plenty of players who strike out rather often, and that’s truer against southpaws. While the Yankees only have a 21.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this year, that number goes up to 23.7% against southpaws.
McClanahan also happens to have some of the best swing-and-miss stuff in baseball, and he’ll be looking forward to the challenge of facing the Yankees. The lefty has struck out at least eight batters in five of his nine starts this season. He’s also averaging more strikeouts per nine innings when pitching at home, so this is also his preferred ballpark.
At plus-money, it’s hard to not back the electric McClanahan against a lineup that is prone to striking out against lefties and is missing a number of impact bats like Giancarlo Stanton, Josh Donaldson, and possibly Aaron Hicks.
Pick: Shane McClanahan Over 7.5 strikeouts (+114 at FanDuel)
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