NASCAR's hitting the streets. Literally.
In a first-ever event, a city's streetscape will house the course for the nation's premiere racing circuit, with the Grant Park 220 taking over downtown Chicago as the pack tries to whittle away at Kyle Larson's NASCAR Cup Series odds lead.
How do bettors prepare for this unprecedented race?
Our Grant Park 220 odds are a great place to start — and keep reading below for the best betting picks in an event that's sure to contain a few surprises.
Odds to win 2023 Grant Park 220
| Driver | Odds to win |
|---|---|
| Tyler Reddick | +500 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +500 |
| Denny Hamlin | +550 |
| Shane Van Gisbergen | +750 |
| Christopher Bell | +900 |
| Kyle Larson | +1,100 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | +1,400 |
| Daniel Suarez | +1,600 |
| Chase Elliott | +2,000 |
| Ty Gibbs | +2,200 |
| Michael McDowell | +2,200 |
| Kyle Busch | +2,200 |
| Jenson Button | +2,200 |
| Joey Logano | +2,800 |
| Chris Buescher | +2,800 |
| William Byron | +3,500 |
| Austin Cindric | +5,500 |
| Ryan Blaney | +5,500 |
| Ross Chastain | +5,500 |
| Alex Bowman | +7,000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of July 2, 2023.
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Grant Park 220 field
There's much uncertainty abound for the Grant Park 220. While this track should race somewhat similar to a road course in theory (I mean, it's literally taking place on actual roads), everything from turn angles to pavement surfaces are completely unknown variables, leaving this race's field in flux.
Four drivers are tied as favorites — something you pretty much never see in this sport — and the +700 price they carry doesn't suggest a ton of confidence. It's no surprise to see Tyler Reddick and Chase Elliott as part of that quartet, the two being NASCAR's premiere road course racers.
The overall distribution of the top of this field is somewhat linear, if not a bit clustered. However, after a glut of nine drivers between +3,000 and +5,500, there's a steep dropoff to +10,000.
Grant Park 220 picks and predictions
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Grant Park 220 favorites
Martin Truex Jr. (+500)
He has to land here as a co-favorite. May be the hottest driver in the series right now with Truex not only having won in Sonoma two races ago, but also runner-up last Sunday too in Nashville, giving him four consecutive Top-5 finishes on the season and the points lead. It seems like the cream always rises to the top in inaugural events.
Chase Elliott (+700)
Why not here either? While he’s winless this season, Elliott has won three inaugural races since 2020 and all three were on road courses (Daytona, COTA, Road America) at that. Elliott was also just fifth at Sonoma last month and enters Sunday’s race on the heels of two consecutive Top-5 finishes overall including four Top-7 results in the last five races that he’s contested in.
Editor's note: Elliott's odds have gone from +700 to +2,000 since the writing of this piece. Elliott crashed hard during qualifying and will be starting from the 26th spot.
Kyle Larson (+1,100)
Larson has won two first-time trips to tracks since 2021. He won the Nashville race two years ago in dominating fashion, and while North Wilkesboro wasn’t an inaugural race last month, it was the first time that NASCAR came there since 1996, and without any experience, Larson won again. On road courses this season, he’s finished 14th (COTA) and eighth (Sonoma), respectively, and comes into Chicago with three consecutive Top-8 finishes.
Grant Park 220 sleepers
William Byron (+1,600)
Hendrick Motorsports has won half of the last 10 inaugural or first time races at tracks in a while and it seems like each was won by champions. Chase Elliott won the 2020 Daytona ROVAL and later won the title. Kyle Larson won the 2021 Nashville race and later won the championship. Joey Logano won the LA Coliseum and Gateway last year and would go on to win the title. Byron has three wins this season alone and looks like a title contender. He was fifth in COTA and 14th in Sonoma, with that Sonoma result being the only finish worse than eighth since April.
Denny Hamlin (+2,500)
Great value here for a driver who’s getting hot again. Hamlin has four Top-5 finishes in the last seven races, including two in the last three after having just one total Top-5 finish in the first 10 events of the season. While he was only 16th in COTA and 36th in Sonoma, the latest was due to a crash while running up front. Hamlin won the pole in Sonoma and had a Top-5 caliber car in the race.
Editor's note: Hamlin's odds have shortened all the way to +550 after he claimed pole position during qualifying.
Joey Logano (+3,000)
The Team Penske driver has been terrible on road courses lately, however, Logano has won an inaugural event in each of the last two seasons too. He won the first trip to Bristol Dirt in 2021, he won the first trip to the LA Coliseum as well as World Wide Technology Raceway in 2022. Can he win the first street race in 2023?
Grant Park 220 fades
Tyler Reddick (+700)
Seems weird fading a driver that’s been so good on road courses, but Toyota hasn’t won an inaugural race since 2011 in Kentucky and Reddick’s last three finishes on the season are 35th, 33rd, and 30th respectively.
Ryan Blaney (+3,000)
He used to be hot on the season, but has since lost it. While Blaney won the first-ever race on the Charlotte ROVAL, he was 21st and 31st, respectively, on road courses this season and has finished 31st and 36th, respectively, the last two races.
Kevin Harvick (+3,000)
He hasn’t finished in the Top 10 in either road course this season and has just one Top-5 finish since Easter.
Grant Park 220 prop pick - winning manufacturer
Another manufacturer prop that’s too good to pass up. Toyota has won three consecutive road courses now. They’re still getting plus-money when Chevrolet (-190) is the heavy favorite. Coming into the season, Chevy won 15 of the last 17 road course events including five of the six a year ago. However, Toyota’s since turned the tide in winning the final road course event in 2022 on the Charlotte ROVAL and now this year in COTA and Sonoma.
Pick: Winning manufacturer - Toyota (+190 at DraftKings)
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Chicago Street Course track analysis
This is probably one of the most difficult races to handicap in recent years. At least when NASCAR has gone to a new track, there’s somewhat of a slew of comparisons to use in regard to like tracks. While the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum was the last difficult one to pick, one could at least compare the track to short tracks on the schedule in general.
A street race in Chicago, however?
Never been done in the 75-year history of NASCAR. There’s not once been a stage street course event. While some may say to compare to other road courses — which is arguably the only thing that you can try to compare this to — a street event and road course are entirely different disciplines.
Natural road courses are free-flowing terrain venues which some space for runoff. Street courses are a hybrid of short-track elbows-out mentality vs. a wall staring you in the face as there’s not much room for error. These single-groove tracks don’t provide much room nor areas for passing, and in the ones that they’re in, it could cause chaos and crashing.
Which is why there are no real trends, no real comps, and nothing to base Sunday’s race on other than a gut feeling and momentum.
In saying that, we’ve had 10 new events added to the Cup Series schedule since 2018, and nine of the 10 were won by either Hendrick Motorsports (five) or Team Penske (four). The lone event that they didn’t win was the 2021 Verizon 200 on the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course, which A.J. Allmendinger and Kaulig Racing won.
However, Toyota, who was down on road courses last year, has won both road-course races in 2023 — but hasn’t won an inaugural event since 2011. Ford is probably the team to fade, leading just four laps in COTA and one in Sonoma. In fact, the entire Ford camp has led nine or fewer laps in six of the last seven races overall on the season too.
Grant Park 220 trends
- Starting spots have come in handy on road courses, and with a race on a street course, I have a feeling like it will again. Last year, the winner on road courses started 16th (COTA), eighth (Sonoma), fourth (Road America), pole (Indy), second (Watkins Glen), and eighth (Charlotte ROVAL). This year, they came from the pole (COTA) and eighth (Sonoma).
