Josh Berry left motorsports fans gobsmacked last week after picking up his first career Cup Series win at Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the Wood Brothers. However, as the adage goes, what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas.
When the drivers start to rev their engines at Homestead-Miami Speedway this Sunday at 3:00 pm EST on FS1, I'm expecting Kyle Larson and the rest of the Chevrolet drivers to show up in a big way.
I'll review the NASCAR Cup Series odds and give out my pre-qualifying free betting picks below.
NASCAR prop picks for Straight Talk Wireless 400
- Top 3 finish: Kyle Larson (+110 at bet365)
- Winning Manufacturer: Chevrolet (+120 at bet365)
- Ty Gibbs over Josh Berry (+110 at bet365)
NASCAR Straight Talk Wireless 400 props and best bets
Top 3 finish: Kyle Larson (+110 at bet365)
I can imagine what you're thinking: You tout Kyle Larson every week, Holmesy. At this point, the act starts to get old. There's simply no value at +110 when there are SOOOOO many things that could go wrong.
To that, I'll say this: Years from now, when my hair is starting to grey, and all the current drivers we're discussing careers' are long over, we'll say Larson was the G.O.A.T. of his generation. He might not get the love of Richard Petty or Dale Earnhardt, but the real fans who know and love NASCAR will rightfully give Larson his flowers.
Now, pushing all that subjectivity to the wayside, let's look at the empirical data for Larson at Homestead-Miami Speedway:
- Larson has led 626 laps at Homestead-Miami Speedway, the most of all active Cup Series drivers.
- In the Next Gen car era, Larson has led 1,286 laps on 1.5-mile tracks, nearly double the next-closest driver (Christopher Bell, 614).
- Larson has 12 stage wins on 1.5-mile tracks in the Next Gen car, more than double any other driver.
- Larson's average finish at Homestead-Miami is 13.0 over 11 starts, with five Top-5 finishes.
- Larson is the only repeat stage winner in the 2025 season so far.
- Larson won at Homestead-Miami in 2022, leading 199 of 267 laps.
Look, I get this very well could be a sucker bet. That said, if you gave me plus money on the OVER for Michael Jordan's points + rebounds + assists prop in his prime, I'd take it every damn day of the week.
Larson is more than capable of finishing in the Top 3 and winning this race outright. As I just proved, there's tons of data to back my claim up. I'd reckon if Larson had finished better in Las Vegas, you'd be getting a much shorter price on this prop. Let's buy-in at +110 and let NASCAR's golden boy show the haters why he's one of the best to ever get behind the wheel.
Winning Manufacturer: Chevrolet (+120 at bet365)
Straight talk: if the Chevrolet drivers qualify well, this number can easily be shortened to -110. So right off the bat, we're getting some good value.
When it comes to drivers, there are some standout performers at Homestead-Miami Speedway.
As we discussed earlier, Larson dominated at Homestead in 2022, leading an impressive 199 laps to take the win. William Byron also has a strong history here, having won the Dixie Vodka 400 in 2021 and currently sitting as the points leader in 2025.
Then there's Chase Elliott, who boasts an average finish of 9.8 at Homestead, with three Top-5 finishes and a best finish of second place in 2020. Make no mistake about it, Elliott's like the bullet in a loaded gun waiting to be fired.
Adding to this, Chevrolet drivers have shown great momentum this season. Byron kicked off 2025 with a win at the Daytona 500, while Elliott is currently ranked fourth in the points standings.
Plus, drivers like Kyle Busch and Ross Chastain can always show up when you least expect it.
Ty Gibbs over Josh Berry (+110 at bet365)
When I saw this race match-up on the bet365 app, I said right off the hop this should be a pick 'em.
Hats off to Berry and the Wood Brothers for their big win in Las Vegas last week, but that's just an irregularity, not the new norm. Yes, momentum is a real thing that can't be quantified. Nevertheless, it's not like Berry is that much better a driver than Ty Gibbs.
Plus, Gibbs drives for his granddaddy at Joe Gibbs Racing, which is a far more competitive team week in and week out than Berry's. Although Ty isn't the star of his team, he constantly gets to drive a good car that handles well. That's not always the case for Berry.
At plus money, I'll bet that Berry regresses a bit this week and hope that Ty Gibbs stays on the lead lap. With March Madness already inducing many sweats for yours truly, I ain't afraid of burning a few more calories.
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