The 2025 Daytona 500 had a frantic finish, but it still couldn't top what was almost a triple dead heat at Atlanta Motor Speedway in last year's Ambetter Health 400. The NASCAR Cup Series drivers will brace themselves for another eventful superspeedway track this week, where the odds are once again spread out considerably.
Don't miss our free betting picks to help navigate you through the chaos.
Odds to win 2025 Ambetter Health 400
| Driver |  |
|---|---|
| Ryan Blaney | +800 |
| Joey Logano | +900 |
| Kyle Busch | +1100 |
| Austin Cindric | +1100 |
| Chase Elliott | +1300 |
| William Byron | +1300 |
| Denny Hamlin | +1500 |
| Brad Keselowski | +1500 |
| Daniel Suarez | +1700 |
| Kyle Larson | +1800 |
| Christopher Bell | +1800 |
| Chris Buescher | +2000 |
| Bubba Wallace | +2000 |
| Ross Chastain | +2200 |
| Chase Briscoe | +2200 |
| Tyler Reddick | +2500 |
| Alex Bowman | +2500 |
| Ty Gibbs | +3000 |
| Todd Gilliland | +4000 |
| Ryan Preece | +4000 |
Odds as of 2-22.
Ambetter Health 400 field
A field of 39 will assemble at Atlanta Motor Speedway this Sunday afternoon, with Ryan Blaney holding as a tepid betting favorite over Penske teammate Joey Logano, a two-time winner at the new Atlanta. Blaney already has a win here following the 2021 redesign and was a nose away from a second here last winter as he was part of the near-triple dead heat with Kyle Busch and eventual race winner Daniel Suarez.
Daytona 500 winner William Byron, who has also won here twice since 2021, is just outside the Top 5 in the pre-qualifying wagering.
Ambetter Health 400 expert picks and predictions
Odds listed below courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of 2-22.
Ambetter Health 400 pre-qualifying favorites
Ryan Blaney (+800)
In his last nine Atlanta starts, Ryan Blaney has eight Top-10 finishes, including a runner-up in a photo finish last February and a third-place finish last fall. He’s led at least a lap in nine of the last 10 Atlanta races. He led 10 times for 23 laps in a seventh-place Daytona 500 finish.
Kyle Busch (+1100)
Kyle Busch has scored nine Top-10 finishes in his last 11 Atlanta tries. That includes finishes of 10th and fifth in his first season at Richard Childress Racing in 2023 and being part of that three-wide photo finish last spring while running seventh in the fall.
Austin Cindric (+1100)
Fords were quick the last two years and Austin Cindric and has finished third, 11th, 12th, fourth, and 10th, respectively, in his last five Atlanta tries. He qualified on the front row for the Daytona 500, won a Duel, and led 13 times for 59 laps in the big race. He was taken out while battling for the win on the final lap.
Ambetter Health 400 sleepers
Brad Keselowski (+1500)
Brad Keselowski was runner-up after leading 47 laps in the 2023 spring race and brought his No. 6 Ford home sixth in the rain-shortened summer race after leading 19 more laps. With two runner-up finishes on drafting tracks last season, I’m overlooking his 33rd and 19th-place finishes at Atlanta last year.
Ross Chastain (+2200)
Ross Chastain was 13th and 35th here in 2023 and 13th last fall. However, runner-up finishes in both races in 2022 and a seventh last spring gives me reason for optimism.
Alex Bowman (+2500)
Alex Bowman had three Top-5 finishes in superspeedway starts last season, including a fifth-place finish at Atlanta last fall. He finished sixth at Daytona last weekend.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (+4500)
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. had three Top-6 finishes on drafting tracks last season, including a sixth-place result in last year’s spring race. He finished 18th in the Daytona 500 but was running in the Top 5 when he was taken out in a late-race crash.
Ambetter Health 400 fades
Joey Logano (+900)
Tough one here. On one hand, Joey Logano won the pole, led 140 laps, and took home the win in the 2023 Atlanta spring race. He also led nine laps in his 2024 Atlanta fall race. On the other, those wins are also his only Top 5 finishes in his last 13 Atlanta starts, including finishes of ninth, 26th, 17th, and 28th on this drafting package.
His other 2024 superspeedway results were 32nd, 28th, 19th, 31st, and 33rd. He led 43 laps in the Daytona 500 but crashed and finished 35th.
William Byron (+1300)
He’s won two of the last six Atlanta races. However, three of William Byron's last seven Atlanta finishes are also 20th or worse, and he was 17th last spring and ninth in the fall.
Trends aren’t on his side either. The last time someone started the year off 2-for-2 was Matt Kenseth in 2009.
Chase Elliott (+1300)
Chase Elliott was 13th in his lone Atlanta start in 2023, but he won the July 2022 race to go along with being sixth in the spring event that season. However, Elliott finished 14th, 15th, 15th, 36th, eighth, and 29th, respectively, on superspeedways last season. He didn’t lead a lap and finished 15th in Sunday’s Daytona 500.
Denny Hamlin (+1500)
Toyota has struggled in Atlanta and Denny Hamlin was only 29th and 25th, respectively, in his pair of Atlanta starts in 2022, sixth and 14th in 2023, and 14th and 24th last year.
Ambetter Health 400 prop pick: Daniel Suarez vs. Kyle Larson
Daniel Suarez is an intriguing bet to win since he won the spring race last year and was the runner-up in the fall. The odds of him doubling his career win total at one track are slim. The safe play is a Top-5 finish and a head-to-head win over Kyle Larson.
Suarez has five Top-6 finishes in his last six Atlanta starts. Meanwhile, since this race shifted to a speedway type of racing package, it's negated Larson’s advantage. Larson has never won a superspeedway race and has just two Top-5 finishes in 48 starts on them. He’s finished 30th, 13th, 31st, 36th, 32nd, and 37th, respectively, at Atlanta with this package and 20th last Sunday.
Pick: Daniel Suarez (-120 at DraftKings)
Popular motor sports futures odds
Atlanta track analysis
Atlanta Motor Speedway remains the same as it was the last couple of years — a drafting track that’s most comparable to Daytona International Speedway and Talladega Superspeedway. The only difference between Atlanta and those tracks is that it’s one mile shorter in length, meaning that a lot can happen in a hurry.
The spring race differs also from the summer/fall race from the standpoint of ambient temperatures. A cool February day means less track temp, and less track temp means more grip for the tires.
Ambetter Health 400 trends
- Chevrolet has won four of the six drafting-style races at Atlanta. Ford's wins with Joey Logano in the spring of 2023 and fall of 2024 are the outliers. Chevrolet is 12-for-18 in this generation of car on superspeedways in general.
- Toyota hasn’t won at Atlanta Motor Speedway since 2014. The manufacturer has only reached victory lane twice in the Peachtree State. Toyota is also 1-for-19 on superspeedways with this car, with the win coming on a last-lap pass last spring in Talladega.
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Ambetter Health 400 info
| Location: | Atlanta Motor Speedway, Hampton, GA |
| Date: | Sunday, 2-23-2025 |
| Start time: | 3:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
Previous Ambetter Health 400 winners
Atlanta underwent a massive configuration change prior to the 2022 season and now offers the "pack style" racing we've come to know at Daytona and Talladega. Toyota has been held winless in the six races since the track was reconfigured, while Chevrolet has taken four checkered flags. William Byron has two of those wins for Chevy, while Joey Logano has both wins for Ford.
| Year | Winner |
| 2024 (Race 2) | Joey Logano |
| 2024 (Race 1) | Daniel Suarez |
| 2023 (Race 2) | William Byron |
| 2023 (Race 1) | Joey Logano |
| 2022 (Race 2) | Chase Elliott |
| 2022 (Race 1) | William Byron |
How to make Ambetter Health 400 picks
NASCAR betting is a nuanced process that can take any number of factors into account, and spans several different types of bets. Fortunately, our How to Bet NASCAR guide walks you through the basics, including how to read odds, different markets that are available, and what to consider when making your bets.
