The NBA Finals get underway Tuesday, July 6, when the Phoenix Suns host the Milwaukee Bucks for Game 1 at Phoenix Suns Arena in Phoenix, Arizona. Both these teams are excellent on both ends of the floor this season, creating what should be a very competitive series for NBA betting.
Will Phoenix get off to a good start and handle their business in the opener? Keep reading our Bucks vs. Suns picks and predictions to find out.
(Editor's Note: These picks were made prior to the news that Giannis Antetokounmpo will play tonight.)
Bucks vs Suns game info
• Location: Phoenix Suns Arena, Phoenix, AZ
• Date: Tuesday, July 7, 2021
• Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC
Bucks vs Suns odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
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NBA sharp money and line movement report
By Patrick EversonPhoenix hit the BetMGM Nevada odds board as a 5.5-point favorite late Saturday night, went to -6 a couple of times and slipped back to the opener earlier this afternoon. "That went down when the Giannis news came out," BetMGM Nevada's Jeff Stoneback said, alluding to Bucks star Giannis Antetokounmpo being upgraded from doubtful to questionable for Game 1. As of 5 p.m. ET, the line remains Suns -5.5. "It's not a big decision. We do need the Bucks tonight, ticket count almost 2/1 and money about 3/2 on the Suns," Stoneback said. The total is out to 219 from a 217 opener. "Tickets are 3/2 on the Over, and money is almost equal, $200 more on the Over, so it doesn't matter for us on the total." In the championship futures market, BetMGM Nevada is good to both teams, though the Bucks are the better outcome.
Check out the full line movement for this gameBucks vs Suns series odds
Bucks: +145
Suns: -180
Bucks vs Suns betting preview
Injuries
Bucks: G Donte DiVincenzo (Out)
Suns: No injuries to report.
Find our latest NBA injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Suns are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games. Find more NBA betting trends for Bucks vs. Suns.
Against the spread (ATS) pick
The Bucks are likely in a bit of trouble as they head to Phoenix for the start of this series. Yahoo Sports’ Chris Haynes reported that Giannis Antetokounmpo likely would have gotten the go-ahead to play in a potential Game 7 against the Atlanta Hawks in the Eastern Conference Finals, but he's listed as doubtful for Game 1. Even if he does play, as a player that relies so much on his athleticism and strides, it’s hard to imagine him being as effective as usual when he’s not at full strength. The Suns will also have Deandre Ayton wall him off in this series, and the Phoenix big man has been something of a Giannis stopper in the past.
If Giannis isn’t playing to his fullest potential when he eventually returns, there’s going to be a lot of pressure on Khris Middleton and Jrue Holiday to perform. Both guys are more than capable of delivering, but they are also capable of turning in a dud. Coming off a series in which they were heavily favored to go on and advance, the heat is now on as they shift to the underdog role. Mikal Bridges should also be able to do a decent job of making life difficult for Middleton. He has the length and quickness to follow the Milwaukee wing around and contest everything. And at the same time, Chris Paul is also savvy enough to be in the right spots against Holiday.
Offensively, this series has Devin Booker written all over it. The Suns star had a really difficult time getting comfortable against Patrick Beverley. P.J. Tucker will likely try to give Booker some of that same pest-like intensity, but Tucker doesn’t have the foot speed to stay in front of Booker. With that said, it wouldn’t be too surprising if Holiday has to ultimately switch onto Booker in this series. However, that would allow Paul to go to work against a slower defender, which could mean an outburst like the ones he had in Game 4 against the Denver Nuggets and Game 6 against the Los Angeles Clippers.
Overall, the Suns should really be able to cruise to a win in Game 1. However, things will tighten up once Giannis returns and gets more confident in his movement.
PREDICTION: Suns -5.5 (-110)
Over/Under pick
Each of the last two games the Bucks played against the Hawks went Over the total, but Giannis wasn’t out there in those ones. And the previous three games went Under the total, showing that the defensive intensity was a bit higher in the games in which the 2020 Defensive Player of the Year was playing. Also, the Under is 10-6 in Milwaukee’s postseason games, and it’s also 9-7 in Phoenix’s.
These teams also have the two-best defensive ratings in the playoffs, so they know how to go out there and get stops. And being that these teams have almost zero combined NBA Finals experience, there should be a couple of games where nerves get the best of these guys. That could easily be the case in Game 1.
PREDICTION: Under 217.0 (-110)
First half prop pick
The Bucks had an extremely quick turnaround in this series, so they haven’t had all that much time to prepare for the Suns. On the other hand, Phoenix closed out its series last week, so the team was able to watch film on the two teams in the Eastern Conference Finals and really prepare to attack both of their weaknesses. Look for the Suns to come out and turn in a good effort, and don’t be shocked if they jump all over the Bucks in this one. Phoenix has a massive edge at head coach, where Monty Williams runs laps around Mike Budenholzer. The Suns also have one of the best crowds in the entire NBA, and the energy in Phoenix Suns Arena should fuel quite a few runs.
PREDICTION: Suns 1H -3.5 (-105)
Bucks vs Suns betting card
- Suns -5.5 (-110)
- Under 217.0 (-110)
- Suns 1H -3.5 (-105)
Picks made on 7/5/2021 at 12:05 a.m. ET
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