The NASCAR playoffs are about to cut another four drivers from the championship chase, and this weekend's Bass Pro Shops Night Race odds help paint the picture of who will survive and advance.
We're shifting to Saturday night for this Bristol race, and the NASCAR Cup Series odds are predicting a return to order after longshots and road-course specialists topped last weekend's results at Watkins Glen.
Who's punching their ticket to the next round? Check out the best Bass Pro Shops Night Race betting picks for September 21 below.
Odds to win 2024 Bass Pro Shops Night Race
| Driver |  |
 |
|---|---|---|
| Denny Hamlin | +400 | +350 |
| Kyle Larson | +500 | +600 |
| Christopher Bell | +550 | +600 |
| Ty Gibbs | +850 | +700 |
| Brad Keselowski | +1,100 | +1,000 |
| Chris Buescher | +1,200 | +1,600 |
| William Byron | +1,500 | +1,800 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1,500 | +1,800 |
| Joey Logano | +1,500 | +1,800 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +1,600 | +1,600 |
| Kyle Busch | +1,700 | +2,200 |
| Tyler Reddick | +1,800 | +1,800 |
| Chase Elliott | +1,800 | +1,800 |
| Josh Berry | +2,500 | +3,000 |
| Chase Briscoe | +3,500 | +3,000 |
| Ross Chastain | +4,000 | +3,000 |
| Alex Bowman | +4,500 | +4,000 |
| Bubba Wallace | +5,500 | +5,000 |
| Michael McDowell | +9,000 | +8,000 |
| John H Nemechek | +9,000 | +12,500 |
Odds as of 9-18.
Bass Pro Shops Night Race field
Denny Hamlin's taken the checkered flag at each of the last two Bristol stops, and he finds himself atop the odds board across the industry. Hamlin's also on the wrong side of the playoff bubble, currently 13th heading into the last race before the Round of 12. He knows a quality finish is paramount in the quest for that elusive Cup Series championship.
Kyle Larson knows a thing or two about winning the Cup Series, as he did in 2021, when he also won this race (and just about everything else). Larson isn't exactly on a hot streak right now (just one Top-10 finish in his last five races), but it's usually only a matter of time with this guy; he'll find his rhythm.
Current points leader Christopher Bell also finds himself among the favorites. He won here last year (albeit on a dirt track), also taking third in the "normal" fall race. One of NASCAR's rising stars is putting himself in contention consistently, with Top-4 finishes in three of the last four races overall.
Probably the most glaring parts of this odds board are the glut of drivers between the +1,000 and +2,000 range, comprising a quarter of the field, and the sudden plummet from around +5,000 to effectively twice that price. It's a jarring contrast between a plateau and steep drop in odds after the Top 16, indicative of a playoff driver taking this race.
Bass Pro Shops Night Race expert picks and predictions
Odds listed below courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of 9-18.
Bass Pro Shops Night Race pre-qualifying favorites
Denny Hamlin (+400)
He beat your favorite driver last year, leading 142 laps from a front row starting position. He won again this spring and boasts four consecutive Top-10 finishes on concrete here and seven Top 10s in his last nine tries at Bristol, which includes three wins. He also won the spring Richmond and Dover races this season, and came home runner-up in the summer Richmond race, too.
Kyle Larson (+500)
Larson has 248 laps led and scored four Top-5 finishes (first, fifth, second, fifth) over the last six Bristol races. Dating further back, Larson has nine Top-10 finishes in his last 10 Bristol tries including four Top-2 finishes. On short tracks this season, Larson has finished 14th, fifth, third, second, second, fourth, and seventh, respectively.
Christopher Bell (+550)
With the Next Gen, Bell has been en fuego. He won the Dirt Race a year ago, and on concrete, he’s qualified eighth, first and 12th, finished fourth, third and 10th, and has led 143 laps, 187 laps and 29 laps, respectively. He’s also won three of the six stages and finished second, eighth and fifth in the others. He just needs a concrete win. That could come on Saturday night. He finished sixth in both Richmond races.
Bass Pro Shops Night Race sleepers
Brad Keselowski (+1,100)
Keselowski has six Top-10 finishes in his last eight Bristol starts, including a win in May 2020 and third this spring. He led 109 laps in the fall race for 2022 before tire troubles relegated him to a 13th-place result. Still, Keselowski has led 515 laps in his last 10 Bristol tries.
Chris Buescher (+1,200)
He won this race in 2022 and fourth last year. This spring, Buescher finished seventh for his fifth Top-8 Bristol concrete finish in his last six tries.
Chase Elliott (+1,800)
He’s due. Elliott won the All-Star race there July 2020 and when factoring that, Elliott has six Top-8 finishes in his last eight starts, including a runner-up in 2022. He led 129 laps in a 25th-place finish in 2021, too.
Michael McDowell (+9,000)
He’s due. Elliott won the All-Star race there July 2020 and when factoring that, Elliott has six Top-8 finishes in his last eight starts, including a runner-up in 2022. He led 129 laps in a 25th-place finish in 2021, too.
Bass Pro Shops Night Race fades
Ryan Blaney (+1,500)
He finished fourth in the 2021 night race, but was 30th and 22nd the last two years, and 16th this spring. He also finished fifth at Phoenix, seventh at Dover, and 19th and 11th, respectively, at Richmond this season.
William Byron (+1,500)
He’s 0-for-12 at Bristol, which is why I don’t trust picking him as an outright winner. Byron had a best finish of eighth, as his lone Top-10 finish in his first eight tries on the concrete oval, but he’s since finished third, third, ninth, and 35th, respectively. On short tracks this season, Byron has finished 18th, seventh, first, 33rd, second, 26th and 13th, respectively.
Joey Logano (+1,500)
Not a good track for Logano anymore. He’s finished outside the Top 10 in seven of the last eight tries there, including finishes of 27th, 34th and 22nd with the Next Gen, with two of the three ending prematurely. He’s had two Top-10 finishes in his last 12 tries.
Martin Truex Jr. (+1,600)
Yes, he led 54 laps in a runner-up finish this spring. But that was just his third Top-10 finish in his last 21 Bristol starts. He’s been 19th or worse in 15 of the last 19 there. So, while he was seventh at Phoenix, third at Dover, and fourth and 37th, respectively at Richmond, I’d fade.
Kyle Busch (+1,700)
At one point, Busch was the king of Bristol. He came into the 2021 season with seven Top-4 finishes in an eight race span, including three wins and a pair of runner-ups. Since? 21st, 34th. 20th, and 25th, respectively, with five laps led.
Tyler Reddick (+1,800)
Not a great track for him. He was 30th this spring and fourth, 12th, 25th, and 15th in the Night Race, respectively
Bass Pro Shops Night Race prop pick
Ty Gibbs Top-3 finish
Steep odds (+800) for an outright win on a driver who has never won a Cup race. But Gibbs finished ninth in the spring race, third at Phoenix in March, and 10th at Dover in May. Play it safe here.
Pick: Ty Gibbs Top-3 finish (+250 ar DraftKings)
Popular motor sports futures odds
Bristol Motor Speedway track analysis
For the first time since 2020, Bristol Motor Speedway plays hosts to a pair of races on concrete. Beginning in 2021 and lasting through 2023, the spring race was held on dirt. This past spring, with a return to concrete and 54 lead changes, a barnburner occurred.
How much correlates over to the return trip?
NASCAR tested this summer to see if the tire wear would be similar, where drivers were tip-toeing around the high-banked .533-mile concrete oval in the spring. By the outlook, sounds like we may see a similar race.
Bristol’s a banked concrete short track, most similar to Dover, although this track is half the size. Multiple grooves settle in as the race goes on. Lapped traffic plays a key role in determining the outcome of this track.
Bass Pro Shops Night Race trends
- Starting spot is key. Six of the last seven races on the concrete oval came from a Top-5 starting spot. Chris Buescher started 20th in 2022, but Denny Hamlin came from second last year and third this spring.
- Chevy has just three wins in the last 19 races at Bristol.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Previous Bass Pro Shops Night Race winners
Hamlin goes for a three-peat, having won last year's Night Race, along with this season's spring trip to Bristol.
| Year | Winner |
| 2023 | Denny Hamlin |
| 2022 | Chris Buescher |
| 2021 | Kyle Larson |
| 2020 | Kevin Harvick |
| 2019 | Denny Hamlin |
| 2018 | Kurt Busch |
| 2017 | Kyle Busch |
| 2016 | Kevin Harvick |
| 2015 | Joey Logano |
| 2014 | Joey Logano |
How to make Bass Pro Shops Night Race picks
NASCAR betting is a nuanced process that can take any number of factors into account, and spans several different types of bets. Fortunately, our How to Bet NASCAR guide walks you through the basics, including how to read odds, different markets that are available, and what to consider when making your bets.
