It's a full MLB slate on Tuesday, and that means 30 starting pitchers to fade or back.
Whether you are betting on strikeouts, hits/walks allowed, or outs recorded, there are plenty of opportunities to make some money tonight.
These are my favorite MLB pitcher props for Tuesday, April 22.
Josh's best starting pitcher props for April 22
Flaherty o5.5 strikeouts (-105 at bet365)
Bubic o1.5 walks allowed (+115 at bet365)
Hicks u16.5 outs (-110 at bet365)
Today's SP best bets
Padres at Tigers
The angle: San Diego is being priced as a low K% team but has injuries to key low-K% batters
The move: Jack Flaherty Over 5.5 strikeouts (-105 at bet365)
Jack Flaherty is 2-2 O/U on this prop this year, but 2-0 to the Over in Detroit. In those two starts at Comerica Park, he has 16 punchouts over 11+ innings vs. the New York Yankees and Chicago White Sox.
Today, his K prop is low because, on paper, he is facing the team with the lowest K% in baseball, the San Diego Padres. That matchup is always heavily priced in. However, the Padres are without Luis Arraez and Jackson Merrill. Arraez has a 2.1% K% rate on the season which is absurd while Merrill's is at 17.1%. Those are big reasons why the team's K% tops the league.
Jack Flaherty is a guy who can rack 'em up, too. In his two home starts, he struck out nine and seven batters. He can go one per inning today and still get the Over, which has just five cents of tax. He projects for 6.12 Ks today, per THE BAT.
Rockies vs. Royals
The angle: Kris Bubic's numbers are great and he faces the Rockies, but his command isn't elite
The move: Kris Bubic Over 1.5 walks allowed (+115 at bet365)
Kansas City Royals pitcher Kris Bubic is having a great year. He's allowed just five earned runs over 24 innings with three quality starts. He also gets to face the Colorado Rockies, which is an easy ask. However, he is going to see a lot of batters and projects for 17 outs, but at plus money for two walks, which he has done in three of four starts, it is a good price to hit.
His command is nothing special. Over his 379 innings in the MLB, he has 160 free passes. That works out to 2.53 walks per six innings. The Rockies walk at a lower rate than other teams, but even a matchup adjustment doesn't put this into no-bet territory. THE BAT is projecting 1.71 walks on 7 outs, but that could be a conservative leash. There is room for this number to be higher than lower, and a buy to EV.
Brewers vs. Giants
The angle: Jordan Hicks is coming off 105-pitch outing and has allowed 15 runs over his last three starts
The move: Jordan Hicks Under 16.5 outs (-110 at bet365)
This is what I like to call reverse engineering a bet. Jordan Hicks is coming off a 105-pitch outing which is a heavy workload for a guy who has never thrown more than 109 innings in a season. His leash could be shorter today because of the last outing, but it also might be abbreviated because of the form. He has an 8.27 ERA over those three starts with a 1.71 WHIP with eight walks over 16 innings. He could get hit hard, but he might not have a 95-pitch leash to work with.
It's tough to hit his Over earned runs and hits against, while his walks allowed market is at 2.5. That has me betting the Under 16.5 outs recorded at -110. THE BAT is projecting just over 15 outs, and after the Tylor Megill loss by the hook yesterday, I'm happy to get another out above 15.5.
He's been bad, and his leash could be shorter today because of the workload.
Not intended for use in MA.
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