When the NASCAR Cup Series drivers head down to "Sin City," Christopher Bell will look to take his fourth race in a row. This historic feat was accomplished by only eight drivers before him, with the latest triumph coming almost 20 years ago in 2007 by Jimmie Johnson.
Once again, with the oddsmakers at Bell's behest, we'll take our betting dollars elsewhere when choosing the best NASCAR race picks.
After honorary grand marshal Morgan Freeman utters "the four most famous words in motor sports," live Sunday on FS1 at 3:30 PM, expect Tyler Reddick to be the best amongst the Toyotas.
Here are my free betting picks for the NASCAR Pennzoil 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
NASCAR prop picks for Pennzoil 400
- Top Toyota: Tyler Reddick (+225 at bet365)
- Winning Manufacturer: Chevrolet (+115 at bet365)
- Chris Buescher over Alex Bowman (+130 at bet365)
NASCAR Pennzoil 400 props and best bets
Top Toyota: Tyler Reddick (+225 at bet365)
As good as we all know Tyler Reddick is at a track like Las Vegas Motor Speedway, this play is purely based on an asset's undervaluation and another's overvaluation.
The casual NASCAR fan believes backing Bell across the board for the fourth week in a row will yield a profitable result. However, the harsh reality is that Bell's value is at its peak, just like Bitcoin was a couple of months ago. Now, it's time for the rug to be pulled.
"Oh, that's the gambler's fallacy thinking that Bell's 'due' for a loss."
I don't know about that one, Chief. The probability of Bell doing the thing just ain't there. In NASCAR's decades-long history, only eight drivers have won four in a row. The last time it was done was by Jimmie Johnson in 2007, and the talent gap was arguably much larger.
With stricter rules encouraging a more leveled playing field and the introduction of the NextGen car, the competition has become much stiffer. It would be all the more impressive if Bell could pull off the "four peat."
Almost any price the bookies list for Bell will be -EV. On the other hand, if you're willing to roll the dice, there are some good prices to buy into.
This leads us to Tyler Reddick.
Reddick led Cup practice in October 2024 with the fastest lap time of 183.187 mph at Las Vegas Motor Speedway. In fact, in the spring of last year, Reddick finished second in this exact race.
Yes, he was involved in a freak crash during Stage 2 in the 2024 playoff race, resulting in his car flipping through the frontstretch grass. Scratch that out, though, and Reddick's overall record at Las Vegas demands respect, with five Top-10 finishes in seven races before that incident.
And you're telling me I can get him at +225 to be the top Toyota driver, when he should be at best +135 to +150? Sign me up.
Winning Manufacturer: Chevrolet (+115 at bet365)
Riddle me this: If Bell is such a strong favorite to win the Pennzoil 400, why is Chevrolet favored to be the winning manufacturer pre-qualifying?
The Chevys have had some success at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, having won 13 out of 34 Cup Series races, including four of the last six in the Next Gen era.
Defending spring race winner Kyle Larson leads the charge for Chevrolet, aiming for his fourth Las Vegas victory. Not far behind him, William Byron, Chase Elliott, and even Ross Chastain all have realistic chances of winning the race. In 2024, all the aforementioned drivers finished in the Top 10 in terms of laps in the top five at 1.5 mile tracks.
Laps run in the Top 5 at 1.5 mile tracks in 2024 pic.twitter.com/cc66mbHvHh
— NASCAR Insights (@NASCARInsights) March 13, 2025
There's still tons of noise surrounding Kyle Busch and his pursuit of a win in 2025. Plus, we haven't even mentioned Alex Bowman, who always seems to be a dark horse in these spots.
Outside of Bell, Reddick, and Danny Hamlin, the Toyotas don't have much to offer. This feels like a spot where Chevy can muster out a win.
I have Chevy priced closer to even odds, so +115 isn't a steal, but it's around where it should be. Let's give it a try.
Chris Buescher over Alex Bowman (+130 at bet365)
Taking a Ford over a Chevy is never an easy bet, but we're doing it.
In the 2024 season, Chris Buescher demonstrated remarkable consistency, completing 99.8% of all laps and finishing 35 out of 36 races. His average finish improved to 11.3, ranking him seventh among all drivers.
Notably, Buescher secured two wins and 12 top-5 finishes in 2024, including a career-best third at Las Vegas in the fall race. His performance on 1.5-mile tracks has been particularly strong, with an average finish of 9.2 across these venues in the last 10 races.
In contrast, Bowman has struggled to find consistent form, finishing 18th in points in 2024 and currently sitting 16th in the 2025 standings.
Although this feels like a trap, given that I just mentioned Bowman is a dark horse in races like these, getting +130 on Buescher is too good to pass up. This should be a pick 'em at best.
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