Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks will be looking to stay hot against a Denver Nuggets team that should be getting Nikola Jokic back tonight. This Friday night matchup should be an extremely fun one to watch, as the Nuggets are better than their record and can badly use a win over the defending champions.
Will Denver pull out a big home win at the Pepsi Center? Continue reading our Bucks vs. Nuggets NBA picks and predictions for Friday, November 26 to find out.
Bucks vs Nuggets odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Bucks are favored by anywhere from 3 to 3.5 in this game, which isn’t a big move from the opening line of Bucks -3. The total, which opened at 214, is sitting at anywhere from 213 to 214 right now. Most of the bets are coming in on the Over.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.
Bucks vs Nuggets predictions
Predictions made on 11/26/2021 at 10:25 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Bucks vs Nuggets game info
• Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO
• Date: Friday, November 26, 2021
• Tip-off: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: BSWI, ALT
Bucks vs Nuggets betting preview
Injuries
Bucks: Brook Lopez C (Out), Donte DiVincenzo G (Out)
Nuggets: Nikola Jokic C (Questionable), Nah’Shon Hyland G (Doubtful), PJ Dozier G (Out), Jamal Murray G (Out), Michael Porter Jr. F (Out)
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Bucks are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games as road favorites. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Nuggets.
Bucks vs Nuggets picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
Since Mike Budenholzer became the head coach of Milwaukee, the Bucks are 23-10 against the spread when coming off a game in which the team gave up 95 or fewer points. The Bucks have actually done just that in back-to-back contests, and have allowed 105 or fewer points in four of their last five games. Milwaukee is playing some really good defense at the moment, with four straight opponents shooting worse than 40.0 percent from the floor against the Bucks. With that, it shouldn’t be surprising if Antetokounmpo and company stifle the Nuggets, even if Jokic is in the lineup.
Over the last nine games — a span in which Milwaukee has gone 7-2 — the Bucks are 11th in the league in offensive rating and sixth in the league in defensive rating. Now, Antetokounmpo gets to attack a Nuggets squad that isn’t exactly positioned to stop him. Jokic has been much better as a defender this season, but he still has slow feet and isn’t much of a rim protector. In fact, Denver doesn’t have any of those in the rotation currently. That is not a recipe for success against Antetokounmpo.
The Bucks are also more talented throughout their rotation than the Nuggets are. Will Barton and Aaron Gordon have each played some good basketball this season, but Milwaukee has Jrue Holiday and Khris Middleton supporting the Greek Freak. Both players should have no trouble playing well in this one, and Grayson Allen could also come up big for the Bucks. Allen is averaging a career-high 14.4 points per game this year, and he’s hitting 42.3 percent of his threes.
Prediction: Bucks -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
The Under is a ridiculous 13-3 in Milwaukee’s last 16 games, and it was also 11-4 in Denver games before Jokic went down with his wrist injury. These two teams have been in some low-scoring games to start the year, and they now face one another, where sharp bettors appear to be taking the Under. Despite a large majority of the tickets in this game coming in on the Over, the number is moving down.
Since Budenholzer became Milwaukee’s head coach, the Under is 22-6 in Bucks games in which the team is facing an opponent that averages 104 or fewer points per game. That makes sense, as this Milwaukee team plays good defense on a nightly basis, so it’s not easy for poor offenses to thrive against the Bucks. Even with Jokic back, it shouldn’t just be expected that this team will suddenly start clicking offensively. The Nuggets are just missing too much firepower, with Porter, Murray, and also Hyland all out.
Prediction: Under 214 (-110)
Best bet
Over the last two seasons, Denver is 18-30 against the spread when coming off a road game, and Mike Malone’s group now hosts a Milwaukee team that has won five in a row. It does appear likely that Jokic will return in this game, as this spread seems like an indicator that he will be back out there. But regardless, this value is just way too good to pass up on a Bucks team that is playing good basketball right now.
There’s still a chance that Jokic won’t end up playing here, and that would mean that you’d get Milwaukee at a discount against a Denver squad that has lost four of its last five games by double digits. Even if he suits up, Jokic hasn’t played in over a week and sprains can be tricky, especially when they’re on your shooting wrist. If the big man isn’t hitting triples and comfortably handling the ball, the Nuggets have no chance at winning this game.
Pick: Bucks -3.5 (-110)
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