The first round of the NBA playoffs begins on Saturday with an afternoon clash between the Milwaukee Bucks and Indiana Pacers.
Milwaukee was knocked out by Indiana in the postseason last year, but they were missing superstar forward Giannis Antetokounmpo. My Bucks vs Pacers predictions expect the 'Greek Freak' to make a huge difference this time around.
Here are my best free NBA picks for Game 1 of this Eastern Conference showdown on April 19, with tipoff at 1:00 p.m. ET.
Who will win Bucks vs Pacers Game 1?
Milwaukee received some great news with Damian Lillard cleared for full basketball activities after undergoing treatment for a blood clot. He's expected to return at some point this series, but that won't be in Game 1.
Without their star point guard, the Bucks will have a tough time beating the Pacers on the road today. While I think the spread is a tad too wide, Indiana should be able to pull away for the win thanks to its depth and superior backcourt.
Bucks vs Pacers prediction
My best bet: Bucks +5.5 (-110 at bet365)
The Indiana Pacers closed out the regular season winning 12 of their final 15 games. However, many of those victories were close or came against terrible opponents, which resulted in them seldom covering. They are just 6-16 against the spread in their last 22 games.
With the Milwaukee Bucks at full strength, I would peg them as 1-point favorites against the Pacers on a neutral site. Indiana doesn't have a big home-court advantage, especially in a matchup against a divisional foe who doesn't have to travel far. That would move the line for me to Pacers -0.5 at home.
We're getting the Bucks at +5.5, which suggests that books are valuing Damian Lillard at five points on the spread. Keep in mind that prime LeBron James was worth about 3.5-4.5 points, and the Bucks still have the best player on the floor in Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Since losing Lillard in mid-March, the Bucks have gone 10-4 SU and 11-3 ATS, and that includes three games in which Antetokounmpo was also sidelined.
Indiana has a weak interior defense and struggles on the glass, ranking 28th in points allowed in the paint and rebounding rate. With Giannis dominating both areas, the Bucks are built to take advantage of those flaws and cover this number.
Bucks vs Pacers same-game parlay
Bucks +5.5
Giannis Antetokounmpo 7+ assists
Tyrese Haliburton Under 1.5 turnovers
Without Lillard running point, Giannis has often taken over as Milwaukee's primary ball-handler, becoming more of a facilitator. In 16 contests without Lillard this season, Antetokounmpo has averaged 7.9 assists per game.
He's hit the 10-assist mark in five of his last six games, which includes a career-high 20 dimes versus Philadelphia and a 15-assist performance against the Pistons. The Pacers have a middling defense and play at the seventh-fastest pace in the NBA, which should lead to plenty of assists for Giannis.
Meanwhile, Pacers point guard Tyrese Haliburton does a terrific job taking care of the ball. Haliburton has fewer than 1.5 turnovers in 16 of his last 21 games.
He went below this number in all four games against Milwaukee this season, which isn't surprising since the Bucks rank near the bottom of the league in steal rate.
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Bucks vs Pacers odds
Bucks vs Pacers live odds
Bucks vs Pacers opening odds
- Spread: Milwaukee +5.5 | Indiana -5.5
- Moneyline: Milwaukee -225 | Indiana +185
- Over/Under: Over 224.5 | Under 224.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Bucks vs Pacers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Pacers are 12-3 SU and 6-9 ATS in their last 15 games. The Over is 9-5-1 over that span.
- Indiana has a 40.8% cover rate as a favorite this season, while Milwaukee has a 59.3% cover rate as an underdog.
- Over the last five years, Antetokounmpo has averaged 35.4 ppg, 12.8 rpg, and 6.6 apg in 17 games versus the Pacers.
- These teams clashed four times this season, with the Bucks going 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in those meetings.
Bucks vs Pacers trend
Milwaukee is 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in its last eight games. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Pacers.
How to watch Bucks vs Pacers
| Location | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date | Saturday, 4-19-2025 |
| Tip-off | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Bucks vs Pacers latest injuries
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