Celtics vs Nuggets Odds, Picks, and Predictions Tonight: Jokic Punishes Boston in the Paint

Grab your popcorn, kids. Thursday night, we get — according to the NBA championship odds — a preview of the most likely Finals matchup as the Denver Nuggets host the Boston Celtics. 

While reigning champion Denver is working through some midseason complacency, Boston has been terrorizing the league, winning 11 straight games before finally blowing a double-digit fourth-quarter lead to the Cavs on Tuesday night.

In order to avenge that collapse, they'll need to come through as short NBA odds underdogs on the road — are Jayson Tatum & Co. up to the task? 

Let's dive into my free NBA picks for Celtics vs. Nuggets and find the best betting angle for tonight.

Celtics vs Nuggets odds

Celtics vs Nuggets predictions

It seems kind of trite to repeat at this point, but the NBA is a superstar's league where the best players often show up for the biggest games. Nikola Jokic is likely the best basketball player alive, and while the NBA MVP odds favorite likes to play coy in the media, there's clearly a brutally competitive killer lurking underneath his mild-mannered facade.

Jokic will attack this matchup, knowing that it's a national TV showcase and possible precursor to the Nuggets' ultimate title defense in June. Again, he claims to not care about this shit, but you don't get to be an NBA champion and likely three-time MVP without that kind of mentality.

Jokic is exactly the kind of stat-stuffer whose points + rebounds + assists market is a regular target option, especially in buy-low spots before big matchups, which is exactly what we're getting tonight. Nikola Jokic's odds tab his Over/Under at 46.5 tonight — definitely on the low end, given the stakes. 

We're getting that number for a variety of reasons, none of which I think are particularly valid. First off, the expected slow pace (Denver's the NBA's fourth-slowest team, Boston ranks just 19th) and playoff-type atmosphere. We'll put a pin in this and get back to it in a moment.

Second, Jokic is coming off a pretty bad game in which the Suns (remember, Jusuf Nurkic mentored rookie Jokic) forced him into 44% shooting and more turnovers than assists — a complete anomaly that may still influence a recency-bias-heavy public. Speaking of recency, thirdly, Jokic saw depressed scoring totals in February, averaging just 23.7 points.

Despite the reduced output in the points department, Joker still averaged a triple-double for the month, and while he was content to pick apart lesser teams like the Wizards and Blazers (combined 29 assists), he should assert himself in the scoring department this evening. 

Although they're an overall elite defensive team, Jokic is a uniquely terrible matchup for the Celtics. Kristaps Porzingis is long and nimble, but Joker is better at getting into a defender's body — negating their length while creating separation — than anyone in modern NBA history. He was beyond comfortable posting up Porzingis early and often the last time these teams met, on January 19:

Things didn't get any better for Al Horford. Joe Mazzulla even got creative and threw Jrue Holiday at Jokic in the second half, but there was just no answer. Jokic poured in 34 points on 64% shooting while grabbing 12 boards, almost acing tonight's PRA total without factoring in assists. 

Now, here's the kicker: Remember that pin we put in the "slow game/playoff atmosphere" angle? That previous Celts-Nugs matchup saw an anemic 202 points and was played at a pace of 86.00, which, for context, is 15% slower than the league's current lowest rate, and slower than any team has played in the playoffs since 2011.

If Jokic can put up 34 points and 55 PRA in such a shackled setting, it feels like books are seriously underestimating what he should have in store tonight.

My best bet: Nikola Jokic Over 24.5 points (-125 at BetMGM) and Over 46.5 points + rebounds + assists (-120 at DraftKings)

Celtics vs Nuggets same-game parlay

Nikola Jokic Over 24.5 points

Nikola Jokic Over 46.5 points + rebounds + assists

Nuggets moneyline

+252 at DraftKings

A fun part about having two best bets for this game is they create automatic tentpoles for our same-game parlay pick. 

We're also tabbing on the Nuggets moneyline in a spot that most books are trading close to a pick'em as of Thursday morning. Not only is All-Star Jaylen Brown popping up on the Celtics' injury report, but the Nuggets feel like a sleeping giant whose recent form kind of belies what this team is capable of. This is arguably their biggest game of the season — still within inches of the West's No. 1 seed — and they have a better home-court edge on paper than any team in the league. 

Mike Malone's going to have this unit well-oiled and ready to compete tonight, and while I have zero doubt the Celtics will also be motivated after coughing up a potential 12th-straight win the other night, they don't have Nikola Jokic.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Celtics vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis

The Celtics opened as 1.5-point favorites Wednesday night, but with Brown now possibly sitting, most books have flipped to Nuggets -1.5. While Boston's been tearing the league apart lately, this is a bad matchup and potential letdown spot, on the road and in a difficult, elevated arena.

There are still a few rogue numbers available (Pinnacle tabs Celtics -1 as of mid-Thursday morning), and Covers Consensus seems set on the Nuggets, with 63% of bettors backing them. While the Celts are 30-28-3 ATS this season, the Nuggets have lagged slightly at 27-34-1, though noticeably better at home (14-15-1).

The total is set around 221, with a half-point available on either side depending on where you shop. It's roughly 20 more points than these teams scored in their glacial-paced matchup on January 19.

It's worth noting that the Celtics have been trending to the Under, at 7-15 O/U in their last 22, and similarly for the Nuggets, at 5-15 O/U in their last 20.

Celtics vs Nuggets betting trend to know

The Nuggets have covered the first-quarter spread in 45 of their last 75 games (+12.3 units/15% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Nuggets.

Celtics vs Nuggets game info

Celtics vs Nuggets latest injuries

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