The NASCAR Cup Series came back with a bang at Richmond last week as Austin Dillon literally pushed his way into the playoffs. Michigan International Speedway is a far different animal though, and that's where the drivers are off to for this Sunday's FireKeepers Casino 400.
We have the latest odds and betting picks you can't afford to miss for this week's NASCAR event.
Odds to win 2024 FireKeepers Casino 400
| Name |  |
|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +550 |
| Denny Hamlin | +600 |
| Ryan Blaney | +750 |
| Tyler Reddick | +850 |
| Christopher Bell | +900 |
| Brad Keselowski | +900 |
| Joey Logano | +1,000 |
| William Byron | +1,200 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +1,200 |
| Chase Elliott | +1,200 |
Odds as of 8-17-2024.
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FireKeepers Casino 400 field
Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin, as usual, are toward the top of the board at the betting sites we're tracking ahead of Sunday's NASCAR Cup Series race. But Ryan Blaney being as high as third-choice at +850 or shorter is not always the case like it is this week.
Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano are also commanding more attention than usual ahead of the FireKeepers Casino 400, as both are in the +1,000 range, and the common thread shared by this pair plus Blaney is their manufacturer — Ford — which has won six straight editions of this event.
No fewer than four and as many as six drivers are being listed at single-digits in the early wagering, and recent results bear out that a major upset is unlikely. Even last year's victory by Chris Buescher didn't come from left field as he had also won the week before. Respected veterans like Kevin Harvick, Matt Kenseth, and Jeff Gordon all have wins at the Michigan summer race over the last 10 years.
FireKeepers Casino 400 expert picks and predictions
Odds listed below courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of 8-17-2024.
FireKeepers Casino 400 pre-qualifying favorites
Kyle Larson (+550)
A three-time Michigan winner, Larson has finished third, third, seventh, and fifth in his last four starts in the Irish Hills. He led 70 laps in a third-place finish in 2021.
Ryan Blaney (+750)
Blaney has seven Top-10 finishes in his last nine Michigan starts, including a 2021 victory. He finished fifth and ninth, respectively, in this Next Gen car.
Brad Keselowski (+900)
Keselowski is 0-for-26 as a driver at Michigan but led 15 laps in a fourth-place finish last year. He’s finished runner-up three times and has three Top-10 finishes in his last five tries.
FireKeepers Casino 400 sleepers
Joey Logano (+1,000)
Logano has six Top-10 finishes in his last nine Michigan tries including a win in 2019, a fifth in 2020, and a fourth in 2022. Logano fits the Ford billing for a winner.
Martin Truex Jr. (+1,200)
This is Truex’s 34th and final Michigan start. He’s winless in the other 33. However, Truex has four runner-up finishes, including last year after leading 47 laps, to go along with six third-place finishes. Among his seven consecutive Top-10 finishes, Truex has five in the Top 4.
Ty Gibbs (+1,800)
Gibbs was 10th as a rookie in 2022 and 11th last year. He’s led laps in both races.
Bubba Wallace (+2,000)
Wallace was runner-up in 2022 after leading 22 laps. He led 21 laps in last year’s 18th place finish after coming home second and fourth, respectively, in the pair of stages.
FireKeepers Casino 400 fades
Christopher Bell (+900)
Not a good start at Michigan for Bell. He’s been 13th, 17th, 13th, 26th, and 13th, respectively.
William Byron (+1,200)
Byron was runner-up in 2021 but 12th and 35th after. In nine starts, he has two Top-10 finishes and one Top-5.
Chase Elliott (+1,200)
Elliott is a great fantasy play with 10 Top-10 finishes in 13 Michigan starts, but after three straight runner-ups to start his Cup career at Michigan, he’s not had a Top-5 since. He was 11th in 2022 but 36th last year.
FireKeepers Casino 400 prop pick: Denny Hamlin Top-3 Finish
Toyota hasn’t won at Michigan since 2015, and the victory is its lone MIS win in the last 21 tries. That’s why I trust Toyotas more on Top-3 or Top-5 finishes than an outright win on Sunday.
Among the favorites, the safe play for a top-three finish is Hamlin. That’s because he has seven Top-8 finishes in his last eight Michigan tries, including finishes of second, sixth, second, fifth, third, and third, respectively, in the last six races there.
Pick: Denny Hamlin Top-3 finish (+180 on bet365)
Popular motor sports futures odds
Michigan International Speedway track analysis
Not much has changed at Michigan between last year and this one, including the car and racing package that they’ll show up with, which is why my eyes are peeled to Ford this weekend. This could be their race to lose.
Chevrolet has been in a similar boat to Toyota because Ford has dominated on this track in their own backyard. The blue ovals are a perfect 9-0 at this track since 2018 with five different drivers reaching victory lane in those nine races.
FireKeepers Casino 400 trends
- Six of the last eight Michigan winners have come from the Top-4 starting spots.
- Hendrick Motorsports hasn’t won a race at Michigan since 2014.
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Previous FireKeepers Casino 400 winners
Ford has had a stranglehold on the race held in its own backyard, winning six straight times at Michigan, though the now-retired Kevin Harvick took the checkered flag on four occasions.
| Year | Winner |
| 2023 | Chris Buescher |
| 2022 | Kevin Harvick |
| 2021 | Ryan Blaney |
| 2020 | Kevin Harvick |
| 2019 | Kevin Harvick |
| 2018 | Kevin Harvick |
| 2017 | Kyle Larson |
| 2016 | Kyle Larson |
| 2015 | Matt Kenseth |
| 2014 | Jeff Gordon |
How to make FireKeepers Casino 400 picks
NASCAR betting is a nuanced process that can take any number of factors into account, and spans several different types of bets. Fortunately, our How to Bet NASCAR guide walks you through the basics, including how to read odds, different markets that are available, and what to consider when making your bets.
