On Sunday afternoon, there's a three-game AL East series set to conclude with the Tampa Bay Rays hosting the New York Yankees.
After splitting the first two games of this series, each club will look to take care of business in the rubber match.
Will the first-place Rays defend their home diamond, or can the last-place Yankees secure back-to-back wins? Find out in our free MLB betting picks for Yankees vs. Rays below.
Yankees vs Rays odds
Yankees vs Rays predictions
Taking the mound for the New York Yankees in this contest is right-hander Gerrit Cole. New York's ace has put together a dominating start to the campaign, and we're going to back him in the strikeout department today.
Through seven starts this season, Cole is 5-0 with a commanding 1.35 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. The right-hander has collected at least eight strikeouts in five of those seven outings, and there is little reason to believe that trend will break in this contest.
One of the best strikeout artists in MLB, Cole ranks in the 79th percentile or higher in both K% and chase rate. In fact, he's finished with a K% north of 32% in each of his past five seasons, consistently ranking in the 90th percentile or higher over that stretch.
The reason that Cole’s strikeout prop can be found as low as 6.5 is that the Tampa Bay Rays are generally good at avoiding punchouts. However, they're not necessarily great at it either, failing to crack the Top 10 in the league in K% when facing right-handed pitching.
Furthermore, Tampa could be due for regression in the strikeout department. Looking at 2022, a much larger sample size, the Rays finished 24th in the league in K% against right-handers.
This regression could come against Cole, a guy who's dominated Tampa in the past. Through 185 career plate appearances against the right-hander, this current Rays roster possesses a fade-worthy 29.7 K% and 31.3 Whiff%.
Looking at Tampa’s projected starting lineup for Sunday, three of the nine hitters possess a K% north of 28% this season. Additionally, New York has no issues leaving Cole in when he's dealing, which should further help us get Over this number.
My best bet: Gerrit Cole Over 6.5 strikeouts (-152)
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Best MLB bonuses
Looking to bet on some baseball action? Here are two of the best bonuses* available:
A) New users at FanDuel can bet $5 and get $150 in bonus bets! Sign Up Now
B) Get a profit boost up to 100% on one MLB same-game parlay at DraftKings! Opt-in Now
*Eligible USA locations only. Also, check out our full list of best sportsbook promotions for 2023.
21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER
Yankees vs Rays moneyline analysis
I would lean toward the Yankees’ moneyline in this contest but am not confident enough to pull the trigger. We should fully trust Cole to take care of business, despite facing the excellent Rays lineup.
However, there are too many question marks regarding New York’s lineup and Tampa’s pitching. One of the worst lineups in baseball this season, the Yankees currently rank 23rd or lower in runs scored per game, hits per game, BA, and OPS.
Meanwhile, the Rays possess one of the best pitching groups in baseball. Entering this contest, Tampa ranks first in the league in ERA, WHIP, and home runs allowed.
Yankees vs Rays Over/Under analysis
I would also lean towards the Under in this contest but do not feel confident one way or the other. Cole is one of the best pitchers on the planet, which should nullify the Rays’ deep lineup.
However, Tampa is going with a bullpen game on Sunday, which complicates things. Slated to open the game is Javy Guerra, who possesses a troubling 8.00 ERA and 2.33 WHIP through nine appearances on the mound this season.
With that said, he just needs to survive one inning before left-hander Josh Fleming is slated to come in. A more talented pitcher, Fleming possesses a 3.18 ERA and 1.32 WHIP through six appearances this year.
Yankees vs Rays game info
| Location: | Tropicana Field, Tampa, FL |
| Date: | Sunday, May 7, 2023 |
| First pitch: | 1:40 p.m. ET |
| TV: | YES, Bally Sports Sun |
Yankees vs Rays betting preview
Starting pitchers
Gerrit Cole (5-0, 1.35 ERA): Putting together a dominant start to 2023, Cole ranks second in the AL in ERA and fourth in strikeouts. He looks to keep things going against Tampa, a team he typically dominates. Over his past four starts against the Rays, Cole boasts a spectacular 1.07 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. He collected at least seven strikeouts in three of those four outings.
Josh Fleming (0-0, 3.18 ERA): Handling the bulk role for Tampa in this scheduled bullpen game, Fleming will look to keep his stretch of strong pitching going against the Yankees. After getting shelled in his first outing against the Nationals this season, Fleming has turned things around. Over his five appearances on the mound since then, he boasts a 1.37 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.
Latest injuries
Trend to know
Gerrit Cole has recorded at least eight strikeouts in five of his seven starts this season. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Rays
