76ers vs Lakers Picks and Predictions: Embiid Bosses Undermanned Lakers

Joel Embiid just keeps adding to his NBA MVP resume. Last night, the Philadelphia 76ers took punch after punch from the Utah Jazz, who threatened to steal a last-second victory after getting outplayed for 45 minutes. When it came down to crunch time, James Harden set up Embiid for his signature step-back from the midrange to win the game. 

Now instead of a well-deserved rest, Philadelphia flew into LAX last night to take on LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers on Sunday evening. Our NBA picks and predictions for 76ers vs. Lakers on Sunday, January 15 believe that even on a road back-to-back, Philadelphia should outclass Los Angeles.

76ers vs Lakers best odds

76ers vs Lakers picks and predictions

You can count on one hand the number of players in the world who can hang with Joel Embiid one-on-one. One of those players happens to be Anthony Davis, whose absence looms large in Sunday’s matchup as he continues to rehab from a foot injury. The Lakers have had a pretty good stretch recently, but wins against the Heat, Hawks, Kings, and Hornets don’t do much for my confidence in their ability to beat Embiid.

Without Davis, the Lakers’ chances to guard Embiid lie on the shoulders of Thomas Bryant and Damion Jones. Bryant, who has developed wonderful offensive chemistry with both Russell Westbrook and LeBron James, is a significant liability on defense. He’s never been solid on that side of the ball, even during his Washington Wizards tenure prior to tearing his ACL. 

Jones is a fringe NBA guy, who can give the Lakers 15 minutes at best. Both are threats to foul out in the first half if Embiid really puts his mind to it. After that, the team is almost entirely guards. L.A.’s only choice will be to double Embiid on the catch and front him in the post. Those strategies have fared worse and worse against Embiid in recent years, as he’s grown so much as a passer and decision-maker.

Embiid is only one third of the problem for the Lakers. The 76ers, now finally whole, can count on three true needle movers on offense with James Harden and Tyrese Maxey sharing the backcourt. Harden is playing All-Star caliber ball, leading the league in assists, and his patented step-back 3-pointer has been working for him lately. Maxey is a ball of energy, killing opponents on back cuts and smart off-ball work, and has flashed a shockingly improved jump shot to boot. 

As poorly as the Lakers match up against Embiid, their chances to contain either Maxey or Harden, let alone both, are almost as bad. Austin Reaves and Lonnie Walker IV, two of their better perimeter players, are both going to be out for the foreseeable future. Patrick Beverley, who is questionable with an illness, doesn’t have the burst to hang with Maxey and is too foul-prone to slow Harden.

On the face of it, the only reason to hesitate on this spread is that the 76ers are on a back-to-back and had to play every second of last night’s game to close out the Jazz. But the Sixers have proven extremely resilient in back-to-back situations this season. They’re now 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on no rest. 76ers -3.5 is my best bet on the board.

My best bet: 76ers -3.5 (-110 at 888sport)

76ers vs Lakers spread analysis

The Lakers have played with a lot of spirit recently, so this line isn’t as outrageous as it would have been a few weeks ago. They’ve gone 4-2 over their last six games – including their OT loss to the Dallas Mavericks – and have outperformed their spread by +7.8 points per game in that span. They’re also a solid 5-2 ATS in their last seven overall.

But this has come at a cost. LeBron has been incredible, but he’s also looked gassed closing out games recently. He’s been getting blocked at the rim in ways that he never would have before, and his late game go-to shot has been to jack up a 3-pointer despite being down to shooting 28.5% from deep on the season. He’s clearly wearing down.

This is also a massive step up in competition, and their lack of a true defensive center is a fatal flaw that all but removes any serious chance they have to threaten an upset. The 76ers are foul-drawing machines, and they’re fractions of a percentage point behind the Boston Celtics for the league’s fourth-best defense. With De’Anthony Melton and Maxey both firing on all cylinders, they can lean into offense or defense depending on their matchup needs.

Recent history also favors Philadelphia, as they’ve gone 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two teams, and 9-4 ATS in the previous 13 matchups in Los Angeles.

76ers vs Lakers Over/Under analysis

The total for Sunday’s game has settled at 237, a testament to the firepower up and down this Philadelphia team. It also might be a reaction to the Sixers’ strong run of Overs recently. The Over has cashed in a remarkable 10 of the 76ers’ last 11 games, and six of their last seven road tilts.

While pairing Maxey and Harden in the starting backcourt together might prove problematic in the playoffs, they’re simply going to blow the doors off most regular season competition. Even on a back-to-back, I have great confidence in their ability to dissect and attack this Lakers’ defense, because L.A.’s interior presence is so lacking. The Lakers have no credible pick-and-roll defensive bigs, and the 76ers finish more plays with a pick-and-roll roll man than any other team per NBA.com.

Even with the Lakers leaning into more offensive units, and the emergence of the sweet-shooting Bryant, L.A. remains a Bottom-10 offense. They’ve made hay recently by bringing their level of defense to that of the Top-6 team. I’m not banking on their defense being to that level tonight, but I am fairly confident their offense is going to struggle against Philadelphia. If the Lakers have a chance to help push this toward the Over, it will be to attack on the fast break.

76ers vs Lakers betting trend to know

The 76ers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games playing on no rest. Find more NBA betting trends for 76ers vs. Lakers.

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