The Milwaukee Bucks may have dropped their most recent game to the LA Clippers, but they’ve maintained an excellent level on the defensive side of the ball this month and have a great chance to regain their form against a flat Utah Jazz team on Monday.
With sources of optimism hard to find for Utah, we’ll explain in our Bucks vs Jazz predictions why injuries — and a failing defense — should ultimately help Milwaukee to a convincing bounce-back win.
Let’s dig into some NBA player props and hand out some NBA picks on Monday, January 27.
Bucks vs Jazz prediction
My best bet
Bucks -9.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Utah Jazz are set to return Jordan Clarkson to the lineup on Monday after a nearly month-long absence, but that’s where the good news ends. Walker Kessler will be forced out of the lineup here after injuring his shoulder last game, something that could be the death blow to this frontcourt.
Utah is already without John Collins, Taylor Hendricks, and Johnny Juzang, forcing them to recall Oscar Tshiebwe from the G-League. It will be down to just Tshiebwe, rookie Kyle Filipowski, and Drew Eubanks down low, and a defense that has ranked in the bottom five over the last two weeks with declining performance inside will only grow weaker.
The Milwaukee Bucks grade out as the best team in the league down low over the last two weeks, cashing in on over 81% of looks at the rim, and while it has taken the majority of its shots from the mid-range that shouldn’t be a problem against the league’s worst mid-range defense over this span according to Cleaning the Glass.
It’s not as if the Bucks are at full health, either, but while Bobby Portis will be missing in action here there’s a good chance either or both of AJ Green and Khris Middleton suit up here. Given the way they’ve scored the ball in these areas, and overall with the second-best offense in the last 14 days, it’s hard to see Milwaukee slowing down here.
Utah, meanwhile, will need to find a way in while shorthanded against a menacing Bucks defense. In an ironic twist, they’ve ranked top three in the last two weeks in all shooting zones except the rim — where they’ve given up the second-highest field goal percentage in the league. Utah’s rim scoring has been the only positive consistently, but now it’s without almost its entire frontcourt.
The Bucks have also been a bit vulnerable in the long mid-range, but Utah has been in the bottom 10 in both shot frequency and accuracy from that area. I don’t anticipate the Jazz finding any source of offense here, and with many big rebounders on the sideline, Milwaukee should take firm control.
Bucks vs Jazz same-game parlay
Bucks -9.5
Collin Sexton 20+ points
Khris Middleton Over 13.5 points
30% boost available
We’ll stick with the trends we laid out above, and seek out the players here on either side who should not only draw the best matchups but can devastate from the areas of concern for each defense.
Starting off, Collin Sexton has now scored 20 or more in six of his last seven games and is one of the few players remaining on the floor who can get to the rim. We know that’s where the Bucks have had issues, ranking second-worst in field goal percentage, and Sexton has taken 24% of his shots from that area which is well above average for a combo guard while mixing in 36% in the short mid-range.
Sexton will draw the declining defense of Damian Lillard, too, who is nearly in the bottom 40% of the league now in Estimated Plus Minus, setting things up nicely for another big game.
Then, as we look to lean on the mid-range against a defense that hates to see those shots going up, we’ll back Middleton – assuming he plays. He will ironically be guarded by Sexton, who is in the bottom 5% of the league defensively, though if he slides over to shooting guard he won’t be met with any more resistance against rookie Isaiah Collier or Clarkson, who are in the bottom 10%.
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Bucks vs Jazz odds
Bucks vs Jazz live odds
Bucks vs Jazz opening odds
- Spread: Milwaukee -9 | Utah +9
- Moneyline: Milwaukee -380 | Utah +290
- Over/Under: Over 233.5 | Under 233.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Bucks vs Jazz spread and Over/Under analysis
- After dropping to 8.5 points upon opening, the line has moved twice in favor of the Bucks and made its way to 9.5 on Monday afternoon.
- The Bucks make up 71% of the spread tickets and 90% of the handle.
- The total has steadily climbed with no resistance, though since reaching 236 overnight it’s only jumped one point Monday and seems settled at 237.
- The Over has accounted for 90% of the handle wagered on the total despite taking on just 52% of the bets.
Bucks vs Jazz trend
The Utah Jazz have hit the Game Total Over in 17 of their last 23 games (+10.40 Units / 41% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Jazz.
How to watch Bucks vs Jazz
| Location | Delta Center, Salt Lake City, UT |
| Date | Monday, 1-27-2025 |
| Tip-off | 9:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FDSN, KJZZ |
Bucks vs Jazz latest injuries
Not intended for use in MA.
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