The NASCAR Cup Series season is winding down as the Straight Talk Wireless 400, the antepenultimate race of 2024, is set for Sunday at Homestead-Miami.
Kyle Larson is in a familiar spot as the betting favorite, but he let his backers down last week as Joey Logano won his way into the Championship 4 in Las Vegas.
Our free betting picks tell you who you should be backing this weekend.
Odds to win 2024 Straight Talk Wireless 400
| Driver |  |
 |
|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | +330 | +300 |
| Tyler Reddick | +600 | +700 |
| Christopher Bell | +600 | +600 |
| William Byron | +700 | +700 |
| Ryan Blaney | +1,000 | +1,000 |
| Denny Hamlin | +1,000 | +900 |
| Chase Elliott | +1,400 | +1,600 |
| Martin Truex Jr. | +1,600 | +1,600 |
| Joey Logano | +1,700 | +2,500 |
| Ross Chastain | +1,700 | +1,800 |
| Kyle Busch | +1,800 | +2,000 |
| Ty Gibbs | +2,200 | +2,000 |
| Brad Keselowski | +2,200 | +1,600 |
| Bubba Wallace | +2,800 | +3,000 |
| Alex Bowman | +3,500 | +2,200 |
| Chris Buescher | +4,000 | +3,000 |
| Chase Briscoe | +5,500 | +6,000 |
| Daniel Suarez | +6,000 | +6,600 |
| Austin Cindric | +9,000 | +10,000 |
| Noah Gragson | +10,000 | +15,000 |
Odds as of 10-23.
Straight Talk Wireless 400 field
Kyle Larson, the 2022 Homestead-Miami race winner, holds steady as the pre-qualifying favorite for the Straight Talk Wireless 400. Behind him are last year's winner, Christopher Bell, along with Tyler Reddick and William Byron all below +1,000. Denny Hamlin and Ryan Blaney can also be found in the +1,000 range.
Joey Logano, already onto the Championship 4, is the longest-priced playoff driver at +1,700 at DraftKings, followed by Chase Elliott at +1,400.
Straight Talk Wireless 400 expert picks and predictions
Odds listed below courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of 10-23.
Straight Talk Wireless 400 pre-qualifying favorites
Kyle Larson (+330)
Homestead is most similar to Darlington and Kyle Larson won the 2023 Southern 500 and led 263 of 367 laps, including sweeping both stages there on Labor Day weekend. He led 199 of 267 laps in his 2022 Homestead victory, too. Prior to his Lap 214 crash at Homestead last year, Larson led 96 laps and finished first and third, respectively, in the pair of stages. Larson has five Top-5 finishes in his last eight Homestead starts with laps led of two, 132, 145, 45, zero, five, 199 and 96, respectively.
Tyler Reddick (+600)
This is his race and his type of track. Tyler Reddick was fourth in 2020, runner-up in 2021, and third last year. While he exited early in 2022 for his only result worse than fourth at Homestead, he's finished second in two of the last three Southern 500s at Darlington, too.
Christopher Bell (+600)
The defending winner has two Top-10 finishes in four Homestead Cup tries. Christopher Bell was 13th and third, respectively, at Darlington this season.
William Byron (+700)
The 2021 winner has three Top-10 finishes in his last four Homestead tries, including a fourth-place finish last season. William Byron has three Top-6 finishes in his last four Darlington starts, too.
Straight Talk Wireless 400 sleepers
Ryan Blaney (+1,000)
Among Ryan Blaney's two Top-3 finishes in his last four Homestead starts is a runner-up to Bell last season.
Ross Chastain (+1,700)
Ross Chastain has two playoff victories without being championship eligible. Homestead could be a third. He finished 11th and fifth, respectively, at Darlington this season and was runner-up in this race in 2022.
Kyle Busch (+1,800)
Kyle Busch has six Top-6 finishes in his last nine Homestead starts, including four of which in the Top-4. Busch had a car capable of winning this year’s Southern 500 but finished runner-up, instead.
Ty Gibbs (+2,200)
Ty Gibbs finished runner-up at Darlington this spring, and seventh in this race last year.
Straight Talk Wireless 400 fades
Denny Hamlin (+1,000)
Denny Hamlin won by sweeping both stages in 2020, but I’m fading him. The reasoning is Hamlin has finished 11th, seventh, and 30th, respectively, the last three years with his three wins in 2009, 2013, and 2020 being his only Top-5 finishes in the last 16 tries.
Chase Elliott (+1,400)
Chase Elliott has three Top-7’s in his last six Homestead starts, but he’s also winless here and Darlington, too. He was 12th and 11th this past year at Darlington and 15th the last time out at Homestead.
Martin Truex Jr. (+1,600)
Three Top-2s in his last six Homestead tries and a car capable of winning in 2022 before a bad pit stop on the final one. Still, Martin Truex Jr. finished 29th last year and 25th and 36th, respectively, at Darlington this season.
Joey Logano (+1,700)
Prior to 2020, Logano had finished fourth, fourth, sixth, first and fifth, respectively, in a five-year span. Since? 27th, 25th, 18th, and eighth.
Straight Talk Wireless 400 prop pick: RFK Racing Duo Top 5 Finish
Last year, Brad Keselowski qualified fourth, led four times for 16 laps, and finished second and fifth in the two stages. The 28th-place finish was an outlier because the No. 6 Ford had speed. He finished fifth in 2022 and was also fourth and sixth at Darlington last year while winning there this past spring.
His teammate Chris Buescher won the opening stage here in 2021, including 57 laps led. However, contact on a second stage restart ruined his handling which dropped him to outside the Top-15. Buescher is at his best on aged tracks. He was run into while leading at Darlington this spring and finished sixth in the Southern 500.
Pick: Keselowski & Buescher each Top 5 (+775 at DraftKings)
Popular motor sports futures odds
Homestead-Miami track analysis
Homestead-Miami is most similar to Darlington in a sense that both tracks feature high tire wear and the same drivers fighting for wins at both. Typically, if someone is good one year at Darlington, they’re also good at Homestead, and vice versa. With that said, Ford swept Darlington this season but has just one win in the last 13 years here.
Toyota has three wins in the last five Homestead races, including five of the last seven, making them the ones to watch. However, Chevrolet won this race in 2022 with HMS drivers winning two of the last four at Homestead.
Straight Talk Wireless 400 trends
- Eight of the last 11 winners came from the Top 5 of the starting lineup.
- Since NASCAR started using stage breaks in 2017, the eventual winner is 13-for-14 with stage points.
- In fact, 12 of the 14 stages saw the eventual winner finish in the Top-5. The only exception is Bell, who finished ninth and no stage points, respectively, last year.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Straight Talk Wireless 400 info
| Location: | Homestead-Miami Speedway, Homestead, FL |
| Date: | Sunday, 10-27-2024 |
| Start time: | 2:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NBC |
Previous Straight Talk Wireless 400 winners
The annual sojourn to Homestead-Miami has drifted about the NASCAR calendar since being cast aside as the Championship-deciding race beginning in 2020. Ford has won just once here since 2010, when Joey Logano clinched his first title in 2018.
| Year | Winner |
| 2023 | Christopher Bell |
| 2022 | Kyle Larson |
| 2021 | William Byron |
| 2020 | Denny Hamlin |
| 2019 | Kyle Busch |
| 2018 | Joey Logano |
| 2017 | Martin Truex Jr. |
| 2016 | Jimmie Johnson |
| 2015 | Kyle Busch |
| 2014 | Kevin Harvick |
How to make Straight Talk Wireless 400 picks
NASCAR betting is a nuanced process that can take any number of factors into account, and spans several different types of bets. Fortunately, our How to Bet NASCAR guide walks you through the basics, including how to read odds, different markets that are available, and what to consider when making your bets.
