The hyper-competitive Pacific Division will see its latest installment on Friday night, as the L.A. Clippers visit the Sacramento Kings.
L.A. played last night in San Francisco and so, to the surprise of no one, Kawhi Leonard will be out for the second part of the team's back-to-back. With no Kawhi to contend with, the Beam Team is as high as -7 on the NBA odds board.
Ahead of tonight's late tip, check out our NBA picks for the Clippers vs. Kings.
Clippers vs Kings best odds
Clippers vs Kings picks and predictions
It's quite a scary notion, for a team that introduced Russell Westbrook to its rotation in recent games, but the Clippers' offense will be an even rougher watch tonight vs. the Kings.
While Kawhi Leonard has gotten back to his lethally efficient best as the season has progressed, L.A.'s offense as a whole has remained stuck in the mud. The Clips are 21st in offensive rating, at 114.37, but that figure drops to 110.3 with Leonard off the floor.
From a season-long perspective, that would rank dead last in the league — somehow beating out the Spurs, Rockets, and Hornets, all of whom would look at the G League Ignite like Angola looked at the 1992 U.S. Dream Team.
Making matters worse for the Clips, Norman Powell, who has been quite easily their third-best player this year, is questionable with an arm injury. Powell may play through it, with Leonard already out, but we can certainly expect it to impact his performance after a hideous 1-for-9 night last night, finishing with two points in 20 minutes.
And then there's Russell Westbrook, whose toxic presence has already been felt in full force on the court for L.A. The Clippers have gotten the full experience already, with Westbrook weighing down their offense to the tune of a -5.7 on/off split in offensive rating while turning the ball over 4.3 times a game vs. just 1.8 assists.
No Leonard and an, at best, limited Powell will mean more usage for Westbrook. That in itself has me confidently hitting the Under on the Clippers' team total tonight.
My best bet: Clippers team total Under 116.5 (-115 at bet365)
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Clippers vs Kings spread analysis
With L.A. on the second night of a back-to-back, Leonard already ruled out, and multiple more rotation players (Powell, Marcus Morris, Ivica Zubac) questionable, it's unsurprisingly moved from +6 to +7.5 as of Friday afternoon.
I am still quite happy to take the Kings at -7.5, assuming De'Aaron Fox does suit up, with absolute confidence Westbrook will sabotage the Clippers' chances of remaining competitive against a good NBA team.
There's already a glaring gap between these two teams in net rating — with the Kings +2.46 and the Clippers -0.39 — and that's before considering Leonard's absence and the addition of Westbrook.
L.A. came out entirely flat in night one of its back-to-back, losing by 24 to the Curry-less Warriors. Its outlook is even worse tonight.
Clippers vs Kings Over/Under analysis
A week after playing out the second-highest scoring game in NBA history, the total for tonight's game hit the board at an inflated 242. That number has since come down to 239.5. With my best bet the Under on L.A.'s team total, I am tentatively looking at the full-game Under, as well, pending Fox's status.
Fox is questionable for tonight with a wrist injury but if he goes, I will not only be dodging the full-game total entirely but hitting the Over on the Kings' team total of 123.5. Similar to my Clips' team total handicap, this comes down to Westbrook's toxicity and the choppiness of L.A.'s offense.
We know with high usage for Westbrook will come a high rate of turnovers, and that can push an already great Kings offense over the edge.
The Kings generate the sixth-most fast-break points per game, at 15.7, while ranking fifth in fast-break efficiency. If Fox's opportunistic point-of-attack defense and breakneck pace in transition are able to meet Westbrook's chaotic ball-handling, I like Sacramento's chances of having an excellent night on offense.
Clippers vs Kings betting trend to know
The Over is 3-0-1 in the Kings' last four games. Find more NBA betting trends for Clippers vs. Kings.
Clippers vs Kings game info
| Location: | Golden 1 Center, Sacramento, CA |
| Date: | Friday, March 3, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | Bally Sports SoCal, NBCS California |
