The New York Mets host the Philadelphia Phillies in an NL East showdown at Citi Field on Monday, April 21.
Both lineups pack plenty of punch, and New York star Juan Soto headlines my Phillies vs. Mets predictions and MLB picks for tonight’s divisional clash.
Phillies vs Mets prediction
My Phillies vs Mets best bet: Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases (+133 at Caesars)
Juan Soto, in his first year with the New York Mets, is sporting a ho-hum .206 batting average, .733 OPS, and .315 wOBA against righties to start the season, but he’s been anything but ho-hum to this point in his illustrious career.
The five-time Silver Slugger posted elite .291, .993, and .417 marks against right-handed arms through his first nine seasons, and he isn’t facing an intimidating pitching matchup Monday night.
Philadelphia Phillies starter Aaron Nola’s velocity is down across the board, and his pitch values are also down on his four most frequent offerings. He’s served up a .939 OPS and .410 wOBA to lefty bats to start the year, too.
Soto is also coming off consecutive multi-hit games and is 9-for-35 with five extra-base hits and a 1.051 OPS across 50 plate appearances against Nola, so there’s plenty of familiarity between the two.
Caesars QuickPick: Our Phillies vs Mets same-game parlay (SGP)
Juan Soto Over 1.5 total bases
Pete Alonso Over 1.5 total bases
Over 8
Mets first basemen Pete Alonso doesn’t have the traditional platoon advantage against Nola, and the Phillies righty has been slightly more efficient against right-handed hitters allowing a .790 OPS and .348 wOBA.
Still, Alonso sports a 1.050 OPS with five home runs and five more doubles against Nola across 54 plate appearances, so there’s oodles of familiarity. Plus, Alonso doesn’t have drastic splits against righties and lefties. He mashes both.
After doubling down on Nola’s struggles, Mets starter Tylor Megill has a splash of statistical correction coming his way, and the Philly lineup can put crooked numbers on the scoreboard in bunches.
The Phillies sport a respectable .321 wOBA against righties, but their .337 on-base percentage is tied for fourth. Additionally, Philadelphia ranks 19th in ISO, which is likely unsustainably low given the pop in the lineup. A similar Philly lineup ranked sixth last year, after all.
Returning to Megill, his tidy .140 ERA is way below his 3.40 xFIP, and he’s yet to surrender a home run.
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Phillies vs Mets odds
Phillies vs Mets live odds
Phillies vs Mets opening odds
- Moneyline: Philadelphia +100 | New York -120
- Run line: Philadelphia +1.5 (-205) | New York +1.5 (+170)
- Over/Under: Over 8 | Under 8
Odds courtesy of Caesars.
Phillies vs Mets trend
The Phillies have cashed the Over in 46 of their last 86 away games (+5.10 units / 5% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Phillies vs. Mets.
How to watch Phillies vs Mets and game info
| Location | Citi Field, Flushing, NY |
| Date | Monday, 4-21-2025 |
| First pitch | 7:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBCS-Philadelphia, SNY |
| Phillies starting pitcher | Aaron Nola (0-4, 6.65 ERA) |
| Mets starting pitcher | Tylor Megill (2-2, 1.40 ERA) |
Phillies vs Mets latest injuries
Phillies vs Mets weather
Not intended for use in MA.
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