NBA Draft Best Bets, Odds, & Prop Picks: How the Top 3 Will Play Out

(Check out NBA Draft betting picks for Round 2!)

NBA draft odds will take an extra night to play out this year, splitting the rounds into Wednesday and Thursday nights. The most intrigue, obviously, will come right out of the gates.

The Atlanta Hawks have been coy with who they will take first overall, and they may trade the No. 1 pick. Even beyond the Hawks’ thoughts, gauging the order of Zaccharie Risacher, Donovan Clingan, and Alexandre Sarr is a wild challenge this year, adding an extra layer to dissect for NBA draft best bets.

For now, finding value in Wednesday night’s action will make it that much more engaging.

2024 NBA Draft best bets

Top 3 exact order

First of all, never believe a word that is leaked in the lead-up to the draft. Every team has only incentive to mislead others. That leads to lies reaching the broader public.

Some sources are honest, but be skeptical of them all.

In a similar vein, French prospect Alexandre Sarr has refused to work out for the Atlanta Hawks. The 7-foot-1 center seems dubious of his path to playing time in Atlanta, who already have two logjammed centers under contract for 2024-25 (Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu) amid other roster uncertainty.

Nonetheless, Sarr has played hard-to-get in this draft prep, somewhat elevating Zaccharie Risacher’s chances to be the No. 1 overall pick. All betting odds very much expect the first two picks to be Risacher and Sarr, particularly given the Washington Wizards’ penchant for scouting Sarr in Perth this past season.

At No. 3, the Houston Rockets may not much care for Donovan Clingan. They have fourth-year center Alperen Sengun on the verge of a breakout, with third-year forward Jabari Smith Jr. developing into an all-around player. Adding the 7-foot-2 Clingan likely would not propel the Rockets any closer to the immediate postseason contention they seek.

But trading the pick to someone who wants Clingan could elevate Houston. The value in this trifecta atop the NBA draft stems from how pot-committed the Rockets are. They need to reach the playoffs next year. Urgency comes with paying Fred VanVleet $42.8 million, Dillon Brooks $22.3 million, and Steven Adams $12.6 million.

Pick: Exact first three — Zaccharie Risacher, Alexandre Sarr, Donovan Clingan (+450 at FanDuel)

Other names to know

Perhaps the only sure thing in this draft is that Sarr will be picked in the Top 3. FanDuel’s odds for players who may go No. 4 overall list Sarr as the sixth-most likely, at +2,500.

In front of him are Risacher at +650 and Clingan at +380, with three other names to note.

Clingan’s UConn teammate Stephon Castle is most likely to go at No. 4, at +170. Keep in mind, though, some of his likelihood is that others — most notably Reed Sheppard at +330 and Clingan — are so strongly considered possibilities to go before No. 4. Then there is Matas Buzelis at +550.

If the San Antonio Spurs hold onto the pick, logic will argue in favor of Castle, the kind of young point guard that could develop as a complementary piece to Victor Wembanyama. An argument, however, can be made the better pick would be Sheppard, considered by some to be the best shooter in the draft.

Clingan is a higher-regarded prospect than either, which is why he makes such sense to go No. 3 overall if the Rockets trade their pick, more a genuine possibility than usual given that aforementioned urgency. If granting that premise, then Sheppard at No. 4 holds value.

Pick: Reed Sheppard as the No. 4 overall pick (+400 at DraftKings)
Or, Exact first four — Zaccharie Risacher, Alexandre Sarr, Donovan Clingan, Reed Sheppard (+550 at FanDuel)

On Bronny James

Before you ask, you will not hear Bronny James’ name anytime early Wednesday. DraftKings lists James at +15,000 to be a Top-5 pick, and FanDuel lists Bronny James draft odds at +10,000 to be a Top-10 pick. Don’t hold your breath.

Even simply hearing his name in Wednesday night’s first round is somewhat unlikely, +200 at DraftKings and +500 at FanDuel.

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