One of the most intriguing NBA games of the new year takes place out west when the Denver Nuggets play host to the Boston Celtics in a matchup of the last two NBA champions.
But while these are the two most recent Finals winners, my Celtics vs. Nuggets predictions break down why they are not on the same level this season.
Check out my NBA picks for this matchup set to tip off at 10 p.m. ET at Ball Arena on Tuesday, January 7.
Celtics vs Nuggets prediction
My best bet
Celtics -5.5 (-110 at bet365)
My analysis
Yes, this is a matchup of the last two NBA Finals winners, and the star power is pretty evenly matched with Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown facing off against Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray.
But that’s where the similarities end, as oddsmakers think there is quite a gap between these former champs.
The Boston Celtics are the +225 favorite to defend their title this season when it comes to NBA championship markets, while the Denver Nuggets sit in the fringe contender range at +1400. So, why the big gap?
It comes down to two things: defense and depth.
The Celtics, who enter this game at 26-10, continue to be one of the best defensive teams in the NBA. Boston ranks sixth in defensive rating and fourth in opponent effective field goal percentage. Now, Jokic and the Nuggets will provide a tough test, but Tatum & Co. will face much less resistance.
Denver has taken a big step back at that end of the floor this season. The Nuggets rank 19th in defensive rating and 14th in opponent eFG%.
The other problem for the Nuggets is their depth. This is a thin roster that looks thinner, with Aaron Gordon sidelined with a calf injury. They are relying on a lot of minutes from Jokic, Murray, Michael Porter Jr., and (checks notes) Russell Westbrook.
That lack of depth could be exposed against a Celtics team with arguably the best starting lineup in basketball supported by an excellent bench.
Combined, that means slowing down the Celtics, who have the NBA’s second-rated offense will be tough.
That’s the reason the Celtics are laying this many points on the road against what is a solid, albeit flawed team. I just don’t think 5.5 points is enough.
Celtics vs Nuggets same-game parlay
Celtics -5.5
Derrick White Over 4.5 assists
Michael Porter Jr. Over 5.5 rebounds
Another thing that has burned the Nuggets this season is the extra pass. Denver ranks dead last in the NBA in both opponent assists per game and possession, and the Celtics have some interesting players to back in the assists prop market.
My favorite is Derrick White. The C's guard has seen his assists numbers dip recently, but that’s just giving us a good number and price tonight. White is averaging 4.4 assists per game, but that number was 5.0 over his first 22 games. He also recorded five or more assists in two matchups against the Nuggets last season.
One place the Celtics could improve their numbers is on the boards. Boston ranks a middling 14th in rebounding rate and 15th in opponent rebounds per game.
The Nuggets will need more from Michael Porter Jr. on the glass with Aaron Gordon out. He is averaging 6.5 rebounds per game this season and pulled down 10 rebounds in the Nuggets last game. With a modest number of 5.5 give me the Over in this matchup.
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Celtics vs Nuggets odds
Celtics vs Nuggets live odds
Celtics vs Nuggets opening odds
- Spread: Boston -4.5 | Denver +4.5
- Moneyline: Boston -170 | Denver +145
- Over/Under: Over 236.5 | Under 236.5
Odds courtesy of bet365
Celtics vs Nuggets spread and Over/Under analysis
- The Nuggets opened this matchup as 4.5 points underdogs, but bettors were quick to jump on the Celtics at that number, moving the spread as high as 6.0 before some action on the home team moved the line back to 5.5.
- Neither team has been a great bet this season, with the Celtics going 14-21-1 ATS while the Nuggets are 15-18-1 ATS. That said, the Celtics edge on defense has me comfortable laying this number with the favorite.
- The total hit the board at 236.5 and has been bet up slightly to 237.5 as of Tuesday afternoon.
- The Nuggets' combination of impressive offensive and struggling defense has made them a solid Over bet this season, going 21-12-1 O/U.
Celtics vs Nuggets trend
The Nuggets have only covered the first-half spread in 18 of their last 56 games dating back to last season for -26.00 Units and a -40% ROI. Find more NBA betting trends for Celtics vs. Nuggets.
How to watch Celtics vs Nuggets
| Location: | Ball Arena, Denver, CO |
| Date: | Tuesday, 1-7-2025 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
Celtics vs Nuggets latest injuries
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