Celtics vs Bucks Picks and Predictions: Can Cs Hang Tough Sans Tatum?

The seeding jostling continues among the Eastern Conference’s best, but the Celtics may be the first of the top four to acquiesce homecourt advantage in the later rounds of the playoffs for preferable matchups early on.

At least, that is the signal Boston is sending by resting Jayson Tatum at Milwaukee tonight.

Here are our free NBA picks and predictions for the Celtics at the Bucks on April 7, with tip set for 7:30 p.m. ET.

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Celtics vs Bucks odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

Milwaukee was originally only a 4.5-point favorite when this line first went to market on Wednesday afternoon. That ticked up to -6.5 by early Thursday morning before jumping to -8.5 in the mid-afternoon as Boston announced its roster availability.

The total saw far less movement, opening at 227.5 and returning to that number after bouncing between 226.5 and 228.5.

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right until tip-off and be sure to check out the full NBA odds before betting to ensure you get the best number.

Celtics vs Bucks predictions

• Prediction: Celtics +8.5 (-104)
• Prediction: Under 227.5 (-110)
• Best bet: Bucks 1H -4.5 (-110)

Predictions made on 4/7/2022 at 3:30 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

Celtics vs Bucks game info

• Location: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI
• Date: Thursday, April 7, 2022
• Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
• TV: TNT

Celtics vs Bucks betting preview

Key injuries

Celtics: Jayson Tatum PF (Out), Al Horford C (Out), Marcus Smart PG (Probable), Nik Stauskas SG (Out), Robert Williams C (Out).
Bucks: Giannis Antetokounmpo SF (Probable), Grayson Allen SG (Doubtful).
Find our latest NBA injury reports.

Betting trend to know

The Celtics are 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings against the Bucks. Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Bucks.

Celtics vs Bucks picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Let’s start with the context here as Boston sits Jayson Tatum and Al Horford. Both have played recently with their respective Thursday ailments, right patella tendinopathy and back soreness, so it is safe to think they could play tonight.

But at some point, the Celtics wanted to get them a night off. Why choose a matchup against the team only half a game behind Boston in the chase for the Eastern 2-seed?

Because the Celtics might not want the two-seed. The tiebreaker scenarios on hand between Milwaukee, Boston, and Philadelphia are rather in-depth, and with two or three games remaining for each, the conference and division records are still vaguely in flux.

But the point that matters tonight: If Boston loses, it is far more likely to end up No. 3 or 4 in the East, rather than No. 2. As the three-seed, the Celtics would likely face the Bulls. As the four-seed, they would expect to welcome the Raptors.

Both those scenarios sound preferable compared to the likelihood of meeting the Nets in the first round if Brooklyn wins the top Eastern Conference play-in spot.

Hence, resting Tatum and Horford.

Milwaukee does not seem to care who it faces in the playoffs, and given last year’s Eastern Conference Finals classic, all NBA fans should welcome any moment when the Bucks face the Nets.

Now, to tonight’s game. Resting Tatum and Horford was not entirely unexpected, which led to the initial line movement up to +6.5 from +4.5, but when the news became public, the line steamed two points further. That move was too much.

This is a ripe moment to “buy on bad news, sell on good”. The public jumped too hard on Milwaukee after confirming the news that Tatum would sit. The Celtics still have plenty of quality players to keep tonight nominally competitive, namely Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, and Derrick White.

Furthermore, without Tatum around to present the ultimate Boston threat, the Bucks will be more likely to ease up late, creating a backdoor moment for the Celtics to capitalize on this inflated line.

Boston has not lost by more than eight points since February. In fact, the Celtics have only one such loss in their last 30 games. Tonight will not make for a second.

Prediction: Celtics +8.5 (-104 at SportsInteraction)

Over/Under analysis

Recent trends will encourage taking the Over here. In the second night of Boston’s last 11 back-to-backs, 10 have hit the Over. Four of Milwaukee’s last five games hit the Over. Seven of the last eight meetings between these two have gone Over the total.

But if one team is all but waving a white flag before tip, the Under always gains credence. A game will be played tonight. There will be (at least) 48 minutes of basketball. Jaylen Brown could turn into Larry Bird in a warmup jacket and shoot the Celtics to a victory.

But more likely, a decent Bucks lead will lead to fourth-quarter formalities. If neither team is pressing, literally or figuratively, then the Over loses credibility.

And if this becomes an absolute blowout, then those thoughts are only strengthened. A fourth quarter spent draining the shot clock to prevent injuries with the playoffs a week away could send this game well Under its reasonable total.

Prediction: Under 227.5 (-110 at SportsInteraction)

Best bet

That possibility of a blowout scares this handicap away from taking the Celtics to cover the full-game spread. A few quick Khris Middleton threes in the final frame could turn a 7-point deficit into a 13-point gap, and then cruise control might ruin even a backdoor cover’s chance.

When bothered by that worry, the first-half spread can represent a truer wager, though one also with a smaller sample size of action leading to some variance concerns.

The Bucks should control tonight. The game has been designed for that. (Please, NBA, stop backloading the schedule to avoid as much direct competition with NFL games.)

If resting Tatum and Horford has affected Boston’s mentality at all tonight — and if so, understandably so — then a slow start would hardly be shocking. Let’s bet on Milwaukee to win the first half by at least two buckets.

Pick: Bucks first half -4.5 (-110)

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