2024-25 Boston Celtics Predictions, Odds and Betting Preview: Tatum's Revenge Tour

We're taking an in-depth look at the futures odds for the defending NBA Champion Boston Celtics to see if there are any NBA picks worth betting on before they begin their title defense.

It was a busy offseason for the Celtics — not in terms of roster moves, but due to pure drama. Jaylen Brown was left off the Olympic Men's Basketball team, and while Jayson Tatum, Jrue Holiday, and Derrick White all won gold medals, Tatum became a meme courtesy of Steve Kerr. 

As the Celtics aim to win back-to-back titles, let's take a closer look at NBA odds, and specifically the Boston Celtics odds, for the 2024-25 season.

2024-25 Boston Celtics odds and outlook

All odds courtesy of FanDuel, as of 10-16.

Boston Celtics projected lineup

Boston Celtics season win total prediction

The Boston Celtics are the defending NBA champions, won 64 games last season, and are arguably the best team in the NBA once again. That being said, I actually favor the Under on their win total. 

The Celtics will begin the season without Kristaps Porzingis, who is recovering from foot surgery and isn’t expected back until December. However, it's not Porzingis' injury that has me leaning toward the Under, but also that I think the Celtics will be cautious about protecting the health of all their starters after a very long summer. 

Winning the NBA Finals means they were one of only two teams still playing deep into June, cutting their offseason short, and three of their starters also played in the Olympics.

For these Celtics players, there wasn’t much of an offseason, and the focus is on winning another NBA Championship, not securing the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. I fully expect the Celtics to reduce starters' minutes and utilize load management whenever possible. For that reason, I like the Under on such a high total of 58.5 wins.

Prediction: Under 58.5 (-110 at DraftKings)

Celtics playoff prediction

The Celtics are going to make the NBA playoffs and be one of the top seeds, but I wouldn’t bet on the -10000 price point. 

In my New York Knicks team preview, I talked about an alternative angle of betting on the Knicks to be the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, rather than laying the heavily juiced price for them to make the playoffs. The Celtics are in a similar position, where we could explore a different angle instead of taking the -10000 to make the playoffs.

However, as I broke down in their win total, I don't think they’ll push for the No. 1 seed. Joe Mazzulla mentioned on JJ Redick’s podcast that one of his biggest mistakes in his first season coaching the Celtics was obsessing over getting the No. 1 seed, and he now believes it's not as valuable as it might seem. 

So, when you see a -110 price point on the Celtics to be the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference, even though they’re capable, that’s not a price I’m interested in backing either. The Celtics will make the playoffs, but when you consider the pricing tied to their futures and the fact that I favor the Under on their win total, there isn’t a bet here that compels me to jump in.

Prediction: Yes (-10000 at DraftKings)

Jayson Tatum prediction

Has any NBA superstar ever won an NBA Championship and a gold medal in the same year, only to see their superstar narrative take a hit because of it? Jayson Tatum was long considered the best player on the Celtics, but after an underwhelming NBA Finals performance by his standards — where Jaylen Brown won Finals MVP — and being benched on the USA Basketball team at the Olympics, which turned him into a meme on social media, Tatum might be on a revenge tour. 

His points-per-game total is set at 26.7 at DraftKings, and I favor the Over. Tatum barely exceeded this number last season, averaging 26.9 points per game, but he was well over it the year before, averaging 30.1. 

No one should be more motivated than Tatum coming into this season. Throughout the NBA Playoffs and the Olympics, Tatum struggled with his 3-point shooting, and he reportedly worked on his jumper to fix a mechanical issue after returning from Paris.

Tatum has always been elite at driving to the basket, and if his 3-point shooting even slightly improves, he should be able to surpass 26.7 points per game, particularly with projections already having him averaging 27.9.

Prediction: Over 26.7 PPG (-115 at DraftKings)

Celtics awards futures prediction

If you're looking to back a Celtics player in awards futures markets, look no further than Payton Pritchard for Sixth Man of the Year. Yes, you read that correctly — Pritchard for Sixth Man of the Year. 

The Celtics are filled with superstar talent, but I believe Pritchard offers the best awards bet due to our running narrative. The Celtics will likely reduce the minutes of several starters as they focus on another deep playoff run, which could lead to increased playing time for Pritchard. 

Whenever Pritchard gets more minutes, he consistently delivers offensively, and this award is heavily based on points per game as a role player. Last season, Pritchard started five games for the Celtics and averaged 24.6 points, showing that with more minutes, he can fill up the box score. 

Earlier in the offseason on 'Before You Bet,' we discussed this bet when Pritchard was trading at +10000. Now, the best price is +6000, so we're clearly not the only ones who believe Pritchard can make a run at this award.

Prediction: Payton Pritchard to win Sixth Man of the Year (+6000 at FanDuel)

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