A crucial contest out West is the main event of Thursday’s NBA betting slate. The Los Angeles Clippers and Golden State Warriors are not only locking horns in the conference standings, but butting heads in the City by the Bay.
Golden State and Los Angeles sit No. 5 and No. 6 respectively in the Western pecking order with identical winning percentages, but the recent fortunes of these two franchises couldn’t be any different. The Dubs have won three in a row heading into this game while the Clips are mired in a three-game skid since adding veteran guard Russell Westbrook to the lineup.
I break down the spread and Over/Under betting action and give my best NBA picks and predictions for the Clippers vs. Warriors on March 2.
Clippers vs Warriors best odds
Clippers vs Warriors picks and predictions
With the addition of Russell Westbrook to an already deep Clippers roster, head coach Tyronn Lue is having to make some hard decisions when it comes to his lineups.
Lue is likely looking at a guard-heavy Warriors rotation tonight, with Andrew Wiggins still away from the Dubs due to personal reasons. That’s left Steve Kerr to roll out a smaller starting five with Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson, and Donte DiVincenzo.
In order to match that quickness, Lue will lean into Westbrook as well as reserves Terrance Mann, Norman Powell, and Eric Gordon — the same way he did when these divisional rivals clashed back on Valentine’s Day.
Veteran forward Marcus Morris Sr. looks to be the odd man out in that rotation. He registered just 23 minutes against Golden State on Feb. 14, recording six points on 2-for-7 shooting and his recent play could diminish his minutes further.
Since that game with the Warriors, Morris is a collective 11-for-30 from the floor and averaging just 5.4 points in 24.4 minutes per game — a steep decline from his 12.6 points in 29 minutes per outing prior to this five-game stretch. That span also includes two overtime games, one that went two added frames, so Morris' recent tallies are a touch inflated.
In his last showing, Morris made it out for only 21 minutes and finished 0-for-3 for two points and two turnovers in the loss to Minnesota. Lue benched his starting forward for 16 of the final 17 minutes of that game.
Morris has a total points prop of 8.5 O/U with the Under sitting at -120. He’s gone below his point total in seven of his last eight outings and runs into a Warriors' defensive that holds its own at home, ranking No. 4 in advanced defensive rating inside the Chase Center.
With Lue on limited time to find the best lineup chemistry and the struggling Morris not fitting tonight’s mold, this could finally be the game Lue sends his 33-year-old forward to the bench.
My best bet: Marcus Morris Sr. Under 8.5 Points (-120)
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Clippers vs Warriors spread analysis
The Clippers opened as low as 2.5-point road favorites and this spread has slowly ticked up to as high as -4.5 at some shops.
The Warriors are already down starters in Stephen Curry and Andrew Wiggins, but now star guard Jordan Poole has popped up on the injury report nursing a knee injury. However, he is expected to play tonight.
Golden State has benefited from home cooking during this three-game winning streak, beating the likes of Houston, Minnesota, and Portland. The Warriors are a different team inside the Chase Center, where they own a +7.3 average margin (vs. -6.7 on the road) and boast a homecourt net rating ranked No. 6 in the league. That’s translated into a 20-11-1 against the spread count as hosts.
Los Angeles’ three-game stumble out of the break should be taken with a grain of salt, considering two of those losses came in overtime against teams above it in the Western standings (Sacramento and Denver). The Clips did, however, look listless in a 108-101 loss to Minnesota at home Tuesday, falling short as 6.5-point chalk thanks to 24 turnovers.
That home defeat wrapped up a February to forget for L.A. backers, with the team barfing out a 4-6 ATS count last month. Overall, the Clippers are 31-33 ATS on the season with an 18-16 ATS record on the road.
These Pacific Division foes last faced off on Valentine’s Day, with Los Angeles winning a 134-124 shootout at home and covering as an 8-point favorite. The Dubs were without Curry and Wiggins for that matchup as well.
Clippers vs Warriors Over/Under analysis
Thursday’s total opened at 234 points and has slimmed to as low as 231.5 as of this afternoon.
That’s where the total for the February 14 matchup between the Clippers and Warriors opened, with that number closing at 229.5 points. The teams blew that total out of the water, with 258 combined points and both sides shooting 53% or better from the field.
Golden State is a much stingier defensive team at home, giving up just 112.6 points per contest compared to 123.5 on the road. That’s held up over this three-game run, with the Warriors holding those recent opponents to point totals of 101, 104, and 105 while allowing a collective 41.4% success rate from the floor. Each of those last three games stayed below the total and the Dubs are 13-18-1 O/U as hosts on the season.
The Clippers' defense has slid during its three-game skid, with those opponents shooting a combined 52.9% from the field. Los Angeles was at the mercy of the Kings and Nuggets' potent attacks, but also watched the Wolves hit at 48% earlier this week. Minnesota didn’t shoot well from outside and left points on the table at the free-throw line, so that 108-101 outcome could have been a lot worse.
That result finished below the total of 231 and snapped a four-game Over run in Clippers games, with the Over cashing in during regulation before the extra periods versus Sacramento and Denver. On the season, L.A. is 29-35 O/U but 22-12 O/U on the road.
Clippers vs Warriors betting trend to know
The Under is a perfect 7-0 when Golden State is set as a rare home underdog the past two seasons, including 4-0 as a home pup this year. Find more NBA betting trends for Clippers vs. Warriors.
Clippers vs Warriors game info
| Location: | Chase Center, San Francisco, CA |
| Date: | Thursday, March 2, 2023 |
| Tip-off: | 10:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TNT |
