The Cleveland Guardians and New York Yankees will continue a series this evening in Ohio.
The Guardians did the job last night via strong power-hitting and extended their win streak to four games. They've scored at least five runs in three of those four wins, and my Yankees vs. Guardians predictions and MLB picks think they can stay hot tonight as the Yankees send a suspect starter to the mound on Tuesday, April 22.
Yankees vs Guardians prediction
My Yankees vs Guardians best bet: Guardians team total Over 3.5 (-140 at DraftKings)
The first time I wrote about Yankees starting pitcher Will Warren this season, I wrote the following:
"Will Warren grabs the mound for the New York Yankees and has started this season quite shaky — a continuation of what we saw last season. A barrel and a hard hit rate set in the Bottom 20% of baseball looms quite large".
Not much has changed since then, and it's led me to my best bet here of the Cleveland Guardians, which is to score at least four runs.
Will Warren get better? You'd think so. He's been a consensus, highly regarded pipeline prospect for New York for a while, and those things typically have a good historical pedigree. In addition, he can build on some positive signs with his swing-and-miss stuff. However, the Guardians are not a team from which you'd expect that improvement.
Over the past two seasons, no team in baseball has had a lower strikeout rate in the majors than the Guardians at 19%. That number has rose in 2025, and the whiff rate followed, but positive regression will occur swiftly; at least, there's more reason to expect than not. The core of this Cleveland team hasn't changed much, and good at-bats have been thoroughly ingrained in the franchise's DNA for multiple years. In other words, a start with more swings and misses than usual seems more of an anomaly than anything else.
With that in mind, Warren's hard-hit issues should again be targeted. There's enough power during the lineup between Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana, and others to attack this. You don't always think of overwhelming power when you think of the Guardians, but plenty's still here. But generally speaking, this is a fade of Warren. He will struggle against any decent-hitting team until he can harness his swing and miss stuff more. That holds much more strongly against a team like Cleveland, which has been the foundational pillar of putting the ball in play over the last few seasons.
Getting the opportunity to get this full game total at below 4.5 is just too much to pass up because even if Warren doesn't give them all up, we'll have the opportunity to get a few late against closer Devin Williams. He's looked anything like a strong closer lately, with some very shaky performances and a 2.25 WHIP. I made this number a run higher and would play it to -166.
Yankees vs Guardians same-game parlay (SGP)
Guardians team total Over 3.5
Will Warren Under 4.5 strikeouts
Aaron Judge 1+ home run
Considering that the Guardians' elevated whiff rate (compared to what they've been the past few years) is an anomaly, we are taking the Under on Warren's strikeouts.
There's plenty to like here beyond just that, chiefly that I'm not expecting Warren to go deep into this game. He's gone over just 90 pitches in one start this season, and that game was against the San Francisco Giants, who strikeout at the 7th highest clip in the league.
The big boost to the end of our same-game parlay is backing Aaron Judge to go yard. He'll see a pitcher in Tanner Bibee with a barrel rate issue and heavy fastball pitching arsenal tonight — a perfect matchup. We think he snaps a five game homerless streak.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Yankees vs Guardians odds
Yankees vs Guardians live odds
Yankees vs Guardians opening odds
- Moneyline: New York -104 | Cleveland +101
- Run line: New York -1.5 (+138) | Cleveland +1.5 (-166)
- Over/Under: Over 8.5 | Under 8.5
Yankees vs Guardians trend
The Yankees have hit the F5 team total Under in 7 of their last 9 away games (+4.65 Units / 40% ROI). Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs. Guardians.
How to watch Yankees vs Guardians and game info
| Location | Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH |
| Date | Tuesday, 4-22-2025 |
| First pitch | 6:10 p.m. ET |
| TV | YES, CLEG |
| Yankees starting pitcher | Will Warren (1-0, 5.17 ERA) |
| Guardians starting pitcher | Tanner Bibee (1-2, 5.85 ERA) |
Yankees vs Guardians latest injuries
Yankees vs Guardians weather
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