Brickyard 400: Indy Picks, Betting Odds & Race Preview

Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin continue to wage war atop NASCAR odds markets.

While Larson has inched ahead as the favorite for NASCAR Cup Series odds, it's Hamlin who owns the slight edge on this weekend's Brickyard 400 odds at Indianapolis Motor Speedway — one of auto racing's most hallowed grounds. 

They're joined at the top of the pack by pole-sitter Tyler Reddick. Can one of the favorites take down another checkered flag, or will an underdog surprise the field today?

Check out this week's Brickyard 400 betting picks for Sunday, July 21.

Odds to win 2024 Brickyard 400

Driver
Tyler Reddick	+400
Denny Hamlin	+500
Kyle Larson	+550
Chase Elliott	+800
William Byron	+800
Ryan Blaney	+1,400
Brad Keselowski	+2,200
Christopher Bell	+2,200
Ty Gibbs	+2,200
Martin Truex Jr.	+2,200
Joey Logano	+2,500
Alex Bowman	+2,500
Michael McDowell	+3,000
Kyle Busch	+3,000
Bubba Wallace	+5,000
Ross Chastain	+5,000
Chris Buescher	+5,000
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.	+7,500
Josh Berry	+10,000
Austin Cindric	+10,000

Odds as of 7-21-2024.

Brickyard 400 field

This race will be run on Indy's oval track for the first time since 2020, as the road course has played host to the Verizon 200 for the past three years.

Thus, instead of having road course specialists Chase Elliott and Tyler Reddick topping the Brickyard 400 field, we find Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson, arguably the best drivers on standard oval courses.

Both have three victories on the NASCAR season, sit 1-2 in the points standings, and despite neither having won on Indy's Brickyard tracks in a relatively small sample (one race annually, none in any of the past three seasons), they've seen success on similar tracks, and are generally given the benefit of the doubt in situations like this, where a new track might mitigate some of the handicapping data. 

Sitting close behind them is Ryan Blaney, who won last week's race at Pocono for his second win in just over a month. The defending Cup Series champ has been known to be a streaky performer and could be catching lightning in a bottle over the regular-season home stretch.

Overall, the Brickyard 400 odds board is one of the more linear distributions we've seen this season, with a steady climb in prices throughout the field. 

Brickyard 400 expert picks and predictions

Odds listed below courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Brickyard 400 pre-qualifying favorites

Denny Hamlin (+400)
Indy is most similar to Pocono, so expect Hamlin to shine again this weekend. Coming off of a runner-up finish last week at Pocono and totaling seven wins on the 2.5-mile Tricky Triangle, Hamlin could score his first Brickyard 400 win in his 16th try Sunday.

Hamlin has five Top-5 finishes at Indy in his last seven tries. He crashed from the lead late in the 2020 Brickyard 400 after leading 19 laps.

Kyle Larson (+600)
He’s always strong at Pocono and has three Top-10 finishes in six Brickyard 400 tries. The 2024 Indianapolis 500 Rookie of the Year knows how to get around this track. 

Brad Keselowski (+750)
A great drafter with seven combined points-paying wins at Daytona and Talladega, a past Brickyard 400 winner in 2018 comes to this race with three Top-4 finishes in his last four tries. 

Brickyard 400 sleepers

Christopher Bell (+1,100)
Bell also has three Top-6 finishes in seven Pocono tries and was 12th at Indianapolis as a rookie in 2020. 

Tyler Reddick (+1,100)
He was 11th, ninth, second, second, and sixth, respectively, in his last five Pocono starts and finished eighth in the 2020 Brickyard 400. 

Joey Logano (+1,400)
Another great drafter and an underrated driver at Indy with eight Top-10 finishes in 12 tries, including a runner-up finish in 2019. 

Michael McDowell (+10,000)
He won the last race here on the road course, but McDowell can pull the odd two-race sweep with a win on the oval, too. He is a great qualifier with this drafting package, plus he finished seventh in his last Brickyard 400 start and needs a victory.

Brickyard 400 fades

Ryan Blaney (+750)
While he just won Pocono, four of his seven prior Pocono finishes had been 12th or worse, including 33rd in 2022 and 30th in 2023. At Indy, Blaney is 0-for-6 on Top-5 finishes.

Chase Elliott (+900)
Prior to the 2022 Pocono win that Elliott led no laps in, he had no finishes better than fourth, and four of his last five had seen him finish 12th or worse. At Indy, Elliott has no Top-5 finishes in six Brickyard 400 starts. Drafting tracks aren’t his strong suit either.

Martin Truex Jr. (+1,400)
He’s led only 11 Brickyard 400 laps and has one Top-5 finish in 16 starts. His last four finishes are 33rd, 40th, 27th, and 38th, respectively. With drafting packages not being a strong suit, I’d fade Truex. 

Kyle Busch (+3,000)
Busch is great at Pocono, won last year at Talladega, and is the only multi-time Brickyard 400 winner in the field. He had a stretch of four Top-2 finishes in a six-race span between 2012-2016. However, Busch has finished 34th, eighth, 37th, and sixth, respectively, since and crashed during the test last month.

Brickyard 400 prop pick

Bubba Wallace Top-3 finish

Strong at Pocono, as he finished 11th last year, eighth the previous year, and fifth the year prior to that. At Indy, Wallace finished third in 2019 and ninth in 2020. Worth a flier this weekend for this prop.

Pick: Bubba Wallace Top 3- finish (+800 at DraftKings)

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Indianapolis Motor Speedway track analysis

Treat this like an inaugural race. It's the first visit back to the 2.5-mile oval since 2020 with a lot of changes in the meantime.

This will feature a similar package to Pocono Raceway, but Indianapolis will incorporate some effects of the drafting package that we see at the superspeedways. That's why this race will be a hybrid Pocono vs. Daytona. Not necessarily a pack race like Daytona, but drafting will be a primary factor and how much a driver can manipulate the air. 

The best opportunities for passing are at the end of the two long straightaways, so I expect this weekend to mimic Pocono as it always does. 

Short pitting sometimes gains you track position later, but depending on cautions, it could bite you, too, depending on tire life. Some drivers will elect to pit before the end of stages and give up stage points to restart up front at the next stage. Definitely a track position circuit, still. 

Brickyard 400 trends

• Ford won the last three races on the 2.5-mile oval but those are the only Ford wins at Indianapolis since 2000. Ford has also been fast on superspeedway tracks so there’s a chance they could be strong this weekend.

How to make Brickyard 400 picks

NASCAR betting is a nuanced process that can take any number of factors into account, and spans several different types of bets. Fortunately, our How to Bet NASCAR guide walks you through the basics, including how to read odds, different markets that are available, and what to consider when making your bets. 

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