Basketball fans are getting spoiled because we get to watch the two best teams in the NBA go head-to-head for the second time in about a week. That’s right, the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Oklahoma City Thunder face off again on Thursday, January 16.
The first matchup didn’t disappoint with the Cavs winning a 129-122 thriller at home. My Cavaliers vs. Thunder predictions expect a high-scoring finish, regardless of the winner.
Here are my NBA picks for this dynamite matchup set to tipoff at 7:30 ET at the Paycom Center.
Cavaliers vs Thunder prediction
My best bet
Over 233 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
The Cleveland Cavaliers lead the Eastern Conference with a 34-5 record while the Oklahoma City Thunder are an equally impressive 33-6 to lead the West. Both have star guards in Donovan Mitchell and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander who lead impressive and deep rosters. The Thunder lead the NBA in net rating while the Cavaliers are second.
So, when these two NBA juggernauts finally met last Wednesday, basketball fans everywhere were hoping the game wouldn’t disappoint. And boy did they deliver.
The Cavaliers won a thrilling back-and-forth matchup, covering the 3-point home chalk in the process. The game showed how close and exciting of a matchup this can be. But the Cavs clearly had one big advantage over the Thunder, and that was down low.
Mitchell didn't power the Cavs to that win. Instead, it was their Twin Towers of Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. Both recorded double-doubles with Allen going for 25 points and 11 boards while Mobley put up 21 and 10.
Dealing with size has been a problem for the Thunder all season, best exemplified by their numbers on the glass. OKC is ranked 27th in rebounding rate, 28th in opponent rebounds per game, and 29th in opponent offensive rebounds per game.
So, while the Thunder are a strong defensive team, an opponent like the Cavs can attack the glass and earn plenty of second-chance opportunities.
On the other side, while those two Cavs’ bigs are an intimidating presence on the inside, a good shooting team like the Thunder can do some damage on the outside. Cleveland ranks a good, but not great, 10th in opponent effect field-goal percentage and 22nd in opponent 3-point shooting percentage.
And wouldn’t you know it, OKC went a solid 11-for-35 (35%) from beyond the arc in that last matchup against the Cavs.
Mix in the fact that these teams both rank in the Top 8 when it comes to pace of play, and suddenly it isn’t shocking that this matchup, despite featuring two great defenses, cruised over the total.
That game saw 251 points, nearly 20 points higher than the closing total of 231.5. Now, there has been a little adjustment with the total sitting at 233 this time around, but considering the quality and style of the teams, I don’t think that’s enough.
Cavaliers vs Thunder same-game parlay
Over 233.5
Donovan Mitchell Over 4.5 Rebounds
Lu Dort Over 1.5 Assists
I hinted at the fact that the Thunder struggle on the boards, but unsurprisingly, both Allen and Mobley have hefty rebounding totals for this one. So instead, let’s look at a Cavs guard who also puts in work on the glass.
I am talking about none other than Mitchell. The Cavs star guard averages 4.5 rebounds per game this season and he’s grabbed 18 boards over his last three games, including six in that last meeting against the Thunder.
Meanwhile, the Thunder know the best way to attack the Cavaliers is on the perimeter, so making the extra pass will be very important.
Lu Dort only averages 1.6 assists per game this season, but there was an emphasis on sharing the ball in that last meeting against the Cavs, and he dished out four dimes and has recorded 2+ in four of the last nine.
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Cavaliers vs Thunder odds
Cavaliers vs Thunder live odds
Cavaliers vs Thunder opening odds
- Spread: Cleveland +3.5 | Oklahoma City -3.5
- Moneyline: Cleveland +140 | Oklahoma City -165
- Over/Under: Over 231.5 | Under 231.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Cavaliers vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Thunder opened as 3.5-point home favorites but early bettors were quick to jump on the Cavaliers as underdogs, moving the spread as low as 1.5 before some buyback on OKC brought the number to 2.
- Both teams have been excellent bets this season. The Cavs are 27-12 ATS while the Thunder are 27-10-3. With little separating these two great teams, I would prefer to look at the underdog on the moneyline.
- The total hit the board at 231.5 and was bet up to 233.5 before dropping to 233 as of Thursday afternoon.
- The opening number is what the Jan. 16 meeting closed at, so it's not a surprise to see it tick up a bit considering there were 251 points scored in that game.
Cavaliers vs Thunder trend
The Cavaliers have hit the Game Total Over in 46 of their last 71 games dating back to last season for +18.50 Units and a 24% ROI Find more NBA betting trends for Cavaliers vs. Thunder.
How to watch Cavaliers vs Thunder
| Location: | Paycom Center, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma |
| Date: | Thursday, 1-16-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Cavaliers vs Thunder latest injuries
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