Giannis Antetokounmpo continues to amaze. The Greek Freak is coming off a career-high 55 points in a win over the Washington Wizards last night. So, what will he have in store for an encore when the Milwaukee Bucks visit the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday night? And will he even play?
The Raps are favored by a handful of points in this Eastern Conference matchup, and while they are playing at home, it seems like too much chalk for a game Giannis is involved in when you consider the current form of this squad.
So, what’s a Toronto bettor to do? Turn to Pascal Siakam of course. I break down this matchup that could feature two of the NBA’s most dynamic players and give you my best bet in my NBA betting picks and predictions Bucks vs. Raptors.
Bucks vs Raptors best odds
Bucks vs Raptors picks and predictions
Let’s get this out of the way.
It sounds like Giannis Antetokounmpo will be playing in this game but his supporting cast will be lacking — with Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, Joe Ingles, and George Hill all out with various ailments. That said, Giannis and four rodeo clowns might have a shot against this Raptors team with the way they are currently playing, and this line is giving them too much respect.
I still like the Bucks with the points, but with all those guys sidelined they get downgraded a bit from “best bet” territory.
Instead, and I know I sound like a broken record about this, but I’m leaning on the only reliable thing about the Raptors at this moment and that’s Pascal Siakam.
The All-NBA forward has been rock solid for a team struggling to find their identity. Siakam is averaging 26.5 points on 48.5% shooting while adding 8.3 rebounds and 6.7 assists per game this season, and he’s tried to shoulder the load even more of late.
Siakam has put up 32 points per game over his last eight contests while shooting 50.8% from the field, including 36.8% from 3-point range.
"Spicy P" has always been a matchup issue for the Bucks, which is kind of funny considering they have Giannis, but last season Siakam averaged 27.7 points in three games against them. And with the players they are down, they’ll be short on guys to defend him.
Pascal has gone for 25 points or more in eight straight, and he’s gone for 26 or more in seven of those eight. I’m banking on him making it eight of nine against a Milwaukee side that could show some fatigue in the second half of a back-to-back with a short bench.
My best bet: Pascal Siakam Over 25.5 points (-115 at PointsBet)
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Bucks vs Raptors spread analysis
OK. Back to the spread.
The Raptors opened this Eastern Conference matchup between 2-and-3-point home favorites, and were bet as high as -5 before some Bucks buyback dropped the number to 4.5. And as I said, this is still too much respect for Toronto, even if Giannis is by himself.
The Raptors same old issues popped up in their 122-114 loss to the Indiana Pacers their last time out (their ninth loss in their last 12 games no less). Toronto allowed the Pacers to shoot nearly 50% from the floor for the game and only created five steals — meaning the effort on defense still isn’t where it needs to be.
This is a team known for its high IQ and high-intensity defense, and when that’s not working, everything falls apart. It’s been so bad in fact, that over the last 12 games it ranks 27th in defensive rating, 28th in opponent field goal percentage, and dead-last in opponent 3-point percentage.
While the Bucks are still looking for some consistency of their own, they still rank a solid 11th in net rating and still have this guy nicknamed the "Greek Freak", who is averaging just 40.4 points over his last seven games.
Until the Raptors can show consistent improvement, getting points with a team that has Giannis on the floor is the way to go.
Bucks vs Raptors Over/Under analysis
The total hit the board at 229 and it has been all Under money so far, with the number dropping to the current 226.
Generally, I tend to think of the Raptors as an Under team with their usually lock-down defense and a half-court offense that is shaky at the best of times. Overall, the Raptors rank 16th in offensive rating but 28th in effective field goal percentage. But the defense has been so bad recently, that hasn’t been the case and the Over is 7-5 in their last 12.
The thinking with the Under here is the Bucks have also been inconsistent and are dealing with a short bench on a back-to-back. But it’s hard to have confidence in Toronto shutting down anyone at this point in time. And with that short bench, Milwaukee's defense will also take a hit.
The range of outcomes for how the scoring can go in this game is too wide for me to even lean towards a side of the total. So, I’ll stay away tonight.
Bucks vs Raptors betting trend to know
The Bucks are 4-0 ATS in their last four when playing in the second half of a back-to-back. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Raptors.
Bucks vs Raptors game info
| Location: | Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON |
| Date: | Wednesday, January 4, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
Bucks vs Raptors key injuries
