The Miami Heat are back on the road again trying to punch their ticket to the NBA Playoffs. After knocking off the Bulls in Chicago on Wednesday, Miami now visits the Atlanta Hawks for the final Play-In Tournament tilt Friday night.
With a tight turnaround and travel, the Heat will rely on their bench to contribute. Reserve Kyle Anderson has been putting in quality minutes off the pine, and my Heat vs. Hawks predictions and NBA picks expect him to keep making plays tonight.
Who will win Heat vs Hawks?
Oddsmakers are calling for a close game, with Atlanta pegged as a slight home favorite. These teams split their four regular-season meetings, and while Miami must travel for a second straight game on a tight turnaround, I like the Heat to win and advance as the No. 8 seed.
Heat vs Hawks prediction
My best bet: Kyle Anderson Over 2.5 assists (-115 at bet365)
My analysis
Kyle Anderson came to South Beach as part of the Jimmy Butler trade and has gradually found his place in the Miami Heat’s new-look rotation.
The small forward was logging only 13 minutes per game in the first five months of the schedule, including his first month in Miami. That floor time has jumped to 20.5 minutes since March, including 23 minutes of playing time in Wednesday’s Play-In game.
With that increase in run, Anderson’s output naturally took off. And while his scoring comes and goes, he’s been most effective as a playmaker.
Heat head coach Erik Spoelstra quickly recognized Anderson’s control and composure with the ball in his hands and uses the 6-foot-9 veteran as a “point forward” coming off the bench. Anderson is averaging more than three assists per game since March, with advanced metrics showing 5.3 potential assists per outing.
“Some of these cool, different actions that we’re getting to with whatever percentage of our upset, Kyle was kind of spear-heading a lot of that. I’m grateful that we have Kyle,” Spoelstra told the media.
Anderson’s passing prowess is peaking over the past six showings. He’s recorded assist totals of three, six, one, six, four, and five in that stretch, with his potential assists spiking to an average of 7.2 per game.
He’s gone Over his assist prop total in four of those five games, including topping Wednesday’s number of 1.5 O/U with five helpers off seven potential assists in the win at Chicago.
Anderson has faced the Atlanta Hawks three times as a member of the Heat. Two of those games came in back-to-back clashes in February, shortly after he arrived in Miami. He had two assists in 28 minutes, followed by only six minutes of action and zero dimes the following game. However, in his most recent run-in with Atlanta, with Anderson integrated into the rotation, he handed out four helpers in just 18 minutes on March 27.
This Hawks defense does have a soft spot for ball movement, sitting 21st in opponent assist-to-FGM ratio (.650), which adds up to 28.2 average assists allowed (seventh most in the NBA).
Player projections for Anderson range from 3.3 to 3.5 assists, given his average of 25 minutes per game since settling into his reserve role. My number sits just north of 3.5 dimes from Anderson, which should have the Over 2.5 priced closer to -200.
Heat vs Hawks same-game parlay
Kyle Anderson 3+ assists
Tyler Herro 3+ threes
Trae Young 25+ points
Kyle Anderson has become a vital sub for Miami and is projected for more than three dimes Friday.
Tyler Herro knocked down three triples versus Chicago and hit four three-pointers in three of his four matchups with Atlanta this season.
Trae Young scored 28 points in the Play-In loss at Orlando and was tossed from the game. He’s out for redemption and pegged for at least 25 points Friday.
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Heat vs Hawks odds
Heat vs Hawks live odds
Heat vs Hawks opening odds
- Spread: Miami +1 (-115) | Atlanta -1 (-105)
- Moneyline: Miami -110 | Atlanta -110
- Over/Under: Over 219 (-110) | Under 219 (-110)
Odds courtesy of bet365.
Heat vs Hawks spread and Over/Under analysis
- Atlanta opened as a 1-point home favorite, and this spread has bounced back and forth between Hawks -1 and +1, with the current spread favoring the home side.
- The Over/Under total hit the board at 222.5 points, and Under money has chipped away at this number, bringing it down to 220.5 O/U.
- According to Covers Consensus, 53% of picks are siding with the Heat as short underdogs, while 67% of total picks are betting the Over.
Heat vs Hawks trend
The Heat have gone 11-8 Over/Under in their last 19 games and finished 3-1 O/U in their four matchups with the Hawks this season. Find more NBA betting trends for Heat vs. Hawks.
How to watch Heat vs Hawks
| Location | State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA |
| Date | Friday, 4-18-2025 |
| Tip-off | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT |
Heat vs Hawks latest injuries
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