It’s an ABC matinee between the Milwaukee Bucks and the Miami Heat on Saturday, January 14. These teams have built up plenty of bad blood over multiple playoff series in the past few seasons and are coming off a tight run contest against each other just two days ago.
The Heat won that game 108-102 and with Giannis set to remain out for today’s game, the Bucks will have a hard time getting a measure of revenge against their Eastern Conference rivals.
Our NBA picks and predictions for Bucks vs. Heat believe that Milwaukee’s defensive discipline should continue to make life difficult for Jimmy Butler.
Bucks vs Heat best odds
Bucks vs Heat picks and predictions
At the NBA level, bringing supreme effort night in and night out is in itself a talent. It’s a talent that the two superstars squaring off against each other tonight, Jimmy Butler and Giannis Antetokounmpo, happen to share. But, there are limitations on greatness founded on effort, particularly when you don’t possess one of the ten best collections of physical traits for a basketball player ever — like Giannis happens to.
Butler has squeezed a lot from a little. Hell, he might have worked his way into a Hall of Fame career after being taken with the 30th overall pick. His game is all craft, physicality, and effort.
At 33, he’s having the most efficient season of his career, but it’s not because he’s shooting at an amazing clip. In fact, Butler, like most years, is shooting below league average from 3-point range and just a middling 63% at the rim. He’s also not breaking the system by scorching drop defenses with midrange pull-ups, like Kevin Durant, either.
No, Butler’s offensive game is instead founded completely on his ability to get fouled. He’s become the best foul drawing forward in the entire NBA. Butler draws a call on a remarkable 22% of his shooting possessions, per Cleaning the Glass.
Butler is averaging 25 points per game over his last five and, on average, he’s earned 10 of them at the stripe (including an absurd 23-23 performance at the line against the Thunder). It’s incredible how every team knows that this is his game and yet, in a Harden-like fashion, they’re powerless to stop him.
There are limitations, like with tonight’s matchup against the Bucks. Familiarity breeds contempt, and it also solidifies defensive routines. Butler has been one of the great tactical focuses of the Bucks ever since the Heat upset the Bucks in the bubble.
Butler got the better of the Bucks in that series and the Bucks have made it their purpose in life to slow him down in every matchup since.
When they faced off again in 2021, they held Butler to 29.7% from the field and, crucially, just 22 free throw attempts over the four-game sweep. In three of those games he only attempted four free throws total. They completely shut him down.
The Bucks have had their ups and downs this season, but they remain the most disciplined team in the NBA. They foul just 18.4 times on average per contest, the lowest such mark in the NBA. They’ve been especially solid recently, having only committed 14.3 fouls over their last three games.
Even without Giannis available to bolster Milwaukee’s rim protection, the Bucks held Butler to 17 points on Thursday. I’m expecting the Bucks’ discipline and league-best interior defense to make things very hard on Butler again on Saturday.
My best bet: Jimmy Butler Under 20.5 points (-125)
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Bucks vs Heat spread analysis
The Bucks started this season 9-0 but have since been barely above .500. Their offense has recently gone from Bottom-10 bad to Bottom-3 bad but they’re in every game because they grind opponents down with defense and then Giannis gives them a shot to win.
They’ve been pretty healthy, other than the ongoing absence of Khris Middleton, so it’s disappointing that they haven’t found a more successful style of play in the halfcourt without him.
Still, the former champs are nothing if not resilient, represented by their 8-3 record against the spread following an ATS loss, as well as their 7-3 ATS record in their last 10 games following a straight-up loss.
The Heat, meanwhile, have been dealing with injuries at every stage of the season. Today they might be missing Tyler Herro in addition to Kyle Lowry but they keep pulling rotation players like Orlando Robinson out of thin air. Miami started the season miserable against the spread but has turned a corner recently. It’s 4-1 ATS in its last five at home, and even better against quality opponents.
If there’s one particularly troubling trend for Milwaukee, it’s that while the Bucks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against teams with a winning record, the Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last six against winning teams. I like Miami to cover.
Bucks vs Heat Over/Under analysis
The discourse dominating NBA airwaves over the last month or so has been concerned with the explosion of scoring in the NBA this season. Counting Damian Lillard’s 50-point game on Thursday night, 11 players have now scored 50 points or more this season, by far the most ever at this mark of the season.
Seemingly every night fans, are treated to record-breaking offense, but that won’t be the discussion following this game.
The Bucks and the Heat are mirror images of each other, and they take more after the 90s era Pat Riley New York Knicks than they do Mike D’Antoni’s Phoenix Suns. These are bruising teams that win basketball games the same way battles in WW1 were won: by attrition.
The Bucks rank second on defense and 24th on offense, while the Heat rank sixth on defense and 23rd on offense. Even though oddsmakers know this, they’ve consistently overestimated the offensive potential of these two teams recently. The Under is 4-1 in the Bucks’ last five and 5-1 in the Heat’s last six.
They totaled just 210 in their matchup on Thursday, and the line tonight is nearly 10 points higher at 219.5. There’s potential for them to go much lower. The Bucks typically struggle shooting on the road, which is in part why the Under is 20-7 in the Bucks’ last 27 road games. In their matchup on Thursday however, they hit 38.6% of their threes. If those dry up, they might have trouble hitting the century mark.
Bucks vs Heat betting trend to know
Under is 20-7 in the Bucks’ last 27 road games. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Heat.
Bucks vs Heat game info
| Location: | FTX Arena, Miami, FL |
| Date: | Saturday, January 14, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ABC |
