Four more NBA first-round playoff series get underway Sunday, with the top seeds in each conference among those taking the floor. Covers checks in on where the action is with Scott Shelton, sportsbook supervisor at The Mirage on the Las Vegas Strip, and Scott Cooley, odds consultant for offshore sportsbook Bookmaker.eu.
No. 5 Atlanta Hawks vs. No. 4 Washington Wizards – Open: -5; Move: None
John Wall and the Wizards went 49-33 SU (42-39-1 ATS) to earn home-court advantage for the first round, but finished the regular season in a 3-5 SU and ATS rut. Washington capped the regular season with a 110-102 loss at Miami catching 11.5 points, resting players in a meaningless game, as the Wizards finished six games clear of Atlanta for the No. 4 seed.
The Hawks (43-39 SU, 39-43 ATS) won and covered four in row over the final week, including both ends of a home-and-home with defending champion Cleveland. That allowed Atlanta to fend off Milwaukee and Indiana in the race for the fifth seed. The Hawks were able to rest players in their Wednesday finale, losing to Indiana 104-86 as a hefty 15-point underdog.
“The total is the story here, and being consistent with the Saturday games, the smart players are looking for the under,” Cooley said, noting the total opened at 212 and dropped to 208 by late Saturday night. “On the total, we have almost 70 percent of the tickets and more than 75 percent of the money on the under. As far as the side, the public likes Washington.”
Shelton said there had been no movement on the line at The Mirage and other MGM Resorts books, which also pegged the Wizards -5 for the 1 p.m. ET tipoff. The total opened at 211.5 and was down a point to 210.5.
Washington went 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS against Atlanta in the regular season.
No. 8 Portland Trail Blazers at No. 1 Golden State Warriors – Open: -14; Move: -15
Golden State begins its trek toward a potential third straight NBA Finals appearance, surely wanting to wipe out the taste of blowing a 3-1 series lead against Cleveland in last year’s championship series. The Warriors (67-15 SU, 40-39-3 ATS) went 15-1 SU and 12-3-1 ATS over their last 16 games. Perhaps as important, a healthy Kevin Durant returned to the lineup after missing five weeks.
Portland (41-41 SU, 40-42 ATS) needed a strong finishing kick to land the final spot in the West, going 9-3 SU (10-2 ATS) over the final dozen games. The run included a 99-98 home win over San Antonio as a 10.5-point underdog in the Blazers’ penultimate game.
The Mirage went from Warriors -14 to -15 on Friday, where the line remains. The total is getting a little interest as well.
“They’re playing the under,” Shelton said of action on this 3:30 p.m. ET matchup. “We’re still at 222.5, which is where we opened, but the under is at -130. That’s all sharp play.”
Bookmaker.eu also opened Golden State -14, then moved to 14.5, and the total has seen a sizable shift, from 222 to 219.5.
“Our smart plays have been on the under and Golden State, but they are small, and the side could flip Sunday,” Cooley said. “We don’t anticipate the spread climbing any higher, and it will likely drop back to the opener at some point. We have almost 60 percent of the money on the Warriors.”
Golden State went 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS against Portland in the regular season.
No. 8 Chicago Bulls at No. 1 Boston Celtics – Open: -7.5; Move: -6
Cleveland is certainly the favorite to repeat as conference champion, but Boston is the team guaranteed home-court advantage for as long as it sticks around in the East. The Celtics (53-29 SU, 40-40-2 ATS) won their last three games and five of their last seven to nab the No. 1 seed, capping the season with a 112-94 rout of resting Milwaukee as a 13.5-point home chalk Wednesday.
Chicago (41-41 SU, 42-40 ATS) had to win its regular-season finale – and in fact, seven of its last nine – to emerge with the final spot in the East. The Bulls boatraced Brooklyn 112-73 Wednesday as a 15-point fave and finished tied with Miami, edging the Heat for the No. 8 seed on the tiebreaker.
Boston enters this game under tragic circumstances, after news Saturday evening that star point guard Isaiah Thomas’ sister was killed in a car accident.
“There was a flurry of activity on that game,” Shelton said, noting some sharp play occurred as the news broke, quickly dropping the line from Boston -7.5 to -6.5 and later to -6. “It was all Chicago money.”
Bookmaker.eu went straight from 7.5 to 6 for this 6:30 p.m. ET tip.
“It’s no coincidence that the movement for the Bulls has coincided with the death of Thomas' sister,” Cooley said. “It’s a greatly tragic situation, but something that bettors react to.”
Cooley said the Bulls were drawing sharp action before the news, and more sharp money followed Saturday evening. Boston and Chicago split their four regular-season meetings SU and ATS, with the home team winning and cashing each time.
No. 6 Oklahoma City Thunder at No. 3 Houston Rockets – Open: -7; Move: -7.5; Move: -7
This might be the most compelling first-round matchup, with leading MVP candidates Russell Westbrook and James Harden going toe-to-toe. Westbrook averaged a triple-double this season for Houston, putting up a league-leading 31.6 ppg to go with 10.7 rpg and 10.4 apg. The Thunder (47-35 SU, 45-36-1 ATS), who lost Kevin Durant to Golden State in the offseason, went on a late 4-1 SU and ATS run before losing a meaningless finale, 111-105 to Denver as a 6-point favorite.
Harden is averaging 29.1 ppg and 11.2 apg, while adding 8.1 rpg for good measure. The Rockets (55-27 SU, 42-40 ATS) ended up with the third-best record in the league, trailing only fellow Western Conference squads Golden State and San Antonio. However, Houston enters the playoffs in a lengthy ATS slump, having dumped nine in a row against the oddsmakers.
Bookmaker.eu has been steady at Rockets -7, save for a few hours early Friday morning.
“We’ve had some professional bettors on both sides of this one, but nothing too outrageous,” Cooley said. “The ticket and money action is very even up to this point. We do expect to see more OKC money than Houston money Sunday.”
Shelton said this 9 p.m. Eastern tip hadn’t seen much action yet at The Mirage, where the line was still on its opener of Rockets -7.5. Houston went 3-1 SU and ATS against Oklahoma City in the regular season.
Patrick Everson is a Las Vegas-based senior writer for Covers. Follow him on Twitter: @Covers_Vegas.
Bettors fading Celtics after tragic death of Thomas' sister
“It’s no coincidence that the movement for the Bulls has coincided with the death of Thomas' sister. It’s a greatly tragic situation, but something that bettors react to.”
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