Need-to-Know Info: 2021-22 NBA Season Midseason Catchup

With the NBA at its unofficial midway point and football in the books for another year, it seems like a good time to get caught up on what has been going on in the world of NBA betting to this point of the season.

Who has been the best bet so far, who has been the best team to fade? Where is the value in the futures markets and will Joel Embiid run away with the MVP award in the second half of the season? 

We answer all those questions and more in our midseason NBA betting notes breakdown.

Best ATS bets

Memphis Grizzlies (40-20 ATS) 

Not only are the Grizzlies one of the best stories in the NBA this season, but they are also one of its best bets as well. Check that. The best bet, cashing 66.7% of the time. Ja Morant should be getting more love in the MVP market but for now, he’ll take leading the Southwest Division.

The Grizzlies have been a great bet not because of its offense (which is hella fun) but because it also ranks ninth in defensive rating. Plus, the breakout of guys like Desmond Bane has given the Grizz great depth. It will be interesting to see how books adjust to them in the second half.

Oklahoma City Thunder (35-19-4 ATS)

The Thunder have just 18 wins this season but have been cashing for their backers with surprising regularity. The Thunder may be one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA, but they give their all on defense.

Even with a roster this young, they rank ninth in defensive rating and books aren’t respecting that enough because when OKC is getting 8 or more points they are a ridiculous 18-7-2 ATS. As long as they give that effort on defense, they’ll keep giving value as a large dog.

Best ATS fades

Washington Wizards (22-34-2 ATS)

Do you want to know the crazy part about the Wizards being the worst bet in the NBA to this point? It’s that they began the year 9-4 ATS. That means they are just 13-30-2 ATS since.

The offense is obviously hurting with Bradley Beal done for the season. And after a good start under Wes Unseld, the defense has fallen off a cliff, and Kristaps Porzingis certainly won’t help that. Things might get worse before they get better for the Wiz.

Brooklyn Nets (23-34-2 ATS)

This one isn’t too hard to figure out. With the trio of Kevin Durant, James Harden, and half of Kyrie Irving, this was going to be one of the most publicly bet and overvalued teams in the NBA.

And with all three in-and-out of the lineup, it’s no wonder the Nets have had issues covering spreads. But out is Harden and in comes Ben Simmons. Things will improve once KD comes back but this team will still need time to build chemistry and could continue to be a solid fade in the meantime.

Best Over bets

Minnesota Timberwolves (36-23 O/U)

The Timberwolves' explosion on offense may be one of the biggest surprises this season. Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns, and D'Angelo Russell have become a potent trio. So much so, that the only team that ranks ahead of the T-wolves in terms of offensive rating since the start of 2022 is the Phoenix Suns.

Combine that with a middling-at-best defense, (16th defensive rating, 21st scoring defense) and the T-wolves should continue to cash Overs at a solid rate in the second half of the season.

Miami Heat (35-24 O/U)

This one is a bit surprising because when most people think of the Heat, being well-coached and defense usually come to mind. This isn’t any different this season as the team ranks sixth in defensive rating. But they do give up the third-most threes per game in the NBA.

At the same time with the likes of Tyler Herro, Duncan Robinson, and Kyle Lowry, Miami ranks third in 3-point shooting percentage, so they are more likely to be in a shootout than you would think.

Best Under bets 

Dallas Mavericks (20-38-1 O/U)

It feels like the Mavericks have taken on a whole new persona with Jason Kidd as head coach.

The Mavs have become one of the best defensive teams in the NBA ranking fifth in defensive rating, allowing the second-fewest points per game. But what makes them a good Under bet is that the public thinks this is the same offense led by Luka Doncic that was one of the most efficient in the NBA a couple of seasons ago.

While Doncic went into the All-Star break playing well, the Mavs still rank 16th in offensive rating and play at the slowest pace in the league.

Cleveland Cavaliers (22-36 O/U)

The Cavaliers are another great story this season. Led by their twin towers of Jarrett Allen and Rookie of the Year favorite Evan Mobley and guard Darius Garland, the Cavaliers enter the break tied for third in the East.

The Cavs, like most great Under teams, rank fourth in defensive rating and play at a slow tempo on offense, ranking 25th in pace. 

Key injuries to watch

Kevin Durant, Brooklyn Nets: Durant is out until at least the beginning of March while he recovers with a knee injury. The Nets are obviously a threat to win the East if KD is healthy, but it will be interesting to see how this team comes together down the stretch.

Draymond Green, Golden State Warriors: Green has been dealing with a back injury since early January and while the Dubs obviously miss his defense, his absence on offense is arguably more glaring. 

Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers: Tell me if you’ve heard this before. Davis is hurt. It sounds like he’ll be out until at least the end of March with a foot injury. The injury comes at the worst possible time for the Lakers, who will come out of the break in ninth place in the West.

Chris Paul, Phoenix Suns: The big news coming out of All-star weekend was the thumb injury that will have Paul out 6-8 weeks. It’s a huge blow for the Suns. Will they be able to hold off the Warriors and Grizzlies in the standings while Paul recovers?

Midseason best futures bets

Bucks to win the Central Division (+110)

It feels like the Bucks are set up for a nice second-half run. Milwaukee was definitely nursing a bit of a championship hangover at the start of the season but have a .652 winning percentage since a 6-8 start. Plus, have climbed up to ninth in net rating.

They only trail the Bulls by three in the loss column and still have three head-to-head matchups left this season. On top of that, while the Bulls have a stellar offense, they rank 20th in defensive rating and are a ho-hum 11-15 SU against teams with winning records.

Heat to win the NBA Championship (+1,200)

The Nets and Sixers made all the headlines at the trade deadline when they swapped Harden and Simmons. The Nets remained the team with the best odds to win the NBA title out of the East while the Sixers leapfrogged the Bucks and Heat. But from what I’ve seen the Bucks and Heat are the two best teams in the conference. 

So, for my money, the Heat have the best value to win the NBA title. They are capable of defending the best players on the Nets, Sixers, and Bucks and are the best 3-point shooting team of the bunch. Plus, they’re already in first despite dealing with a multitude of injuries of their own.

Luka Doncic to win MVP (+3,000)

Steph Curry is worth a look at +850 considering the Warriors could make a run at the Suns without Chris Paul, but it’s hard to overlook this value.

For starters, the volatility of the MVP market can be a crazy thing. It wasn’t that long ago when Joel Embiid had odds like this. Then he went on a tear for the last two months.

And no one is on a bigger tear at the moment than Doncic. The Mavericks point guard is averaging 35.4 points, 10.3 rebounds, 9.8 assists while shooting 43.3% from 3-point range over his last 10 games.

This award is Embiid’s to lose, but we all know what Doncic is capable of, so why not take a flyer at this value.

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