The Cleveland Cavaliers will host the Boston Celtics at Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse tonight for Game 4 of their best-of-seven series.
Boston hasn't played many close games in these NBA Playoffs, and I'm using that to my advantage in my Celtics vs. Cavaliers prediction. Find out why I'm betting on Jaylen Brown to go Over 2.5 assists in my NBA picks on Monday, May 13.
Celtics vs Cavaliers prediction
My best bet
Jaylen Brown Over 2.5 assists (-125 at BetMGM)
Best odds available in your region
My analysis
Tom Thibodeau has been under fire for making his starters essentially play the entirety of every game. This has caused sportsbooks to price their player props as if they're playing 40+ minutes per night. That's not the case for the Boston Celtics, and the score of games is likely why. Every single N.Y. game comes down to the final possession, whereas the Celtics games are all blowouts.
Even the games the Celtics lost were complete blowouts that saw the starters play decreased minutes.
It creates a scenario for someone like Jaylen Brown, who isn't playing heavy minutes and going way Over his totals, so we don't need as many minutes from Brown to establish an edge. I'm playing the Over on his assists total of 2.5 at -125 because we only need around 36 minutes from Brown to get what we're looking for.
When it's the NBA Playoffs, you're on the road, and the highest-paid player in the NBA, 36 minutes isn't asking for a lot. Brown just hasn't seen big minutes because of the scores of previous games, but even if you look at Game 3 — which was relatively close — Brown played 41.
Why the assists prop? Well, Brown is one of those players who, if something isn't making him pass, he'll take the shots and not get many assists. The Cleveland Cavaliers have rim protection in Evan Mobley, who can force a pass from Brown.
He's averaging 6.3 potential assists per game in the series, but I also believe Jarrett Allen could return on Monday. With Mobley and Allen in the paint, Brown should be looking for more dump-offs or kick-outs for shooters.
Typically, throwing another rim protector into the mix such as Allen is a negative for an assists prop, but for someone like Brown, I think it might actually help him.
Brown is someone who can drive the lane and post up a bit against this Cavaliers' defense, and the majority of his potential assists come on 3-point attempts that he generated. The Celtics don't have a lob threat that Allen is all of a sudden taking away from Brown and hurting his ability to convert potential assists. If anything, he should just force more passes on his drives to the dunker's spot or shooters.
Brown is projected to have 3.4 assists which allows us to price the Over 2.5 assists at -184.
Celtics vs Cavaliers same-game parlay (SGP)
Jaylen Brown Over 2.5 assists
Max Strus Over 2.5 assists
Cavaliers +8.5
Strus Over 2.5 assists was one of my best bets for the day, and you can read a full breakdown in our daily NBA player props article. Essentially, I believe Strus' role as the screen in P&R will offer him opportunities to give off extra passes, which should lead to more assists off the pop.
A close game helps both of these props because it should elevate the minutes of both Brown and Strus — something we haven't seen because of how this series has played out and their previous ones against the Heat and Magic.
A close game is very much our friend on Monday.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Celtics vs Cavaliers odds
Celtics vs Cavaliers live odds
Get the latest Celtics vs Cavaliers NBA playoff odds for Game 4.
Celtics vs Cavaliers opening odds
- Spread: Boston -8 (-110) | Cleveland +8 (-110)
- Moneyline: Boston -350 | Cleveland +280
- Over/Under: Over 208.5 (-110) | Under 208.5 (-110)
Celtics vs Cavaliers spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Celtics opened as an 8-point favorite on FanDuel and are now trading as an 8.5-point favorite.
- This line didn't really move when the news dropped about Donovan Mitchell missing shootaround, which tells me he is most likely still playing.
- The total opened at 208.5 at FanDuel and is now trading at 207.
- We are still awaiting official news on whether Allen will suit up for the Cavaliers on Monday, and his status should cause a slight move in the odds when it is officially announced.
Celtics vs Cavaliers trend
The Celtics have hit the first-half moneyline in 39 of their last 45 away games (+30.65 Units / 26% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Cavaliers.
Celtics vs Cavaliers game info
| Location: | Rocket Mortgage Fieldhouse, Cleveland, OH |
| Date: | Monday, 5-13-2024 |
| Tip-off: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Celtics vs Cavaliers latest injuries
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