Kyle Larson was yearning for a win last weekend and, sure enough, booked the checkered flag. Larson now finds him not only a favorite in this week's Hollywood Casino 400 odds, but atop the overall NASCAR Cup Series odds and standings.
Will the favorite continue asserting himself and finish on a dominant run, as he did in 2021?
As the Round of 12 begins, check out our Hollywood Casino 400 betting picks for the best wagers on Sunday's NASCAR race in Kansas.
Odds to win 2024 Hollywood Casino 400
| Driver |  |
 |
 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +330 | +400 | +350 |
| Denny Hamlin | +450 | +500 | +400 |
| Tyler Reddick | +700 | +850 | +700 |
| Christopher Bell | +1,100 | +1,300 | +1,000 |
| Chase Elliott | +1,100 | +1,300 | +1,400 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1,100 | +1,500 | +1,200 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +1,200 | +1,400 | +1,000 |
| William Byron | +1,400 | +1,600 | +900 |
| Kyle Busch | +1,400 | +2,500 | +2,000 |
| Chris Buescher | +1,800 | +2,000 | +1,400 |
| Bubba Wallace | +1,800 | +2,400 | +1,200 |
| Ty Gibbs | +2,000 | +2,000 | +2,000 |
| Joey Logano | +2,200 | +2,800 | +2,500 |
| Brad Keselowski | +2,200 | +2,500 | +2,200 |
| Ross Chastain | +2,800 | +3,000 | +2,500 |
| Chase Briscoe | +3,000 | +4,500 | +4,000 |
| Alex Bowman | +3,500 | +3,500 | +3,000 |
| Daniel Suarez | +5,000 | +6,500 | +6,000 |
| Noah Gragson | +7,000 | +9,000 | +5,000 |
| Austin Cindric | +7,000 | +10,000 | +12,500 |
Odds as of 9-25.
Hollywood Casino 400 field
Kyle Larson won at Bristol last weekend to snap a relative cold streak. His NASCAR-leading five wins have been spaced out this year, but he's always come through when needed. He comes in as Sunday's favorite, carrying very short odds for an outright (+330 at major books), having won earlier this year at Kansas, and previously on his 2021 romp to the Cup Series title.
Denny Hamlin finds himself Larson's bridesmaid on the odds board again this week, inches behind the favorite. Hamlin's a four-time Kansas winner and notched a fifth-place run here in the spring. His fourth-place finish last week helped him leap the playoff bubble, now in a much safer position for the Round of 12.
Tyler Reddick also finds himself south of 10:1, priced around +700 at most books. Reddick's the defending champion in this race, and while he's emerged as one of NASCAR's most prolific drivers, he's been mired in a bit of a funk, with an average finish of 18.2 over the past five races. He also finished 20th at Kansas in the spring, and despite winning here last fall, he finished ninth, 35th, and 30th in his prior three there.
Overall, the odds board continues to mirror the playoff field, with a bunch of closely-bunched drivers at short odds, then a steep drop beginning around the playoff bubble. It stands to reason that teams will be prioritizing their drivers that are still in the title hunt, and favorites as short as Larson and Hamlin suggest it will be tough for a longshot to emerge victorious at Kansas.
Hollywood Casino 400 expert picks and predictions
Odds listed below courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of 9-25.
Hollywood Casino 400 pre-qualifying favorites
Kyle Larson (+330)
Since 2021, Larson has led 132, 130, 29, zero, 85, 99, and 63 laps, respectively, in his last seven Kansas starts. He has two wins (Oct. 2021, May 2024) to show for it. Still, he has finished eighth or better in each race, including a runner-up finish in the last two spring races prior to this year’s win. The Hendrick Motorsports driver also won at Las Vegas Motor Speedway in March.
Chase Elliott (+1,100)
This season’s Texas winner was seventh and sixth in the pair of Kansas races last year, and third this spring, giving him 13 Top-12 finishes in his last 14 Kansas starts.
Christopher Bell (+1,100)
Five Top-8 finishes (eighth, fifth, third, 36th, eighth, and sixth) in his last six Kansas tries.
Hollywood Casino 400 sleepers
William Byron (+1,400)
He has seven Top-10 finishes in his last 10 starts at Kansas. While Byron was 23rd this spring, he also finished 10th in Vegas and third at Texas this season.
23XI Racing
The 45 car swept both races in 2022 via Kurt Busch in the spring and Bubba Wallace (+1,800) in the fall. Busch led 116 of 267 laps in that 2022 May race, while Wallace led 58 laps in his fall win. Wallace was also fourth last spring and 17th this spring. Tyler Reddick (+700) won in the 45 car last fall and was ninth in the spring race that year but 20th this year. He finished runner-up to Larson at Vegas and fourth in Texas.
Alex Bowman (+3,500)
The Hendrick Motorsports driver has 10 Top-11 finishes in his last 11 Kansas tries, including results of ninth, fourth, 10th, and seventh in his last four.
Hollywood Casino 400 fades
Martin Truex Jr. (+1,200)
Since 2017, he’s had a Top-10 finish in all but two Kansas starts, including sweeping both race wins in 2017. However, since 2020, he hasn’t finished better than fourth, with results of ninth, sixth, seventh, sixth, fifth, eighth, 36th, and fourth, respectively. Truex finished seventh in Vegas and 14th in Texas this season.
Ryan Blaney (+1,200)
The Ford driver was third in Vegas but 33rd in Texas and 12th here. He hasn’t finished better than seventh at Kansas since 2017, with just three Top-10 finishes in that span.
Ross Chastain (+2,800)
Seventh in both races last year and fifth last spring could land him on the sleepers list. However, while he was fourth in Vegas, he’s never finished better than fifth here and was 32nd in Texas and 19th this spring.
Hollywood Casino 400 prop pick
Denny Hamlin Top-3 finish (+140)
He was fifth this past spring for his eighth Top-5 finish in his last Kansas 10 tries, including three wins and a pair of runner-up results in that span. With this new style of car, his finishes are fourth, second, first, second and fifth, respectively.
That’s why despite finishing eighth at Las Vegas and 30th at Texas this year, leading 71 laps in the spring race and crashing with Chase Elliott while battling for the lead at Texas gives me high optimism on Hamlin to deliver.
Pick: Denny Hamlin Top-3 finish (+140 at DraftKings)
Popular motor sports futures odds
Kansas Speedway track analysis
Toyota has won seven of the last 10 Kansas races and nine of the last 15.
The manufacturer went 1-3-4-5-6 in the spring race in 2022 (171 of 267 laps led) and 1-2-3-5 in the fall (94 of 267 laps led). They combined to lead 265 of 534 laps (49.6%) for 2022 on this track. Last spring, they went 1-4-8-9 and combined to lead 148 of 267 (55.4%). In the playoff race, Toyotas led 83 of 268 laps and finished 1-2.
This year’s spring race, Toyota had two cars in the Top 5, and 78 combined laps led in 268 laps of racing.
The closest comparison to this track on the schedule is Las Vegas Motor Speedway, while the drivers who typically excel in the Vegas spring race are also strong at Kansas.
Since 2011, every Kansas winner has won a series championship, with the exception of Hamlin and Bubba Wallace. In fact, only Hamlin, Ryan Newman, Mark Martin, Greg Biffle, Joe Nemechek, and Wallace have won at Kansas and not also won a Cup title. Kyle Larson joined that list, but only for a few months in the Fall of 2021 before he became a champion.
I’d also still side with a playoff driver to win, too, as only four non-Playoff drivers have won a NASCAR Cup Series Playoff race at Kansas Speedway.
Hollywood Casino 400 trends
- Each of the last nine Kansas winners has started in the Top 10. Fifteen of the last 17 Kansas winners even started in the Top 6 Rows.
- The eventual race winner scored stage points in every first stage under the stage era, with the exception of the 2022 spring race. Denny Hamlin won Stage 1 last spring, Reddick was sixth last fall, and Larson third this spring.
- The eventual race winner finished in the Top 5 in eight of the last 10 second stages and 11 of the 15 overall second stages. Hamlin was 10th last spring, Reddick fifth in the fall race, and Larson second in the spring of this year.
- The odd thing is, the eventual race winner at Kansas has actually won the second stage only twice (2019 playoff race, May 2022).
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Previous Hollywood Casino 400 winners
Wallace broke the typical mold as a non-playoff winner in 2022, but expect one of the drivers still in the running for the Cup Series to take this weekend's crown.
| Year | Winner |
| 2023 | Tyler Reddick |
| 2022 | Bubba Wallace |
| 2021 | Kyle Larson |
| 2020 | Joey Logano |
| 2019 | Denny Hamlin |
| 2018 | Chase Elliott |
| 2017 | Martin Truex Jr, |
| 2016 | Kevin Harvick |
| 2015 | Joey Logano |
| 2014 | Joey Logano |
How to make Hollywood Casino 400 picks
NASCAR betting is a nuanced process that can take any number of factors into account, and spans several different types of bets. Fortunately, our How to Bet NASCAR guide walks you through the basics, including how to read odds, different markets that are available, and what to consider when making your bets.
