2022-23 NBA Picks: Championship, MVP, and Futures Props Predictions

The beginning of a new NBA season is a time when hope springs eternal. Every team has a chance to win a title, every player has a shot at an individual trophy, and every bettor has an opportunity to make a bundle on an outrageous longshot.

That sense of optimism – and prevailing feeling of parity – are both apparent in our annual Covers NBA Staff Picks. We asked our top basketball minds to share their NBA Championship, NBA MVP and favorite futures picks for the upcoming 2022-23 season, and their answers covered the gamut.

That was especially evident in our MVP category, as four different players from four different divisions all received a vote. Even our two diehard Los Angeles Lakers fans couldn't agree on how L.A. will fare in LeBron’s fifth season in purple and gold.

Although our staff didn’t come to a consensus, they did agree that there’s still plenty of value available for savvy bettors, especially in some lesser-known markets. Check out their free NBA picks and analysis below before the new season tips off on October 18.

NBA picks for 2022-23

Writer	Champion	MVP	Favorite futures bet
Rory Breasail	Golden State Warriors	Nikola Jokic	Draymond Green to win Defensive Player of the Year
Andrew Caley	Milwaukee Bucks	Ja Morant	Raptors Over 46.5 wins
Jason Logan	Los Angeles Lakers	Joel Embiid	76ers to win Atlantic Division
Ryan Murphy	Golden State Warriors	Ja Morant	Los Angeles Lakers Under 46.5 wins
AJ Salah	Milwaukee Bucks	Kawhi Leonard	Jalen Green to average 22+ PPG and Rockets to win 24+ games

Click on each writer's name to view their analysis below.

Rory Breasail, NBA Contributor (@bballgodsblog)

NBA Championship pick: Golden State Warriors

This is one of the tougher fields in recent memory, and while I seriously considered one of the East’s top dogs, I ultimately have to back the Golden State Warriors to repeat. They simply have the deepest, most cohesive team with top-end talent that rivals or bests anyone else’s in the NBA. And unlike most of their competition, their chances are bolstered by a slew of younger talent waiting in the wings.

Best odds: +700 at FanDuel

MVP pick: Nikola Jokic

You’ve heard the counterarguments already. Luka Doncic is finally in shape. Giannis is the best player in the NBA. There’s voter fatigue. But the path to a third Nikola Jokic MVP should not be underestimated.

Draymond Green on Nikola Jokic: “Absolutely incredible player. That’s the reason he was MVP last year. That’s probably the reason he’s going to be MVP again. It was absolutely amazing to play against him. He made me better.”pic.twitter.com/zOzIH8heZ9

— Harrison Wind (@HarrisonWind) April 28, 2022

Jokic is still improving on already historic production, he never misses games, and he could easily helm the league's No. 1 overall seed. Giannis didn’t lose out on a third straight MVP because of voter fatigue, the Milwaukee Bucks saw a dropoff in team success in 2021 on route to a title. The opposite should be true for the finally whole Denver Nuggets, opening the door for Jokic to win a third straight time, a steal at +1,200.

Best odds: +1,200 at Caesars

Favorite futures bet: Draymond Green for Defensive Player of the Year

Because NBA defense is something of a black box, narrative and spotlight are more important to this pick than any other award. Rarely does a figure come out of left field to win Defensive Player of the Year like last year's winner Marcus Smart, and an outlier win like that augers a return to normalcy in 2022-23. That leaves two prime candidates in my eyes: Rudy Gobert and Draymond Green. Gobert is chasing a historic fourth DPOY trophy, and his new Minnesota Timberwolves teammates are seemingly better equipped than the Utah Jazz were to maximize his talents. But rightly or wrongly, there is a certain element of awards voters who believe that Gobert is a less valuable defender than the analytics suggest.

Enter Draymond Green. Prior playoff performance does influence regular season awards voting, and Green just captained yet another championship-level defense. Green’s public image is in the tank right now, but the season is long and he has all the more motivation to prove that he’s the best defender of his generation. I might make Gobert a slight favorite to win this award on the ledger, but right now Green is +1,100 while Rudy is +425. That’s a ton of value to back Draymond.

Best odds: +1,100 at DraftKings

Andrew Caley, Senior Betting Analyst (@Covers_Caley)

NBA Championship pick: Milwaukee Bucks

I’m all in for the Giannis Antetokounmpo revenge tour. And I think getting the Bucks at +800 at DraftKings to win the NBA Championship is a steal. Those are the fifth best odds overall and third among Eastern Conference teams. But for my money Milwaukee should be the favorite.

This Bucks team has the fewest questions among East contenders, has had a .622 winning percentage or better in four straight seasons, and has the best player on the planet. They’ll survive the early part of the season without Khris Middleton because this team is deep and dangerous.

Best odds: +800 at DraftKings

MVP pick: Ja Morant

Luka and Giannis are the favorites for a reason. And LeBron at +2,500 is intriguing. But my favorite combination of value and actual chance of winning the award has to be Ja Morant.

The Grizzlies' high-flying point guard averaged 27.4 points, 6.7 assists, 5.7 rebounds, and 1.2 steals for a team that went 56-26 last season. Morant was rising up MVP boards before he got hurt. He ended up playing just 57 games and finished seventh in MVP voting.

The scary thing is, he hasn't come close to reaching his full potential yet. If Morant can stay healthy, he could finish much higher than seventh for a team that is ascending in the West.

Best odds: +1,500 at DraftKings

Favorite futures bet: Raptors Over 46.5 wins

Time and again oddsmakers overlook Toronto. This is one of the best-run franchises in the NBA. The Raptors have a fantastic coach in Nick Nurse. They are probably deeper than they’ve been since winning the NBA title since 2019. Oh, and they have a future super star in Scottie Barnes.

The Raps didn’t make any sexy moves this offseason like some other teams in the East. But when all is said and done, they’ll have had another solid regular season and end up in the 4-or-5 spot in the conference. Toronto has Over its projected win total eight times in the last nine seasons. The only time it didn’t was the year in Tampa, and that definitely shouldn't count.

Best odds: -110 at FanDuel

Jason Logan, Senior Industry Analyst (@CoversJLo)

NBA Championship pick: Los Angeles Lakers

The trainwreck that was Lakers basketball in 2021-22 has taken the shine of the LeBron James Era in L.A. And while this is a complete homer pick from a big L.A. fan, the Lakers have a very high ceiling with James, Anthony Davis and Russell Westbrook – who I think was humbled and has shown some positives in his season prep for 2022-23. The supporting cast is better, especially in the backcourt, with Pat Bev in and Schröder’s second go-around, along with Kendrick Nunn’s comeback. I can’t count out the King just yet.

Best odds: +2,500 at FanDuel

MVP pick: Joel Embiid

The Sixers are a mess without their big man in the middle, so his “value” is undisputed. Embiid is a force on both ends of the floor and has the best team around him that he’s ever had in Philly.

it's a bird, it's a plane, it's JOEL EMBIID. ?????? pic.twitter.com/QwnDLTtVAY

— Philadelphia 76ers (@sixers) April 29, 2022

The thing I like about Embiid is that he welcomes the challenge to go up against the NBA’s best, upping his game whenever the Bucks, Celtics, or Nets show up on the schedule. He’s just got to stay healthy enough to hoist his MVP trophy.

Best odds: +700 at FanDuel

Favorite futures bet: 76ers to win Atlantic Division

The Celtics are shaky after an offseason of drama and the Nets are one bad night away from imploding, leaving the 76ers as a live bet to win the Atlantic. The Sixers hung on to a very deep and talented group while adding personnel in all the right places. It’s not all on Embiid either, with James Harden committing to winning in Philly. Believe in the Beard!

Best odds: +300 at DraftKings

Ryan Murphy, Managing Editor (@ryanjamesmurphy)

NBA Championship pick: Golden State Warriors

Yes, I'm aware that Golden State's top three stars are now on the wrong side of 30, but the Warriors are uniquely positioned to help relieve their aging core with an infusion of young talent led by Jonathan Kuminga. The 19-year-old forward displayed flashes of brilliance in his rookie season and scored 17 points or more three times in the playoffs.

Steve Kerr’s squad should also receive a lift from Moses Moody, who erupted for a season-high 30 points during a regular-season game against the Denver Nuggets in March, and former No. 2 pick James Wiseman, who recently showed off his hops and health in preseason play.

The Warriors will look different in 2002-23, just as they looked different after their last title, but they possess the perfect infusion of youth and experience to capture their fifth championship in nine years.

Best odds: +700 at FanDuel

MVP pick: Ja Morant

No player made a bigger leap - both literally and figuratively - last season than Ja Morant.

We interrupt #KlayDay to show you this absolutely ridiculous block by Ja Morant ???? pic.twitter.com/nQDsCMz1mG

— Ballislife.com (@Ballislife) January 10, 2022

The high-flying point guard increased his scoring average by 8.3 points per game and posted career highs in all of his key shooting metrics. Morant's performance propelled the Grizzlies all the way to the Western Conference semifinals, and earned him Most Improved Player honors along the way. It was an impressive season from one of the league's most precocious young stars, and if he continues on the same trajectory the next trophy Morant adds to his mantle will be the MVP.

Best odds: +1,500 at DraftKings

Favorite futures bet: Lakers Under 46.5 wins

I tend not to put too much stock in preseason results, but the Lakers' recent 118-113 loss to the Timberwolves confirmed all my worst fears about the Purple and Gold. Not only did Los Angeles lose to a JV squad playing without Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns, but it shot just 25% from deep and went 0-16 from beyond the arc during a particularly putrid stretch during the first half.

For all the changes Rob Pelinka made during the offseason, the one thing he failed to address was the team's woefully inadequate 3-point shooting. The Lakers' inability to hit the broadside of a barn cost them a playoff berth a year ago and is poised to deny LeBron James the Hollywood ending he deserves yet again in 2022-23. 

Best odds: -130 at bet365

AJ Salah, Publishing Editor (@Salas42_)

NBA Championship pick: Milwaukee Bucks

There has to be some kind of small-market or recency bias at play here. Milwaukee won the title just 16 months ago, then took what many saw as the NBA’s best team in the 2022 calendar year to Game 7 with its second-best player injured.

After a season where they could develop almost zero rhythm due to injury, it seems like the Deer are being overlooked. Giannis is still probably the best player alive, and they’ll continue to benefit from the continuity and championship experience.

The Bucks are arguably the best two-way team in the NBA when engaged, and tabbing them as the least-likely contender out of the top tier (Boston, Golden State, Clippers, Brooklyn) to win the title is value asking to be taken.

Best odds: +800 at DraftKings

MVP pick: Kawhi Leonard

This price has fallen from +3,000 since my NBA Futures picks piece last week, but there’s still value here when Kawhi’s listed as low as +1,700 at other books.

The logic seems to be rooted in injury uncertainty after Kawhi sat out 2021-22, but this is a guy who clearly prioritizes longevity over getting back in the game. The last time this happened, he put up an All-NBA season, followed by one of the best postseason runs in league history en route to the title in 2019.

Kawhi is BACK ???? pic.twitter.com/7yQezZaOe8

— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) October 4, 2022

A healthy Kawhi is in the very inner discussion of the best in the biz. With no reason to assume he’s regressed, and on a team many are saying is the league’s alpha (Clippers are the current NBA championship odds favorite at several books), he stands to be in the thick of the MVP discussion, especially with "load management" becoming a more widely-adopted practice for title-contending stars.

Best odds: +2,500 at DraftKings

Favorite futures bet: Jalen Green to average 22+ PPG and Rockets to win 24+ regular season games

First off, Jalen Green should probably be a favorite to average 22+ points. He was already on that trajectory at the end of last season, and now gets to compound a summer of strength and skill development with a better feel for the ebbs and flows of an NBA campaign.

To boot, the Rockets will replace former go-to guy Christian Wood with one of the best playmaking centers in the league — Alperen Sengun. Look for Green’s ceiling to be tested with more touches, as his efficiency could continue to improve.

The second component to this two-leg parlay isn’t even juiced. All the Rockets need to do here is beat their projected regular season win total of 23.5 (-115 to the Over as of this writing). Now, obviously, this team is going to be among the NBA’s worst, but with so many franchises incentivized to bottom out this season for a shot at Victor Wembanyama or Scoot Henderson, the climate creates far more winnable games, especially down the stretch.

Self-sabotage isn’t as easy when the team you’re facing is also trying to lose, and the Rockets‘ upside, combined with that league-wide dynamic, could easily equal four more victories than last year’s 20-win effort.

Best odds: +550 at DraftKings

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