Anthony Davis makes his postseason debut for the Dallas Mavericks when they visit the Sacramento Kings in tonight’s Play-In Tournament matchup.
The All-Star big man has only played in nine games for Dallas since being traded from L.A. back in February due to injuries and is battling through a sore hip as the Mavs try to advance to the playoffs.
Davis is the focal point of the Dallas offense, but I’m convinced he lives up to oddsmakers expectations when it comes to his points prop. Here are my best NBA picks and Mavericks vs. Kings props on April 16.
Anthony Davis player prop picks
- Best bet
Under 25.5 points
(-110 at bet365) - SGP pick
Under 25.5 points
Over 1.5 blocks
Sabonis 5+ assists
(+350 at bet365)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
Anthony Davis best bet
Anthony Davis Under 25.5 points (-110 at bet365)
Some sportsbooks had this scoring total listed as high as 27.5 points O/U, but the market has taken a hard stand on the Under, and we’re seeing this number dip ahead of Wednesday’s Play-In game.
Even with that adjustment, most player projections for Anthony Davis call for plenty of headroom for the Under. Those models range from 20.4 points to 26.4, with the bulk coming in below this 25.5-point total.
Looking at AD’s limited work for the Dallas Mavericks, he’s scored 26 points or more in just three of those nine outings. Granted, his floor time was checked to an average of 31 minutes over those showings due to injuries and he does enter this game with a nagging hip adductor.
With this round of the Play-In Tournament being an elimination game (the winner advancing to play Memphis for the No. 8 seed), the intensity will be turned up, and that's reflected in the low game total of 215.5 points. That number is far shorter than most Over/Under totals set for the Mavs’ recent contests, especially those in which Davis was active.
His scoring props ranged between 18.5 and 26.5 (vs. Lakers) in his last eight outings, going 3-5 O/U against those props. Considering the circumstances, his points prop of 25.5 O/U against the Sacramento Kings seems like a stretch.
The Kings aren’t among the defensive elite, but they stiffen up in areas where Davis produces his points. Sacramento does a solid job protecting the paint, allowing 47.4 PITP (ninth fewest), and allows the third fewest offensive rebounds (10.0), which means just 13.1 second-chance points from opponents.
As mentioned, AD will be the biggest weapon on the floor for Dallas (after losing Kyrie Irving for the season), and that means he’ll also be the focal point of this Kings defence. Sacramento can game plan on doubling Davis and putting the scoring load on an inconsistent supporting cast. This Mavericks offense hasn’t been the same since that blockbuster deal, dropping from No. 7 in offensive rating to 23rd since Davis made his Dallas debut on February 8.
My projection isn’t as low as some other forecasts for Davis, coming out around 23.6 points tonight. The Under 25.5 points should be priced around -170 rather than the -110 available at bet365.
Anthony Davis same-game parlay
Anthony Davis Under 25.5 points
Anthony Davis Over 1.5 blocks
Domantas Sabonis 5+ assists
AD is battling a sore hip in just his 10th game with Dallas. Given player projections, 25.5 is a big ask considering the competition and low game total.
Davis can impact the game on both ends, and player forecasts call for two blocks. He’s swatted 2+ shots in four of his nine games with the Mavs.
Sabonis is the center of the Kings' offense and is expected to dish out more than five dimes tonight. He's recorded 5+ assists in six of his last seven games.
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