Xfinity 500: Martinsville Picks, Betting Odds & Race Preview

Race No. 35 of 36 in the NASCAR Cup Series season is set for Sunday as the drivers visit Martinsville for the second time in 2024 in the Xfinity 500.

This race will serve as the final cutoff of the NASCAR playoffs, as the Championship 4 will be determined once the checkered flag waves on November 3.

Who will punch their ticket to Phoenix next Sunday? Find out in our free betting picks for the Xfinity 500.

Odds to win 2024 Xfinity 500

Driver
Kyle Larson	+400	+450
Denny Hamlin	+400	+450
Ryan Blaney	+600	+600
Chase Elliott	+800	+900
William Byron	+800	+1,000
Christopher Bell	+1,000	+1,200
Joey Logano	+1,200	+1,400
Martin Truex Jr.	+1,800	+2,000
Tyler Reddick	+2,000	+2,000
Chase Briscoe	+2,200	+2,200
Ty Gibbs	+2,200	+2,200
Ross Chastain	+2,800	+2,800
Kyle Busch	+2,800	+2,800
Bubba Wallace	+2,800	+2,800
Brad Keselowski	+2,800	+2,800
Chris Buescher	+3,500	+3,500
Josh Berry	+3,500	+3,500
Alex Bowman	+3,500	+3,500
Austin Cindric	+5,500	+5,000
Ryan Preece	+9,000	+8,000

Odds as of 10-30.

Xfinity 500 field

One week after Joey Logano won his way into the Championship 4 after nearly missing the Round of 8 cutoff, Tyler Reddick also sewed up his shot at the title with a dramatic last-lap pass at Homestead-Miami.

In both instances, these drivers went from below the cut line to over it and through to the next round. If the Round of 8 was over now, Christopher Bell and William Byron would be moving ahead on points while Kyle Larson and Denny Hamlin would be eliminated, a shocking development considering Larson and Hamlin are almost always in the Top 2 or Top 3 in terms of pre-qualifying odds.

That's the case once more with linemakers smelling the desperation from these camps, as Larson and Hamlin opened tied for favoritism with Ryan Blaney close behind. Blaney is in a virtual must-win situation if he wants a shot at defending his title, and the same can be said for Chase Elliott, who is right behind Blaney. 

Xfinity 500 expert picks and predictions

Odds listed below courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook as of 10-30.

Xfinity 500 pre-qualifying favorites

Denny Hamlin (+400)
Denny Hamlin could really use a win and Martinsville is a great spot for it to occur. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver has three Top-5 finishes with four stage wins in his last four Martinsville starts. He’s also led 103 or more laps in four of his last seven races here. 

Kyle Larson (+400)
Kyle Larson has six Top-10 finishes in his last eight Martinsville tries, including his last five finishes being second, first, sixth, second, and second, respectively. Larson started on pole and led 86 laps this spring. 

Ryan Blaney (+600)
Ryan Blaney stomped the field with 145 laps led and a Championship 4-sealing victory last year. Included was stage finishes of second and first, respectively. Blaney has nine Top-5 finishes in his last 13 Martinsville starts, including a fifth-place finish in the spring.

Xfinity 500 sleepers

Joey Logano (+1,200)
Joey Logano hasn’t won at Martinsville since the 2018 playoff race. However, he has finished in the Top-10 in 10 of the 11 races since. Logano was second, sixth, second, fifth, and sixth, respectively, in the last five. 

Chase Briscoe (+2,200)
Chase Briscoe has five consecutive Top-10 finishes and four straight Top-5 qualifying efforts at Martinsville. Last season, he qualified fourth and third, respectively, while finishing fifth and fourth. He led 109 laps last spring with stage finishes of fifth and second. This spring, he qualified fifth, finished fourth and seventh in the pair of stages, and 10th in the race. 

Bubba Wallace (+2,800)
Bubba Wallace won a Truck Series race here and has four consecutive Top-11 finishes on the track, including a fourth-place finish from the No. 2 starting spot this spring. 

Ryan Preece (+9,000)
While his finishes last year were 15th and 20th, respectively, he qualified on the pole and ninth. Ryan Preece led 135 laps and won the first stage in the first race. Pit road was the reason for his demise. In the second race, he finished eighth and seventh, respectively, in the two stages. Preece charged from 22nd to finish ninth this spring. 

Xfinity 500 fades

Chase Elliott (+800) 
The 2020 playoff race winner has two Top-5 finishes at Martinsville in the seven starts since. With the Next Gen car, Chase Elliott finished 10th, 10th, 10th, 17th, and third here. 

Christopher Bell (+1,200) 
Christopher Bell’s 2022 playoff win is the lone Top-5 finish in his last nine Martinsville starts. Bell has only led in two of his 12 Martinsville races. He finished 35th this spring. 

Martin Truex Jr. (+1,800) 
The Next Gen car hasn’t suited Martin Truex Jr. at Martinsville. He had three wins in five starts entering this new car era. He has since finished 22nd, 29th, third, 12th, and 18th. He qualified in the Top-5 in both races last season but had 47 laps led between both events to show for it. He started fourth in the spring without a lap led. 

Xfinity 500 prop pick: William Byron Top 5

William Byron won the spring race for his fifth Top-7 finish in his last seven Martinsville starts. However, the last time we saw a Martinsville sweep was 2010. The safe bet is a Top-5 play. 

Pick: William Byron Top 5 (+100 at DraftKings)

Martinsville track analysis

Martinsville is a unique track with long straights and tight corners. This first trip of the season was 100 laps shorter than the fall visit, or about a 53-mile differential. Will it truly change the outcome?

It may.

We’ve had 15 Martinsville races since the stage era began in 2017. In those 15 races, the leader at Lap 400 failed to win the race in the end five times. 

Joe Gibbs Racing, Team Penske, and Hendrick Motorsports have combined to win 18 of the last 19 Martinsville races, with five of the last eight belonging to HMS, who went 1-2-3 in the spring. 

Only three times has the Martinsville fall race winner not been a part of the playoffs, they were Hendrick Motorsports drivers all three times (2005 – Jeff Gordon, 2014 – Dale Earnhardt Jr., 2021 – Bowman). On top of that, only five times has a non-playoff driver won the ninth race of the postseason (2005 – Kyle Busch, 2011 – Kasey Kahne, 2015 – Dale Earnhardt Jr., 2017 – Matt Kenseth and 2021 – Alex Bowman,).

There’s also been nine straight different winners of this fall race (Dale Earnhardt Jr., Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Busch, Joey Logano, Martin Truex Jr., Chase Elliott, Alex Bowman, Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney). That’s an HMS win in five of the last 10 fall races. They’ve also won this race 12 of the last 20 years and a record 29 times all-time. That’s more than double the next-best mark, held by Joe Gibbs Racing (14 wins). 

Xfinity 500 trends

• The front row starters have failed to win each of the last 22 Martinsville races overall.
  
  
• The last nine overall Martinsville races were won by a driver coming from fifth on back.
  
  
• Three of the last four Martinsville playoff races were won by a driver below the playoff cutline.

Xfinity 500 info

Previous Xfinity 500 winners

Four of the last eight NASCAR Cup Series champions have won the Xfinity 500 prior to sealing their championship in the final race of the year, including Ryan Blaney in 2023.

How to make Xfinity 500 picks

NASCAR betting is a nuanced process that can take any number of factors into account, and spans several different types of bets. Fortunately, our How to Bet NASCAR guide walks you through the basics, including how to read odds, different markets that are available, and what to consider when making your bets. 

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